Do Jetstar’s baggage add-on charges represent a de facto fare rise to compensate for the increasing costs of fuel? (Paul Sadler)

Debrief

Virgin Blue – Where to Now?

Toll Holdings’s Decision to Walk Away From Virgin Blue by “gifting” Its Holding to Its Shareholders as the Share Price Sinks Offers Salvation, but Also Raises Some Serious Questions.

Virgin Blue Will Likely Remain a Strong Viable Competitor Against Qantas Group’s Mainline Domestic Operation.

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But in the Long Haul Market, Where All is Doom and Gloom, How Far Should V Australia Spread, or Even Start? Sydney and Brisbane to Los Angeles Routes Might Be All That Are Now Prudent, but They Would Appear to Require a Fourth 777 to Cover Unscheduled Maintenance or Delays, but for Which There is Insufficient Utilisation Elsewhere to Justify.

Similarly, the E-jets, Other Than Where (or When) the 737s Are Too Large, Might Well Be Limited to Those Few Regional Routes With About 150,000 Passengers Per Year and Where Competition is Either Nonexistent or Ineffective. This Has Likely Taken Some Heat Off Rex’s Share Price.

Toll’s Institutional Holders, Who Were Long Opposed to Owning Vb, Will Receive Around 40 Per Cent of the Airline’s Shares and Can Be Expected to Sell, Possibly at a Profit to Their Dividend Cost Base – Something Long Suffering Private Vb Holders Won’t Get – Hopefully as a Block to a Strong Established Airline Operator, Leaving That Buyer and Virgin Group in Control.

Clever Jetstar

There Appears to Be No Limit to Fuel Driven Innovative Fare and Baggage Add-on Charges (in Essence De Facto Fare Rises), but Jetstar Has Produced a Good One With Its 10kg Free Overhead Locker Allowance, or 20kg Checked Underfloor for $10. For Every 100 People Packing Under 10kg, This Frees Up 1000kg of Underfloor Capacity, Where 1000kg of Checked Bags Will Earn $500, or, Far Better for Qantas’s Bottom Line, Freeing Space for One Australian Air Express 1000kg Freight Container at Around $10 Per Kg.

Vip Tankers

for Now It is Likely That No Kc-30 Tanker Would Ever Go on a Vip Tasking While Any Likely Military or Civil Defence Need Existed.

As It is, Many Question Whether the Five Kc-30s We Will Get Could Meet the Raaf’s Tanker Needs, as Its ‘client’ Fixed Wing Types Will Reach More Than 120 Units if Only 75 F-35s or Equivalent Are Ordered, and Many More if We Get 100 Jsfs and the C-130 and Caribou Replacements Are Also Air-to-air Refuelling Capable.

Nominating Two Tankers for Vip Configuration Would Be Essential for Full Coverage for Those Times When One is Away or Undergoing Heavy Maintenance, Leaving Just Three for the Primary Task of Air-to-air Tanking. The Question of the Vip Cabin Can Really Only Be Adequately Solved by Converting Two Kc-30s to a Vip Configuration, or Better Still Buying Two More Aircraft as Fully Convertible Tanker Transport/ Vip Versions Based on the New A330-200f Freighter.

The Latter Would, via Standard Floor Pallet Mounted Seats and Fittings, Enable Rapid Configuration Changes to Meet Any Role Including Where the Basic Five Proved Inadequate for Military Work.

Over Short Distances, the Kc-30 as a Vip Mount Would Be a Gross Overkill, So Does That Mean the Bbjs Need to Be Retained Against That Need? Either Way, Providing a Near ‘air Force One’ Level of Vip Transport With Its Larger Media Accommodation, Without Degrading Military Capability, Isn’t Going to Come Cheaply.

Sydney Cap Limit and Curfews

the Government’s Refusal to Entertain Renewed Requests for a Relaxation of Sydney’s Curfew or Its Hourly Movement Cap Capacity Deserves Better.

Firstly, the Cap is a Flat 80 Movements Per Hour. But 80 What? Whether a Concorde, a Piper Cub or a 737, Each Counts as One Movement, and the Respective Noise Levels Are Not Taken Into Account. The 70db Noise Level is Widely Used to Derive Formulae, So Why Not Adopt a ‘noise Cap’ of 80 X 70db Per Hour Instead of the Meaningless Movements Cap, Perhaps Placing Aircraft Into 10db Groups Between 0600-2300 Local Time. On That Basis, Fixed Schedules Would Allow for More Light and Regional Types to Continue Access While Not Limiting Heavier and Jet Types, as All Would Be Rated Against Their Actual Noise Footprints, Without Increasing the Overall Present Noise Levels.

Another Anomaly is That the Cap is on a ‘use It or Lose It’ Basis, and Unused Pool Slots Lapse Each Hour. So if, for Example, Thunderstorms Were to Deny Sydney 60 Movements Between 1600 and 1800, There is No Provision to Move These 60 Unused Slots to the 1800- 2300 Period if All 80 Per Hour Are Already Allocated.

But Allowing Unused Slots to Jackpot Ahead Would Enable the 60 Aircraft (or Equivalent Db) to Be Processed Precurfew, Without Increasing the Total Daily Movements or Total Noise Exposure. This Would Inconvenience a Few Thousand People Who Live Around the Airport but Save Thousands of Others From Lengthy Strandings, and in Some Cases, Personal Hardship and Grief.

We Have Complex Formulae for Fuel Policies, Separation, and Performance Standards, and Emerging Ones for Carbon Emissions, So Why Not for Noise Caps?

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