Debrief

But Virgin Blue Holds the Edge on the Reverse Scenario on the Brisbane- Rockhampton Sector, Which Has Become a Hot E-jet Versus Dash 8 Route. At Rockhampton, Virgin Blue Has Reversed the Standard Pattern of Aircraft Originating in the Mornings and Terminating in the Evenings in the Regions – This Meets the Far Higher Yield ‘full Day in the Capital’ Demand, and is Repeated at Near 30 Cities and Towns Around Eastern Australia. Instead, Virgin Blue’s Approach, Repeated at Albury, Saves Costs and Sees Aircraft Overnight at Crew and Maintenance Bases.

Virgin’s Entry to Mildura- Melbourne, Another Potential 150,000 Pax Per Year E-jet Sector, Hardly Surprised. And Given the Bad Taste Left After Qantas’s Decision to Close Its Former Southern Australia Airlines Maintenance Base at Mildura, Virgin’s Move is Well Timed.

Mildura’s Single Off-peak Daily E-jet Will Stimulate Demand, but Will Leave High Yielding Peak Time Flights Untouched. However, Should the Airline Decide to Widely Contest the Standard Peak Timing Pattern, the Resultant War Between E-jets and Dash 8s Would Dilute High Yield Fares, Which Rex Would Have to Match, Losing the Only Advantage It Has Against a Jet.

Newcastletamworth & Lean Routes

Tamworth-newcastle Has Been Intermittently Served Over Many Years by Several Carriers Using Equipment Ranging From 14-seat Lockheed Hudsons to a Variety of Nine to 19-seat Twins. But the Route Has Always Struggled Against Road Connections.

The Latest Entrant, Aeropelican, Recently Gave Tamworth Residents a Fair ‘use It or Lose It’ Ultimatum, Accompanied by a Minor Schedule Change to Serve Higher Demand Days.

Meanwhile, Aeropelican’s Inverell-sydney Run Loaded Only 6000 Passengers in 2007/08, Only 40 Per Cent of Its Long Term Average of Earlier Years, Using 30+ Seat Full Service Aircraft, and is Occasionally Being Routed via Williamtown. Should Inverell-sydney Prove Unviable Against Nearby Armidale-sydney, Especially if Serious Competition Recommences There, the Outlook is Bleak.

When Newcastle Was Linked to Sydney From Belmont and Williamtown, About 20 18-to-36 Seat Daily Return Flights Carrying About 180,000 Pax Per Year Were Plying the Route. (by Comparison, Williamtown-sydney Now Averages a Flat 50,000 Pax Per Year).

But There is a Finite Limit to How Much Transports and Fighters Can Be Mixed, More So With Live Weapons, as Any Pilot, Controller or Air Defence Officer Who Worked in Darwin, Also a Joint User Airport, During the Confrontation or the Later Massive Multi-nation Air Defence or Mobility Exercises, Will Attest.

Had a Turboprop Capable Airport Been Built at Redhead as Once Proposed, the Present 150 Weekly Aeropelican and Brindabella Turboprop Flights Could Have Stayed There, Leaving the Increasingly Precious Williamtown Slots for Jets and Qantaslink’s Recently Reintroduced Brisbane Q400s, as Unlike Most Capital City Airports, There is Reportedly Little Feed to or From Them to the Jets.

Virgin Blue

the Share Market Has Certainly Given Virgin Blue Shares a Rough Ride – First an “unfortunate” Financial Assessment and Skyrocketing Fuel Slashed Shares 70 Per Cent to Below 50 Cents, Then Toll Announced Out.

But Then as Oil Prices Fell the Share Price Soared to $1. 17, Only to Halve in 48 Hours of Heavy Selling After the “low Profit/no Dividend/ Tough Outlook” Result.

By Contrast, Qantas Rose on Heavier Buying After a Good Result. Only the Original Founders Have Really Profited From Virgin Blue Shares.

Phantom Cancelled Flights?

The Number of Recent Short Notice Domestic Cancellations, Including Peak Time Flights, Equates to About Four Aircraft Per Day Idle Across the Big Three Airlines.

There Are Also Many Regional International Cancellations, and With Reports of Half Full Aircraft, Which Indicates Things May Not Be as Good as Some Pr Spin Doctors Might Have Us Believe. If Costs of Living Continue to Rise and the Predicted Softening of the Minerals Boom Have Any Credence, More Capacity Reductions Will Follow.