Debrief

Cancellation of the Runway Would Cause Traffic Congestion During Daylight Saving Departures Which, if Rescheduled to a Post 6:00am Departure, Would Deny Passengers a Full Business Day in Sydney, Melbourne or Canberra. No Doubt Archerfield Would Love to Ease This by Having Regional Turboprops Forced There. The East Coast Overnight Air Express/mail System Would Also Be Disrupted if Both Brisbane and Sydney Were to Run Curfews.

Bacl Knows It Won’t Get a Second Bite at the Npr Southern Extension Cherry, So It is Critical It is Built With a Permanently Displaced 01l Threshold From Day One.

Flightpaths to and From the New Runway Will Pass Over the Noise Hot Spots of the Old Airport and the 10,000 Residents of the New ‘north Shore’, Hence the Curfew Push. So Perhaps a Fall-back Position Might Be to Go With a Directional Jet Curfew on the New Runway Only, as Bacl Says One Runway Can Handle Its Foreseeable Night Traffic.

No Doubt Any Curfew Outcomes Will Be Challenged in Court.

E-jets V Turboprops

Virgin Blue’s Initial Schedules to Albury and Port Macquarie Will See Flights Operate Outside of Peak Yield, Business Friendly Times. One of the Two Aircraft Utilised on the Initial and Predominantly Peak Timed Canberra to Sydney Schedule From February 4 Will Also Be Used During Off-peak Hours to Operate to Albury Twice and Port Macquarie Once.

Port Macquarie, Logically Always the Next Tourist Port After Coffs Harbour and Ballina to Get Jet Services, Has Long Pondered an Appropriate Upgrade of Its Airport.

However, Its Initial Midday Jet Service Will Mainly Attract Lower Yield Passengers, and on the Relatively Short 173nm Stage It Will Only Have a 10 Minute Edge Over Qantaslink Q400s – Which Qantaslink Claims Burns 30 Per Cent Less Fuel Than the E-170.

Although Jets Have Traditionally Grown Regional Markets, Virgin Will Need Up to 40,000 Pax a Year to Be Viable at Port Macquarie Which, Despite Rapid Passenger Growth, Would Hurt Qantaslink Off Peak. At Albury, as Many as 80,000 Pax Per Year Will Be Needed to Start Hurting Qantaslink and Rex Off Peak There, Although They’ll Retain Their Same Day Return Business Numbers.

Although Virgin Blue’s Albury Schedules Show a 15 to 20 Minute Edge, This is Hardly Sufficient to Swing Lower Yield Turboprop Users Unless the Fares Are More or Less Matched. However, Should Virgin Attack During Peak Hours, Rex With Its Single Sized Aircraft Fleet Might Be Harder Hit Than Qantaslink, Which Can Call Up Larger Q400s for Affected Flights if Needed. But the High Capital Costs of New Jets and Q400s Might Prevent the Price War Which May Be Needed to Generate Sufficient Traffic to Be Viable.

Presently, Port Macquarie Could Not Support Two Carriers During Peak Periods, Possibly One Reason Why Rex Has Not Gone Back There Yet.

Armidale and Tamworth Are Also Possible Future E-jet Ports, but When Qantaslink Has Replaced Most of Its 36-seat Dash 8s, Rex With Its 34-seat Saab 340s Will Have a Strong Frequency Edge Over the Larger 50-to-104 Seat Fleets. Regardless, What Happens at Albury Will No Doubt Set the Precedent for Similar Outcomes at Similar Non Tourist Ports the E-jets Will Operate Into Later on.

Meanwhile, Qantas’s Imminent 737-based Capacity Increases at Canberra Indicates It May Fight Jets With Jets as Much as With More Dash 8s.

With Only a Five Minute Block Time Difference Across All Operators on Canberra- Sydney, and With Dash 8‑100s and 737‑800s Identically Timed, Speed Alone Won’t Be Sufficient to Sell Seats.

The Pilot Shortage

Despite Ongoing Calls for Government Aid to Help Train Pilots, the Question of Retention Continues to Go Unaddressed.

It is Thought That if All the Commercial and Military Pilots Trained in Australia Over the Last 30 Years Were Still Here, Many Would Be Driving Taxis or Trucks.

Meanwhile, the Lowering of Experience Requirements and the Speeding Up of Promotions Risks Creating Experience and Ability Imbalances, Meaning Casa Needs to Get Its Crm Plans – Which Mandate Syllabus and Recency – Legislated Irrespective of Cost, Something Which Has Previously Been Opposed by Major Carriers on Cost and Time Credit Based Arguments.

Crm, Rigidly Applied, May Have Prevented a String of Avoidable Fatal Rpt Accidents in Recent Years, Something Which Can Still Be Applied Here by Being Mandated at All Rpt Levels.

Atc Shortages

Long Concealed Staff Shortages and Discontent About Hours and Extraneous Functions Have Finally Surfaced at Airservices Australia. When It Decided to Operate as a Business, Cost Quickly Became the Bottom Line. Air Traffic Controllers Have Since Been Resigning or Taking Early Retirement, Many Going to Lucrative Positions Overseas From Mongolia to the Middle East.

The Time Has Come to Legislate Atc Duty Limits and Rest Breaks. Like Crm, It Should Be Done Whatever the Cost.