Pilot numbers in decline

In the good news department the number of aeroplane ATPL holders has risen by 654 since 2004 while helicopter ATPL, CPL and PPL holders have also risen over that five year period. The rise in the helicopter licence holders reflects the steady expansion of the Australian helicopter industry.

Helicopter ATPL licence holders were for the year 2004 – 429, 2005 – 433, 2006 – 500, 2007 – 551, 2008 – 544 and 2009 – 616. These figures indicate the increased number of pilots able to fly the heavier and multi engined helicopters entering the local scene. Commercial helicopter pilots went from 930 in 2004 to 1507 in 2009.

Private helicopter pilots increased from 376 in 2004 to 564 in 2009.

Commercial balloon pilots have changed very little. In 2004 there were 90 but by 2009 the figure had only increased to 103. This might indicate a flattening off in commercial balloon activities.

It is to be noted that in 2006 CASA took back the issuing of student pilot licences from Chief Flying Instructors. From that year CASA included the number of students in the figures but by including them in the total the numbers are inflated compared to the previous years. The totals given below in this survey do not include the no-qualification student pilots. Of the student pilot licences in 2006 there were 4345, 6038 in 2007 and 6736 in 2008. Figures were not available for 2009. The higher number for 2008 could indicate an increase in people learning to fly or simply that there are a large number of people that commenced flight training but have now dropped out. The class two medical for people aged 40 or less runs for four years.

In the fixed wing area there were 6028 ATPL holders in 2004. This had risen to 6564 in 2008 and to 6682 in 2009. Commercial pilots numbered 4019 in 2004. This rose to 4220 in 2005, dropped to 3712 in 2006 and dropped again in 2007 to 3686. In 2008 the number climbed to 4103 and to 4235 in 2009.

Private fixed wing licence holders numbered 15,498 in 2004, to 11,448 in 2007, 11,041 in 2008 and 10,949 in 2009. Overall a drop of 4549 in five years. Student pilot GFPT licence holders went from 4564 in 2004 to 3085 in 2007, 3005 in 2008 to 3002 in 2009.

A new inclusion in the 2009 figures is that for the first time there are now six multi-crew (MPL) licence holders. No doubt this number will rise in the coming years.

The total numbers in this survey do not include the student (no GFPT) licence holders. The figures thus are; 2004 – 32,965, 2005 – 32,696, 2006 – 31,423, 2007 – 27,234, 2008 – 28,285 and 27,678 in 2009.

Numbers are figures and as such can be read several ways. The aviation interest by the baby boomers of the 1940s and 1950s has peaked with age and is now on the wane. The new wave of Generation X and Y are not as interested in aviation as they are in other things to spend their time and money on.

Potential pilot trainees of today will typically have had a serious look at what time study and cost they will have to outlay in order become a pilot. For those looking at becoming a commercial pilot there will be a serious comparison of what a qualified pilot can earn compared to other vocations.

In Australia the pilot numbers are influenced by the number of oversees trainees who come to this country to obtain a commercial licence and then return home.

Given the current decreased demand for new pilots in those countries we may see a flattening off in the overseas training market.

At present the world recession is having a marked effect on aviation. A few airlines have departed the scene and most are shrinking or at best maintaining a steady-as-she-goes attitude compared to the expansion boom of some three years ago. A result of this has been the curb on pilot recruiting by the airlines. This has influenced the plans of some people who had previously planned to become commercial pilots.

The figures show a marked rise in helicopter pilots reflecting growth in the commercial rotary wing sector. On the other hand the private pilot PPL(A) figures for the years 2004 to 2009 show a 29.4% drop in numbers. This could be caused by cost, increasing regulation and greater interest in recreational aviation (RA) flying with its lower costs, to name but a few factors.

On the commercial side the big question is will the number of pilots available be enough to cater for the demand when it picks up?

Contact Dave by email at [email protected]