The sales race

Airbus, despite its “annus horribilis”, posted its second best year ever with 824 new gross orders, 44 per cent of the market, made up of 673 A320s, 134 A330s, A340s and A350s, as well as 17 A380s. Net order intake was 790 for a 43 per cent share and by value 40 per cent.

And 40 per cent is the floor for Airbus’s never-saydie COO Customers John Leahy, who told Australian Aviation in early December that he was conceding first place to Boeing this year [2006]. “Airbus has outsold Boeing every year for the last five years. I think it’s always nice to share, as long as we stay within a 40 per cent to 60 per cent band. There are two players in the market and you don’t have a very stable market if one is always on top. ” But he said that Airbus will deliver more aircraft (434) than Boeing in 2006 and 2007.

But as always, there is far more to the figures than the numbers. Leahy told media at the January 17 “Airbus 2006 Results” media conference that there was a “lot of misunderstanding in the press about how Boeing is taking the crown, but one year doesn’t make a trend. ” That rhetoric was identical to that of former Airbus chief Gustav Humbert, who told media at the 2005 Airbus Results presser that while “we are not happy with the situation [787 and 777 sales], we should not panic.

One year does not make a trend. ” This year Leahy told journalists: “When you look at the A330/340, I am shocked to see it reported that the 777 beat us. We sold 119 330/340s last year, they sold 77 777s and we delivered more. We didn’t have an A350 until December, so in 2006 there were a lot of 777 sales, but not really 350 sales and by end of the year [2007], I predict we’ll have about 200 orders for the A350. ” In fact to get a true perspective, one must analyse the twin-aisle widebody market as 250 to 350 seats and include 787s and 767s, if Airbus is going to lump the 330/340 and 350 together.

On that basis, Boeing has sold 247 and Airbus 134. If one takes the “one year doesn’t make a trend” perspective, the two year figures are much worse for Airbus with Boeing selling 653 767, 777 and 787s and Airbus selling 300 A330/ A340 and A350s.

Of course, Leahy is right.

Airbus has not had a true competitor to the 787 and its A340 models have suffered badly because of the high fuel prices.

On a backlog basis, Airbus is in front with 2533 or 51 per cent of the aircraft to be delivered.

Going forward, the A350 now has industrial launch and is in search of a blue chip launch customer to sign a firm sales contract. Another aircraft in search of a firm launch agreement was the 747-8 Intercontinental. Boeing could not have wished for a better launch customer than Lufthansa and the 747-8 now poses a serious threat to the A380 for both orders and pricing. Net of cancellations, Airbus has sold 166 A380s since 2000 while the 747 (in -400 and -8 forms) has chalked up an impressive 193.

Airbus’s A330-200F is off to a flying start and the company will be hoping to build on the aircraft’s great reputation.

All eyes this year will be on Emirates and British Airways for their A350 vs 787 decisions, while the expectation is that US airlines will also open their order books. Airbus needs Singapore Airlines to firm up on its Farnborough Airshow A350 commitment and it will be hoping for no more A380 glitches and a silky smooth service entry later this year.

This year will be makeor- break for the A350, with many convinced that Airbus should go for a solid composite barrel fuselage and pitch the aircraft more at the 777 end of the market.

Leahy sums up the situation on orders by saying: “We’re late in getting started with 350. Boeing will be in the market about five years ahead. They’ve sold around 400 airplanes (actually 475 with 312 options), but with a market for 5600 aircraft over 20 years, I am willing to give up – regretfully – the first 400 to them. Then we’ll catch up on the rest. ” Let’s hope this year is Airbus’s “annus incredibilis” because with the 787 rollout just months away and the certainty of a further ramp up in the 787 production rate and a 787-10 go-ahead, it promises to be a big year for Boeing.