Prop driven

The growth in turboprops is also pushing the two manufacturers to once again examine the market for 90-seater props.

It now appears that with maturing engine technologies that larger regional turboprops may hit the market in the next two to three years, with the major focus on utilising the aircraft instead of regional jets on shorter, high density routes.

While the larger manufacturers look upwards, manufacturers in Asia and Russia have also been looking to gain a slice of the 50 and 70-seat markets. China’s Xian Aircraft Company offers its 60-seat MA600, which is a development of the Y-7 (itself largely based on the Antonov An-24).

While it will be pushed for export, support issues are likely to mean that its success outside of China will be limited.

Most recently, Korea Aerospace Industries has indicated that it is looking to develop a large turboprop, with some reports that it could take a concept to market as soon as next year, although details remain sketchy at present.

There have also been some interesting developments towards the 19-seat utility market. This has been evidenced by the recent revivals of the De Havilland Canada Twin Otter and Dornier 228. Both types had long been out of production, but are now back on line with updated avionics, engines and other enhancements which will see these venerable designs fly on.

Closer to home, GippsAero’s recent securing of new investment from India’s Mahindra Aerospace appears to have secured the relaunch of the former GAF Nomad, which has now been designated as the GA18. It too will receive new Rolls-Royce turboprops and an updated flightdeck.

Elsewhere, Indonesian Aerospace has announced plans to develop a new 19-seat twin turboprop which would be aimed at local airlines and utility operators.

But it is not planning to export the proposed aircraft and is unlikely to pursue foreign certification.

But despite this activity in turboprop development in the past few years, Australian operators appear still likely to face issues over the coming years with replacing large parts of the regional fleet as aircraft reach the end of their economic lives, particularly in the vital 19 and 30-seater categories.

Old is new again

With few new designs for smaller utility turboprops emerging and an increasing number of aircraft reaching the end of their economic lives, new types have come on the market, albeit updated versions of older aircraft aimed more at niche markets.

British Columbia based Viking Air acquired the type certifications for the legacy De Havilland Canada aircraft fromBombardier in 2005. Initially focused on supporting the aircraft, the company saw an increasing need to provide a replacement for the Twin Otter, which with its legendary short takeoff and landing capabilities made it a clear leader in utility roles for over 40 years, and so it launched the Twin Otter Series 400 in April 2007.

Outwardly, the unpressurised Series 400 is largely similar to the previous -300 model Twin Otter and retains the distinctive high wing and fixed tricycle undercarriage (floats are also available as an option).

The improvements though are significant, with the aircraft receiving upgraded Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-34 engines producing 750shp (559kW), with an option for the higher rated -35 engine, as well as a new Honeywell Primus Apex avionics suite. Viking has also integrated some composites in non-load bearing structures of the aircraft, such as the doors.

Production of the aircraft has involved its challenges, with most of the original production jigs and assembly tools having already been disposed of before Viking took over the type certificates for the Twin Otter. Instead, the company has had to rely on old drawings, video recordings, and also the memories of former DHC workers to recreate the production processes for the aircraft.

The first flight of the first new build Twin Otter took place in February this year. The aircraft received type certification in late July, with the first aircraft delivered to Switzerland based operator Zimex Aviation shortly afterwards.

So far, the type has been a strong sales success, with a number of aircraft sold to existing Twin Otter operators. Perth based business operator AvWest is currently the only identified Australian customer, but Viking is understood to be keen to market the aircraft in the country for both regional passenger and utility operations.

Another 19-seater which is experiencing a revival is the Dornier 228, which is now being assembled and marketed by Swiss owned aerospace conglomerate RUAG Aerospace at Oberpfaffenhofen in Germany.

Like the Series 400 Twin Otter, the Do228NG (New Generation) features some major upgrades to the basic Dornier 228-212, the last of which was delivered in 1999. Key elements include a new five bladed composite propeller driven by Honeywell TPE331-10 engines. In addition, the aircraft features a new glass cockpit with updated navigation and communications systems, and a new cabin layout with seating for up to 19 passengers.

“We have done around 350 modifications to improve the aircraft where it makes sense,” Ruag Aerospace Services managing director Wolfgang Neumann told Flight International in June.

The first Do228NG made its first flight in November 2009, and at the time of writing it was expected that the aircraft would receive type certification by the end of August, with the first deliveries expected in September.

The aircraft has received a number of orders from commuter airlines and government agencies, predominately in Europe.

Local agent Ian Blackie of Carluke International told Australian Aviation that there is also one order and strong interest from potential operators in Australia.

While the Do228NG and Twin Otter are similarly sized, the Do228 has some major performance advantages with a 50kt higher cruise speed, a 700kg higher maximum takeoff weight, and the ability to carry up to seven additional passengers on a typical mission over ranges of up to 450nm.

But its pricetag of over E5m (A$7m) likely places it out of reach of most Australian regional airlines.

Regional airliners

At the larger airliner end of the market, ATR and Bombardier have maintained their duopoly with their ATR 42 and 72 and Q400 respectively, while both manufacturers are looking to push into larger turboprops utilising new technologies.

ATR has been progressing with its development of the -600 series of both the 46‑seat ATR 42 and 72-seat ATR 72 (see title pic). The new versions of the aircraft, which feature a new Thales avionics suite, upgraded PW127M engines and new cabin enhancements, have both flown, with the aircraft expected to start deliveries from mid 2011.

At the recent Farnborough Airshow, the manufacturer displayed a new interior concept for the -600 series which was developed in consultation with Italian design house Giugiaro (see image in Newsdesk this issue). As well as new seats and increased storage space, there are also options for a jetway capable front door, as well as a business class cabin with a 2+1 configuration.

So far, no customers have been linked to the concept.

Bombardier’s Q400 NextGen is also continuing along strongly, although recent sales have been relatively sparse. Nevertheless, existing operators are lining up for repeat orders, with Qantas recently ordering a further seven Q400s, while Canadian operator Porter Airlines ordered four in August.

As well as their existing product lines, both Bombardier and ATR have been showing signs that they see the future of regional turboprops in pushing higher, with both understood to be working on concepts for 90-seat turboprops.

Interestingly, indications are that the engine manufacturers are also preparing to provide new turboprops with the power needed for larger regional aircraft. Previously it was concerns about the ability to provide a capable engine which had held back pushing above the 70-seat class threshold.

“You know we are discussing with two to three engine manufacturers but not just general discussions, but in a very detailed way, and namely Pratt & Whitney and General Electric and they have very, very interesting things for us,” said ATR’s head of marketing Mario Formica at a conference in May.

General Electric is understood to be working on proposals stemming from the GE38 engine which is used to power the Sikorsky CH-53K Sea Stallion heavylift helicopter. “Currently our thought process is to utilise the core size defined by the GE38 and use that for potential opportunities,” GE’s general manager of the CF34 turbofan Chuck Nugent told Flightglobal earlier this year.

Pratt & Whitney Canada also noted at the Farnborough Airshow that it had started development of an advancedturboprop, with the expectation that it will deliver double-digit reductions in fuel burn compared to current generation engines, such as the PW100 series. Recently, executives from P&WC have noted that the manufacturer is leaning towards utilising some of the technology from the PW1000G geared turbofan.

ATR has previously said it expects that a 90-seater would be a new design rather than a stretch of the ATR 72, while it has also speculated that the new aircraft could feature a composite fuselage. The latest indications are that ATR may move to launch a 90-seater next year, with an expected first delivery in 2016.

As ATR pushes ahead for a likely launch, Bombardier has been less committal about plans to launch the Q400X, which it has been studying for a number of years. At the recent Farnborough Airshow it refused to commit to a likely launch or delivery date, nor was any detail included in its main presentation. The company’s vice president marketing for commercial aircraft Philippe Poutissou said at this stage the company was still engaging with customers about a 90-seat aircraft, despite previously indicating that it could launch such an aircraft around 2013-14.

The market for a larger Q400 is expected to be concentrated primarily among existing North American and European operators of the Q400. Qantas could also be expected to be a buyer, as a number of routes currently operated by Q400s will likely grow to support a larger aircraft in the near future.

The move up into 90-seater turboprops could hurt some of the market for regional jets. However, that has not prompted Bombardier’s rival in the market, Embraer, to make a return to the turboprop market.

“We consulted many airlines and we don’t see the turboprop case moving forward satisfactorily in the future,” Luiz Chiessi, Embraer vice-president market intelligence said at Farnborough.

Local Pressures

While there are some encouraging signs and new turboprops coming into both the top and bottom ends of the market, Australian operators are still facing major dilemmas when it comes to replacing their long serving aircraft.

Locally, types such as the Fairchild Metroliner, EMB-120, Dash 8-100/200 and Saab 340 have formed the backbone of the regional aircraft fleet. With all these types now long out of production, they will require replacement at some point in the future.

For those carriers able to purchase new aircraft, it appears ATR and Bombardier will continue to be the only credible suppliers.

But with Bombardier cutting production of the 50-seat Q300 and 37‑seat Q200 last year, the 45-seat ATR 42 is now the smallest mainstream regional turboprop airliner still in production.

While ATR has achieved limited success in Australia due to the large numbers of Dash 8s in the country, the manufacturer has in recent years noted that in the future there may be a sizable market for the ATR 42 as operators look to replace 34-seat aircraft such as the Saab 340s, with Regional Express an obvious target. ATR has also previously commented that Rex may need the larger ATR 72 in future, particularly due to the need to maximise slots at Sydney Airport.

Should operators be forced into larger aircraft, it would have some major impacts on Australia’s regional route network with concerns that some smaller centres will lose their services. This builds on a long trend, which has seen the number of regional passengers increase, although the number of regional centres receiving air services has been decreasing since the 1980s. Many have attributed this to the move towards larger aircraft, while a lack of replacements for nine-seater regional aircraft has also played its part.

At the smaller end of the market, the new Twin Otter and Do228NG have the capacity and configuration for passenger operations, but they are not expected to present themselves as genuine replacements for most Australian regional airliners, given the Viking 400’s utility bent and the Do228NG’s cost.

Many operators may have to turn to life extension programs for their existing aircraft.

In October 2009 Bombardier started an Extended Service Program to extend the life of Dash 8-100s, which will increase the life of the aircraft from 80,000 to 120,000 flight cycles. The manufacturer estimates that for the oldest aircraft in the fleet, it will add at least 10 years life.

Given the large number of Dash 8-100s already in use around Australia, particularly in places such as northern Queensland and WA, it appears a favourable option provided it is cost effective.

Current trends, which have seen older, out of production aircraft replaced with younger but still out of production aircraft, will likely continue too. In the 19-seat category, one contender is the Beechcraft 1900D, which could play a role in replacing a number of Metroliners in future.

So far, the aircraft has had limited penetration into the Australian market, with 10 1900Ds and four of the smaller cabin 1900Cs currently on the Australian register.

Awesome Aviation, which is the local representative for 1900D lessor Raytheon Airline Aviation Services, believes the aircraft has major positives for Australian operators. “The exceptional value retention of the Beechcraft 1900 over the years bears testimony to the fact that the aircraft is a money spinner for its operators,” CEO Dieter Ebeling told Australian Aviation.

A comparison shows that the 1900D has lower direct operating costs compared to the Metro 23, thanks largely to lower maintenance costs. However, the higher lease and acquisition costs of moving into newer equipment is challenging for many operators already operating on wafer-thin margins.

Overall, the development of new and renewed turboprops shows there is certainly still life in what was once thought of as old technology. How Australian operators will take to the new generation of aircraft remains to be seen, but with the current regional fleet hitting the end of their economic lives soon, some tough decisions will have to be made.