More regional route pain and gain

Loads under the last operator on the route, Big Sky Express (which collapsed last November) peaked at just 15,000 passengers per annum combined,.

QantasLink full service Dash 8 frequencies and Virgin Blue 737 flights to nearby Coffs Harbour with convenient Grafton bus connections contributed to eroded Grafton loads, especially from its rapidly growing northern catchment. Taree, fed by the also rapidly growing Great Lakes area (in all near double Grafton’s catchment), lost out to QantasLink frequency at Port Macquarie and Newcastle/Williamtown direct Melbourne flights offered by QantasLink Dash 8s, Jetstar A320s and Virgin 737s.

In the wake of Big Sky’s collapse, Rex will commence, perhaps bravely, a thrice daily Saab 340 service linking Sydney, Taree and Grafton with optimal same day business timing in Sydney (but not in the reverse). Start up capacity of near 64,000 seats a year at Rex’s low fares will surely need high load factors to make the route viable.

Whether Rex can drag back around 25,000 passengers a year from road and road links to nearby big airports will be its biggest challenge.

Inverell too lost its service with the Big Sky Express failure. Inverell/Sydney traffic numbers too had fallen as aircraft types operating the route grew smaller, and passengers preferred to travel to Armidale to fly on QantasLink. Rex did not progress beyond showing an initial interest in operating an Inverell/Taree/Sydney link, and instead Aeropelican will start an Inverell/ Williamtown/Sydney service with its newly acquired Jetstream 32s.

Inverell interests appeared cool to a link via Williamtown, but recent loads would not sustain direct flights. Coupling flights to Glen Innes (now served by driving to Armidale) might be viable, but while Big Sky had its reasons for going into Gunnedah instead of Glen Innes, Gunnedah has long been too close to Tamworth, which is well served by QantasLink, to sustain air services.

Aeropelican, whose Sydney/Williamtown loads are near half what it previously carried from its old Belmont base (many of those passenger have been lost to direct Melbourne flights) can effectively use Inverell passengers to top up Williamtown/Sydney and increase frequency. With three J32s it would be able to offer direct Inverell/Sydney flights (and/or with Glen Innes) if demand later warranted.

Long term success, as at Taree and Grafton, will only ensue if operators, councils and users find the services viable, including against nearby competition.

In the West, Derby, West Kimberley’s administrative centre, is to see jet services to Perth after a 15 year absence.

Derby once received up to three MMA Fokker F28s daily to Perth and one to Darwin, and loaded about half of Broome’s then 60,000 passengers a year.

It also serviced the Yampi Sound island iron ore mines and inland towns.

When jet services ceased, in part due to Ansett rationalisation and mine rundowns, they were replaced by a single daily link to Broome by Jetstreams, Metros, Titans and presently Golden Eagle operated Chieftains. As in the East loads fell as aircraft types grew smaller, with Derby loading presently around 3000 passengers a year to Broome’s over 300,000, many of whom reportedly drive 220km to/from Derby.

OzJet, reportedly backed by three mine customers, will start a thrice weekly 737-200 service Perth-Derby service operating Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.

It will operate through RAAF Curtin, which is 45km down the Broome road, to where jets had been transferred before their Derby cessation.

If OzJet has good core startup income from mine passengers it will not be totally dependant on reclaiming market lost to Broome, but whether untied travellers will be attracted to only three flights per week on consecutive days remains to be seen.

The question of schedule reliability also arises where a lone aircraft remote from home is used, something Alliance with ultimately three Perth based Fokker 100s can overcome. The Derby service will generate only around 800 hours flying a year, similar to OzJets’s Brisbane/Port Moresby charter for Airlines PNG, which is worth about 1000 hours.

To make two Perth based 737s viable OzJet would need a lot of extra charter work, most of which is tied up and/or for which the 737 is too heavy, and the WA RPT scene is already overcrowded.

If OzJet’s Derby/Perth service reaches near daily it may kill the Golden Eagle Broome link, recently cut back from its Port Hedland extension due to poor loadings, and no one has resurrected Derby/Darwin services.