Coming together

Mr Clark told Australian Aviation he’s ready to buy and that the new variant ticked virtually all the boxes, saying: “The 777-9X will have greater range and greater lift than the A350-1000.”

According to Mr Clark, Boeing is proposing a significant upgrade that will include a new carbon-fibre composite wing with higher-aspect ratio, a lighter aluminium-lithium alloy fuselage and upgraded engines in the 100,000lb thrust class, with a fuel burn reduction of up to 8 per cent.

However, he’s becoming a bit impatient — he wants Boeing to build the 777-9X and the smaller -8X, pointing out that he had been ready to buy the new variants last year: “I have given Boeing a friendly earful about the delay in taking the models to the board.”

He concedes that Boeing has had its hands full with the 787 and the launch of the 737 MAX but stresses that they must not let the EIS slip. Mr Clark implored Boeing last year not only to listen to him but also to go to the market with the -9X and -8X to get detailed opinions.

He says the company was overwhelmed by the results and even non-777 operators were very interested, adding that he hopes the bullish feedback to Boeing will speed approval to launch the 777X series.

And in a sober message to Airbus, Mr Clark bluntly predicted that the 777X will outperform the A350-1000: “They’re different airplanes. The A350-1000 will adequately cover up to 10-hour flight which is about 80 per cent of our network. But we plan to shift more into the 13-to-18-hour mission range. And that’s frankly where it doesn’t quite stack up.”

Precise details are still closely guarded by Boeing but Flightglobal’s Jon Ostrower, a keen Boeing watcher, believes the company may offer three models — the -9X, -8X and -8LX for ultra-long range and this has been confirmed to Australian Aviation by Mr Clark.

The 777-8X fuselage would be a 4.46m stretch of the 777-200ER, seating 353 in a Boeing three-class configuration, with a range of 8,000nm (14,816km) and a 344-ton take-off weight, while the -8LX would have a 9,480nm (17,556km) range, slightly more than the -200LR.

Some say that Boeing will not commit to the -8LX but says he is very keen on the extra legs.

Mr Ostrower says the 777-9X will be 2.13m longer that the 777-300ER, seating up to 40 more economy passengers and giving a 20 per cent improvement in seat costs when combined with the engine improvements.

According to Mr Ostrower, all models will have a baseline composite wing of 71.1m with a 3.35m raked tip. Also being considered are a 65m and 68.6m spans wings with blended winglets. A 7m wing also is being studied with a folding 3.35m outer tip, reviving a design originally envisaged for the 777-200.

While ultra long-range operations have not proved economical, he claims that the fuel burn reduction on the -8LX is estimated to be a 14 per cent to 16 per cent improvement over the 777-300ER, which may finally open up for the first time routes such as London-Sydney. Qantas looked carefully at the 777-200LR in 2005 for such a mission but backed away on fuel burn concerns .

Aviation Week’s 777 expert Los Angeles-based Guy Norris, author of several books on the aircraft, told Australian Aviation considerable refinement is going into the design, predicting: “I believe the tail cone, empennage as well as the wing will be composite.

“The wing area will increase by about 10 per cent and also give the new models lower landing speed and a lower noise footprint.”.

Mr Norris says one of the keys to the success of the -8X and -9X will be the engine: “GE is going is use a composite fan slightly smaller than the 3.25m diameter fan on the current 777-300ER engine.”

He adds that in line with the trend toward smaller cores, it will have a smaller gas generator enabling a higher bypass ration of about 1:10. This compares with the 9.6:1 on the GEnx-1B and 7.08:1 on the GE-90-115B on the 777-300ER.

GE already has tested some concepts of the GE-9X and expects to run the first production model in 2016, which would dovetail with Boeing’s rollout of the 777-9X on 2017 with EIS in 2018.

Mr Norris says the GE-9X incorporates GEnx program technologies as well as the LEAP X and TechX families, along with other technology advances.

On the engine for the 777X models, he raises the prospect that there may be more than one offering, ending GE’s exclusivity. But he also claims that the GE90 is an awesome engine. “Quite frankly they [competitors] would have their work cut out.”

He adds that the 777X series engine needs to be in the 105,000lb-106,000lbs class for Emirates peak requirements: “We are talking to Boeing about that.”

Back to the future

Another major key to the development of the new model of the 777 is Alcoa’s breakthrough technologies for new aluminium alloys that lowers cost, weight and production risk, providing up to 10 per cent savings over composite-intensive planes.

Alcoa claims that the new alloy, announced in June last year, lowers manufacturing, operating and repair costs by up to 30 per cent versus composite- intensive planes.

The company says weight savings give a 12 per cent increase in fuel efficiency and claims the new alloy can deliver passenger comfort features equivalent to composite-intensive planes, including higher cabin pressure, large windows and higher humidity.

At the time of the announcement, just ahead of last year’s Paris Air Show, President of Alcoa North American Rolled Products Mick Wallis admitted that the 787 was a “huge wake-up call”, saying: “In hindsight, it was the right decision for the time, when advanced aluminium solutions were not as developed. But our technology solutions have made quantum leaps since those decisions.”
New solutions include third-generation aluminium lithium alloys that give in up to 7 per cent lower density in major structural applications as well as critically important corrosion resistance. Improvements in skin sheet aerodynamics cut skin friction drag by up to 6 per cent.

Additionally, new advanced structural technologies using forged, extruded and rolled products enable increased wing aspect ratio for improved fuel savings, providing up to 10 times the damage tolerance versus conventional alloys. This also allows increased cabin pressurisation for enhanced passenger comfort on par with all new aircraft structures in development today.

Commenting on the new alloys, Mr Clark believes that if these had been available earlier, the composite 787 and A350 would not have evolved as they did.

Handover of the 1000th

More than 5,000 employees, suppliers, customers and government officials celebrated the 1,000th 777 at a special event on March 2 at Boeing’s Everett, Washington site.

President and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes Jim Albaugh said: “As the largest 777 customer, it’s very appropriate that Emirates is the recipient of our milestone 1,000th 777. Emirates has set an industry high bar in providing excellent customer service and we’re honoured that the 777 is central to its efforts to be a global airline leader.”

Responding, Chairman and CEO of Emirates Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum said the 777’s advanced long-range capacity had been instrumental in the company’s success.

He said:”As the world’s largest operator of the 777, we have 93 more 777s on order, which is testament to our belief in the product and the role this aircraft will play in our goal to further establish Dubai as a central gateway to worldwide air travel.”

Taking the stage Larry Loftis, until recently Vice-President and General Manager of the 777 program, said: “The ultimate measure of success in this business is when you reach the 1,000 mark. Reaching this milestone requires two things,— a product that provides exceptional value and a world-class production system to reliably bring that product to the marketplace – and we have both on the 777 program.

“As a result, the 777 program reached this milestone faster than any other twin-aisle airplane because of the 777’s proven performance, exceptional value, continuous innovation and progressive environmental performance.”

The first 777 delivered was a 777-200, to United Airlines, on May 15, 1995. Boeing’s 747 and 767 took 24 and 25 years respectively to get to 1,000 deliveries.

The 777 backlog is 370 aircraft and last year Boeing sold a record 200 to 22 customers – topping the previous record of 154 set in 2005. Production is now at an all-time high for the program and a 20 per cent rate increase begins in September, increasing from seven to eight point-three aircraft a month by early 2013.

Ramp up

And an even greater production rate may well be on the horizon, suggests Boeing’s Director of Manufacturing Jason Clark, who credits lean production with huge gains. He said: “The eight point-three rate would have been considered impossible just five years ago. It now takes us 49 days to build a 777, down from 66 days.”

Since 2003 Boeing has reduced factory flow time by 26 per cent and factory unit hours by 25 per cent. The inventory turn rate has dropped by a huge 86 per cent, resulting in an inventory turn rate of 26 times a year.

Mr Clark says Boeing has spent almost two years planning the rate increase but cautions that any further increase will require careful planning, suggesting the next logical step would be 10.4 a month.

He acknowledges that Boeing is yet to feel the real benefit flow-through of the recently negotiated four-year deal with the International Aerospace Machinists union, which reflects what Boeing terms “a new era” of working together between the company and its IAM-represented employees.

The agreement includes a US$5,000 signing bonus payable immediately upon ratification, an annual general pay rise of 2 per cent and a new incentive plan that targets yearly bonuses from 2 to 4 per cent of gross earnings, depending on performance.

Mr Clark is delighted with the deal and expects it to be a win-win for the employees and Boeing, adding: “It has changed the dynamics.”
Long life

New York-based Bernstein Research says in a client report that the 777 is benefiting from the A350 delays: “The opportunity for an extended life for the 777 is analogous to what Airbus has enjoyed on the A330 with 787 delays.

“The 777 has become a favourite of nearly all large widebody operators, with
attractive economics and reliability (our airline input indicates dispatch reliability above 99 per cent). The airplane also allows 10 abreast seating in economy (not possible in an A350), which some airlines (e.g.Emirates) are using to capture even better seat-mile economics. Furthermore, the aircraft is popular with crews on long-haul flights.”

Bernstein is bullish on the 777-8X/9X for the 2018 timeframe, saying such an aircraft probably would have significant changes such as stretched fuselage or modified wing but that this would be far less costly than having to do an all-new aircraft.

Bernstein suggests delays in the A350 or performance shortfalls could make it relatively easy for Boeing to continue building the 777 into the next decade. The research company is lukewarm on the A350, warning that there are “big challenges ahead with delays, excess weight, and an unpopular A350-1000 solution”.

It says that in principle, the A350 should be the long-term winner among large widebodies, with Airbus projecting 25 per cent fuel burn improvement relative to the 777. But it stresses: “We believe that for several important customers some of the promise of the A350 is fading.

“The A350 with a composite airframe was intended to compete against the larger 787 (787-9) and the 777 with three derivatives. The idea was to have a common engine and airframe across an unusually large stretch of derivatives. Now, however, Rolls Royce and Airbus have recognised that a common core is not possible across the required thrust range.”

According to Bernstein, the “aircraft appears to be too heavy to make the A350-800 attractive and Airbus has worked hard to move customers from the A350-800 to the A350-900”.

The researchers say customers have told them the A350 design is more overweight than most new aircraft at this stage: “Airbus management acknowledges that early airplanes will be heavy but stresses that weight
can be reduced.”
Bernstein also reports some customers have expressed skepticism about Airbus’s ability to stay within even a 12-month delay,much less the recently announced six-month hold-up, saying: “The 777 presents a real threat if the A350 cannot deliver on promised performance.

“Because the 777-300ER is larger, assuming the current plan for the A350-1000, and can operate at 10 abreast in economy, its economics are compelling. But the 777 is also mature, efficient, and highly reliable. The 777 stands as a safe option for airlines if the A350 becomes too challenged.”

But Bernstein also notes Airbus management is adamant the A350 will deliver as promised.

The final word goes to Emirates President Tim Clark, who told Australian Aviation that both manufacturers should stop worrying about each other’s offerings and get on and build, imploring: “Believe in what you have and go for it.”