long term decisions Capital investment decisions are taken with an eye to the long term. (Rob Finlayson)
A sustainable future?
Where to now for regional aviation? It is possible in the medium to long term that the resources ‘boom’ will enter a more mature phase as China, India and other developing economies continue to take steps to manage their growth, albeit still at high levels.
This will bring more certainty to the export market and encourage regional aviation companies to make the longterm capital expenditure decisions that are inevitable for all successful players. This is not just about engines and airframes, but expensive avionics calls also have to be factored in. Such decisions can have an impact over 10-20 years and are taken very carefully.
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Boom/bust cycles make these decisions hard, but a maturing market can increase confidence levels for senior management.
In one sense everyone can gain from such a market maturation. Larger companies are encouraged to buy/lease new aircraft, offering newer operators the opportunity to access more modern equipment no longer required by those companies choosing to upgrade. Service and comfort levels for passengers improve which further encourages people to fly. Freight volumes grow and increase their reliability through better equipment.
Without getting too carried away by this ‘virtuous circle’ argument, the increasing sophistication of our major trading partners will inevitably lead to more sustainable growth across regional aviation.
On the domestic front there is some evidence that regional councils are refocussing on their airports. This infrastructure could be as important to them as the roads and rail lines leading into their towns and cities. With the new satellitebased approach technologies being rolled out around the world, close to ILS standard approaches could be a reality for many communities. Bad weather is inevitable in aviation, but these new approaches will bring even more certainty to RPT and freight services. In addition, it could also improve the attractiveness of regional airfields for serious commercial training. Given that somewhere over 450,000 new pilots will be required world-wide over the next 20 years, that’s 23,000 new pilots per year, the potential for the regional training market is breathtaking.
Another challenge is to attract high calibre young people to take up an aviation career.
Pilots are just one avenue, but new engineers, air traffic controllers, managers, customer service, technical and security staff are required sooner rather than later. We need to market the industry strategically to a different generation. Maybe we need to invest in some top level advice from the best marketing companies. Sure it is expensive initially, but such an industry investment now may secure the right people we need to grow regional aviation, and inevitably aviation in general.
As mentioned in previous columns, operators are keen to regrow some of the regional routes that have been lost over the past 20 years. Hard-nosed business decisions will be the final arbiter, but operators are beginning to look at what is possible rather than what they need to close down.
Some government encouragement regarding capital depreciation rates could go a long way to assist in the regional route rebuild. We have a new government and it is time for a fresh start. Let’s hope that the same sentiment can apply to regional aviation. n Australian Aviation is proud to be the official supporting journal of the Regional Aviation Association of Australia. The views in this column are those of the RAAA, and not necessarily Australian Aviation’s.
Boom/bust cycles make these decisions hard, but a maturing market can increase confidence levels.
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