Planning for pilots

This is particularly surprising given that the mining industry, which is largely responsible for our current budget surplus, is highly dependent on air services for its fly-in/fly-out operations.

Without adequate air services, mining could not continue at its current rate, and our national budget would suffer accordingly. At the other end of the scale, those hardy Australians who choose to live in the more remote parts of the country also rely heavily on air services, including aeromedical support, for their very existence.

Boeing’s ‘Current Market Outlook 2007’ predicts an average annual domestic passenger growth of 6. 35 per cent in the Asia Pacific region from 2006 to 2026.

By comparison, the BTRE ‘Digest of Statistics 2004-05’ shows Australian domestic passenger growth of 5. 21 per cent per year from 1984/85 to 2004/05, with regional passenger growth even stronger at 7. 87 per cent per year. However, this latter figure reflects the growing incursion of Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin Blue into regional areas. Nevertheless, the BTRE data show an overall annual domestic passenger growth of 5. 45 per cent over the 20 years from 1984/85 to 2004/05, which is entirely consistent with Boeing’s predictions for the next 20 years.

Boeing predicts global fleet growth of 100 per cent over the 20 years from 2006 to 2026, while Airbus’s ‘Global Market Forecast 2006-2025’ predicts fleet growth of 95 per cent for the 20 years from 2006 to 2025. The two projections do not exactly correspond, but they are remarkably close.

A simple averaging of the two projections gives us a projected annual fleet growth of 3. 46 per cent. I do not have data showing the Australian domestic fleet growth for the past 20 years, but BTRE data for the 20 year period from 1984/85 to 2004/05 show an annual growth in movements of 1. 57 per cent for domestic traffic and 0. 91 per cent for regional traffic, with an average overall domestic growth of 1. 25 per cent per year.

Clearly the past growth in passengers has not been matched by a similar growth in movements. However, this reflects the virtual cessation of the multitude of services operated by the Piper Chieftain and similar small aircraft, the replacement of smaller aircraft by progressively larger aircraft on the more substantial routes, and the growth of Qantas and Virgin jet services to regional centres. On the basis of the fairly slow growth in domestic movements over the past 20 years it is perhaps tempting to think that the Boeing and Airbus projected fleet growth rates are unlikely to occur in Australia. However, a review of the passenger growth and a quick scan of recently announced orders by Qantas, Virgin Blue, Rex and others strongly suggests that that is not the case. This leads us to the question of crewing and maintenance requirements.

If, based on the Boeing and Airbus predictions, we were to assume that we should be prepared for a fleet growth of around 3. 5 per cent per year, then it is reasonable to suggest that we would require a similar growth in pilots and LAMEs in order to operate them. But we are already faced with an existing shortage of both pilots and LAMEs, aggravated by the progressive retirement of the post war ‘baby boomer’ generation. Consequently, the actual growth required will be higher than the projected 3. 5 per cent.

According to CASA’s ‘Annual Report 05/06’, the Australian ATPL(A) population has remained relatively constant at a little over 6000 for the past four years. It should be growing by more than 200 per year on average to meet our projected requirements. When existing shortfalls and known future requirements for crewing the recently ordered aircraft are considered, it is apparent that the industry as a whole will need almost 2000 pilots over the next two years to cover attrition and fleet and service expansion. But since we are only training around 370 Australian pilots to ATPL(A) standard each year, we face a shortfall of around 1200 pilots over the next two years.

To put this into context, it represents 20 per cent of our total ATPL(A) population or 40 per cent of the Qantas Group’s pilot strength.

The situation with LAMEs is a little better, with growth of around one per cent in the total number of licences held (6341) in 2006/06 over the previous year, but this was not due to any increase in the initial issue of licences which has remained at around 220 for the last four years.

This still leaves a shortfall of around 160 LAMEs per year to make up, which will require a substantial increase in the rate of issue of licences.

These are not insignificant shortfalls, and they represent a major threat to the industry and its customers. Since the mining industry is one of those customers likely to be significantly affected, it is surprising that neither political party has shown much interest in the issue.

While there is still much that industry needs to do to address the issue, there is a very clear need for government to extend the HECS scheme to include flying training, to allow those who can not afford such training, or who would be forced by limited income to spread it over a number of years, to undergo training in a cohesive, cost effective manner.

By the time that this magazine hits the newsstands, the new government should be in place. Let us hope that one or both parties will recognise the issue in the meantime, and resolve to do something about it.