Bridge To Where?

So the Supers launch the RAAF into a new era. With its ability to self escort and buddy tank, a package of Rhinos has similar strategic reach to the F-111; with its third greater internal fuel capacity the Super can fly further, carry more and fight longer than the classic Hornets, both in the air-to-air and air-to-ground domains; with its AESA radar, ATFLIR pod and datalink capability, the Super can see further than either the classic or F-111, and pass targeting information over secure datalinks, making the Supers information ‘force multipliers’, increasing the capabilities of existing ADF assets, in particular operating as a package with classic Hornets; and just by virtue of being a young airframe, coupled with its advanced self diagnostics abilities, the Super should enjoy availability rates the envy of classic Hornet squadrons.

So the Supers give the RAAF much greater strategic weight and depth. Add to that the Wedgetail AEW&C platforms and the KC-30 tanker transports, and by the time the Super Hornet force achieves full operational capability at the end of 2012, in relative terms the RAAF will be more capable than at any time in its post WW2 history.

Still, as has been discussed in Australian Aviation many times, and as Andrew McLaughlin explores in his Defence Update column this issue (p88), the Super Hornet acquisition raises as many questions as it answers, given it has been purchased as a ‘bridging’ fighter to cover the transition from the F-111’s retirement to an all-JSF force in a decade’s time.

Since the Mirage entered service in the mid 1960s all RAAF fast jets have had service careers spanning two to three decades, not one. (The lease of 24 F-4E Phantoms in the early 1970s to cover delays to the F-111’s delivery doesn’t directly compare to the Super Hornet situation today – the Super Hornets have been purchased outright, the Phantoms were leased, and the RAAF’s F-111s had already been built and were stored in the US awaiting fixes to F-111 technical issues. ) So it seems almost inevitable that the Super Hornet will be in RAAF service longer than a decade, especially given the current travails of the JSF program, where announcements of delays and cost increases have been a regular occurrence since December when Australia committed to buy its first batch of 12 F-35A JSFs.

The next year or two seem critical for the F-35 program, and Australia’s commitment to a 100 JSF force, especially since Pentagon acquisition head Ashton Carter acknowledged to the powerful US Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) on March 11 that the JSF’s unit cost per aircraft had grown by over 50 per cent since 2002 and by 17 per cent since 2007. Indeed a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report presented to the SASC said that the unit cost of an F-35A in 2002 was projected to be about US$50m, but that blew out to US$69m in 2007 and is now at more than US$80m in 2002 dollars, or more than US$112m in today’s dollars based on projected production numbers averaged out over the life of the program.

That begs the question, is at US$110m plus, the F-35A twice the aircraft the US$55m or so F/A-18F is? For now, the government thinks so, with Defence Minister John Faulkner releasing a statement in light of the SASC hearings confirming “that the government remains confident the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is the right choice for the Australian Defence Force’s next generation air combat capability, and will enable the Australian Defence Force to maintain its strategic air combat capability advantage out to 2030. ” Said the Minister, “Australian Defence planning has always adopted a cautious approach to JSF cost estimates by factoring in significant amounts of contingency funds to deal with cost risks. ” And the fighter debate is certainly a much more complicated issue than just simple aircraft unit costs – there are aircraft capability, pilot training, logistics support, basing infrastructure and a dozen other factors for consideration.

But the more the JSF’s price increases and the project is delayed, the less likely an all-JSF RAAF fighter force seems of being realised any time soon.

In the meantime, we hope you enjoy our expansive coverage of the Super Hornet’s delivery in this issue, which begins from p32. We’re witnessing the start of a new era, but how it ends is not yet clear.