Testing times for JSF

Gates sacked JPO head Major General David Heinz in the process, and reportedly has lined up three-star Vice Admiral David Venlet, the current commander of the Naval Air Systems Command, to replace him.

“Progress and performance of the F-35 over the past two years has not been what it should, as a number of key goals and benchmarks were not met,” Gates told media. “It’s clear there were more problems than we were aware of when I visited Fort Worth. ” As part of the restructure, the procurement of development F-35s will be slowed and spread further out, and full rate production will now not commence until 2016, bringing into serious doubt planned IOC dates for all three US services, and placing greater pressure on ‘buffers’ put in place by partner nations such as Australia (see March 2010 AA). Subsequently, USAF Secretary Michael Donley confirmed that month that the USAF’s planned IOC had slipped to late 2015.

“We understand what’s expected – there is a clear set of performance and milestone criteria – and we are confident we will achieve them,” Lockheed Martin officials said in a statement.

Lockheed says the delivery of development aircraft to test centres at NAS Pax River and Edwards AFB is six months behind the latest schedule released in late 2008, and recently released figures confirm the 13 test aircraft now scheduled to fly by September 2010 are running a total of 1929 days late to achieve their first flights, or an average of 148 days each. But this does not take into account the fact that many development F-35s have subsequently been grounded for extended periods after achieving their first flights.

The program has 1200 test flights scheduled for FY10 (October 1 to September 30), but by mid February had completed fewer than 30 flights.

These delays have been attributed to hold-ups in deliveries of parts and components by suppliers, many of which have been caused by design changes by Lockheed Martin. Because of these delays to the flight test program, the Pentagon has moved US$2. 8bn (A$3. 1bn) in funding from procurement to the development side of the program, thus placing further pressure on production unit costs.

In the same week, the Pentagon also released a preview of its Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) which predicts the USAF will require just 11 wings of theatre support combat aircraft to replace F-16s and A-10s, or only 792 aircraft, as opposed to the 1763 F-35s the USAF has previously said it requires and upon which the average unit cost has been based.

Even taking into account training, test and attrition aircraft over the life of the program, the total USAF requirement is unlikely to exceed 1200 F- 35As based on these numbers, putting at risk the entire costing model of the JSF program.

Lockheed Martin officials at February’s Singapore Airshow scrambled to say the USAF was also looking to replace some of its F-15 fighters with F-35s as well, although many observers remained unconvinced.

Locally, Defence Minister John Faulkner applauded Gates’s moves, saying he “welcomes the decisive action… by the US government to reduce risk in the F-35 JSF program,” adding that, “The Australian government’s staged acquisition approach to the JSF, commencing with the acquisition of 14 aircraft, has strongly mitigated risk in relation to this vital program. As part of the government’s JSF acquisition strategy, significant cost and schedule buffers were built into Australia’s project in anticipation of the steps announced in the US today. ” JSF faces another hurdle in the April timeframe, with the USAF Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz conceding in late February that the program is “possibly, maybe even likely” headed for a Nunn-McCurdy breach, meaning the program will be subject to further scrutiny if it breaches a 50 per cent cost overrun threshold for the average unit cost of the aircraft.

This breach could, in theory, see the program cancelled, but much more likely is it will need to be recertified by the Pentagon if there are no alternatives, that costs can be controlled moving forward, and if the F-35 is found to be vital to US national security.