New wings for Orion?

and signals intelligence (ELINT/SIGINT) capabilities that the ADF is happy to understate! And with a well laid out upgrade and enhancement program for the aircraft’s systems through to the middle of the next decade through the various Air 5276 Capability Assurance Programs, or CAPs, the AP-3C is likely to maintain its edge right up until its currently planned withdrawal sometime in the late 20-teens.

The current plan has seen the ADF make non-binding ‘first pass’ commitments to the Boeing P-8A Poseidon and the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS – see page 26 this issue) programs, both of which are US Navy programs to replace its 180- odd remaining P-3Cs with 108 737-based P-8As and up to 68 unmanned RQ-4N Global Hawks by 2019. It is estimated the RAAF would require between eight and 12 of each type to adequately replace the AP-3C, especially in light of the latter’s expanded overland ISR role in recent years.

Many of the technologies to be introduced on the P-8A are already operational or in advanced development, so while the sensors and combat systems are not expected to be as challenging to bring to an operational level as say, the Wedgetail AEW&C, there are still risks involved in integrating these systems onto a commercially derived platform which itself is nearing the end of its production life.

Meanwhile Northrop Grumman is finding that the larger Block 20 Global Hawk from which the RQ-4N is derived does not share as many of the components and characteristics of the now proven Block 10 as it had hoped. Thus, that aircraft’s development has slipped by up to 12 months, and costs have risen despite company funded risk mitigation.

So instead of replacing the AP-3C, there is some sentiment within Defence and industry that the ADF may be better served by refurbishing some or all of the Orions and extending the CAP process into the mid or even late 2020s. Lockheed Martin recently delivered the first structural refurbishment kits for P-3s in the form of new wings, engine nacelles, various empennage components and other items which promise to add thousands of hours to the life of the already rugged Orion airframe. Local industry has already proven its ability to perform the upgrade work, with current AP-3C heavy maintenance provider Australian Aerospace having performed similar upgrades on New Zealand’s six P-3Ks in the late ’90s.

Such an upgrade is believed to cost around US$25m (A$26. 5m) per aircraft and would bring obvious benefits to industry. And when weighed up against the estimated US$200m+ (A$212m+) unit acquisition cost for the P-8A, plus the additional expense of catering for a new logistics and training stream, the RAAF could realise perhaps 80 per cent of the capability of a P-8A at a fraction of the cost – a bargain by comparison.

Doubtless there are other issues to be overcome, including support for the AP-3Cs ageing T56 engines and other items. The aircraft will still need to be replaced, albeit a decade or so later than currently planned, but by then the P-8A will be mature and well into its own spiral upgrade process.

The AP-3C can’t and won’t be able to perform many of the surveillance missions envisaged for the ‘top-tier’ Global Hawk, but industry may have a partial solution there too. Despite Raytheon’s loss to incumbent Surveillance Australia in the CMS04/Project Sentinel program to provide 12 years of surveillance for Customs Coastwatch, one of the more innovative elements of its bid for that contract was that of an ocean surveillance satellite.

While satellites lack the obvious flexibility of an aircraft and can’t ‘pop down’ below clouds for a closer or sideways look at a target of interest, the rapidly increasing sophistication of space-based radar and optical sensors should not be under-estimated.

Indeed, when used effectively in conjunction with other systems such as JORN and the sophisticated network being laid out by the Joint Offshore Protection Command, they potentially promise much.

While Australia doesn’t currently own a satellite with the required capability to perform this role, there are a number of commercial ‘birds’ that pass overhead every 80 minutes or so from which imagery can be acquired, not to mention some quite sophisticated military satellites operated by our allies.

Meanwhile, should the RAAF acquire Global Hawk, there is also a lingering perception within Defence of a capability gap emerging in the medium range/altitude tier between the high altitude long endurance (HALE) aircraft and the much smaller ScanEagle and hand launched UAVs. To this end, sources indicate that an acquisition of a member of the General Atomics Predator/Sky Warrior/Reaper family of UAVs may be on the cards.