A new direction or a lack of substance?

Like the Coalition, Labor also called for the development of a new Defence White Paper. Despite Prime Minister Kevin Rudd promising to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq, it is hoped that a new White Paper will better reflect the growing role of the ADF in global coalition anti-terror and nation-rebuilding operations, whether these are half a world away, or closer to home such as recent operations in East Timor and the Solomons.

“Much has happened in the world since the last Defence White Paper was released in 2000, and it is time for a full and detailed reassessment of Australia’s strategic circumstances,” Rudd’s policy document, which was released on November 12, reads.

It says the new White Paper will support five major strategic ADF tasks, including: ensuring Australian self reliance in supporting the ADF; maintaining control of the sea-air gap approaches to our continent; contributing to security and stability in our region; contributing to coalition operations in the protection of our wider national interests; and providing support to peacetime national priorities such as natural disasters.

It adds that “the new Defence White Paper will address the requirements for the ADF to deploy more units at higher readiness levels, deploy at shorter notice, (and) sustain operations for longer periods. ” “A Rudd Labor government will ensure its new Defence White Paper returns discipline and strategic coherence to the Defence Capability Plan (DCP),” it says, adding that “The Howard government has politicised and compromised the integrity of the DCP by consistently ignoring its strategic basis. ” Some of the details released to date include an undertaking to ensure that preliminary work on Navy’s next generation of submarine gets underway, and that it will ensure a naval shipbuilding capability is re-introduced to Australia, although Tenix, ASC and Austal would probably argue that this has never been lost! In order to meet the funding needs of the current DCP, Labor has sensibly undertaken to maintain a minimum annual real funding growth of three per cent until 2016, thus assuring projects currently underway can be delivered without undue political impediment. That said, the new government has said it will instruct the Australian National Audit Office o conduct annual evaluations of the top 30 defence projects.

Despite past criticism of the Coalition’s direction for the replacement of the RAAF’s air combat capability, it is unlikely Labor will change that direction in the short term.

New Minister Fitzgibbon has been quoted as saying it is unlikely Labor will overturn the previous government’s decision to acquire 24 F/A‑18F Super Hornets, and that he recognises that a capability gap is steadily opening as the F-35 seemingly slips further and further to the right.

“Without superior air combat capabilities, the ADF’s ability to control the air and sea approaches to our nation and implement a maritime strategy is compromised,” the Labor policy document states.

“Even if the Super Hornet is the right aircraft for Australia, the decision to make this $6 billion purchase should have been made some five years ago before further significant investment was made in new capabilities for the F-111 fleet. ” Strange how that infamous “$6 billion” number is now coming back to haunt former Defence Minister and now Opposition Leader, Brendan Nelson, when the real ‘apples with apples’ number is a somewhat less exciting half that number (because the $6bn figure includes support for a decade, weapons etc).

And despite recent reports that Fitzgibbon will submit a formal request to the US government for access to the F-22 program, this seems an unlikely scenario, especially given the true cost in acquiring the aircraft even in the relatively modest numbers we would be able to afford.

But perhaps most importantly, Labor has committed to address current and looming shortfalls in skilled manpower in Defence, although again, it falls short in providing detail.

“The Howard government’s failure to stem the tide of skilled personnel leaving the ADF is a critical flaw in its national security policies,” Labor’s policy says.

“The ADF places very high demands on its people and their families. A Rudd Labor government will reduce this burden and assist ADF personnel to manage the unique challenges they and their families face in serving the nation. ” Interestingly, the new White Paper is due to be released towards the end of 2008 and a new DCP six months after that. But this timing seems to clash with the early 2009 inauguration of a new US administration which may introduce some changes in direction itself.

Maybe we’ll have to wait until after a new US president is inaugurated before we have a clear idea of Australia’s future strategic direction.