Recce

Fokker had three aircraft types on its books on March 15 when finally the spectre of closure became reality. The Fokker 50 and 100 were launched in the mid-eighties and were derivatives, albeit significantly improved versions, of the successful Friendship and Fellowship regional airliners. They both sold fairly well and the Fokker 100 scored some very big orders, including 75 to American Airlines, that would not even have been imagined at Fokker a decade earlier. Overall, there had been firm sales of 214 Fokker 50s and 290 Fokker 100s, whilst the smaller version of the 100, the Fokker 70, had won acclaim far and wide with firm orders for 71 aircraft and a large number of prospects.

Sad, yes. Bizarre, most certainly. Why? Because the company was closed, throwing probably more than 7000 people out of work not only in Amsterdam but also in Belfast, Derby and at various DASA facilities throughout Germany, while it had a backlog of $A2bn covering firm contracts on 65 aircraft. About 15 of these will be completed by a skeleton staff using accumulated stock, the rest will just be written off whilst the numerous airlines that had recently planned their future regional jet airlift requirements around the Fokker 70 are now left high and dry. (A full analysis of the situation commences on page 21)

4 Australian Aviation May 1996

Daimler-Benz Aerospace and the Netherlands Government have simply walked away from their sizeable investment in Fokker at a time when the Dutch manufacturer had nearly $A2bn of forward orders covering production of 65 aircraft. The decision puts around 7000+ people out of work and spells the end of the world’s oldest established aircraft manufacturer. If all this sounds illogical then you are in good company. Pictured is a Malev Fokker 70, just one of many airlines that will be significantly inconvenienced by the decision.

Sempati, Alitalia, British Midland, KLM and Pelita are just a few who have organised their regional jet plans specifically around the Fokker product. These companies will now probably see a depreciation in the value of their existing aircraft while they won’t be able to receive the extra aircraft that they require. The fiscal and practical inconvenience to some of these carriers might well filter through to legal action that neither party wants or can afford.

It is indeed ironic that the world’s oldest aircraft manufacturer goes bankrupt whilst enjoying one of its best periods ever. More ironic is that a number of other nations wish to rush into the 70 to 100 seat jetliner business with all new multi-billion dollar projects. South Korea, China, Indonesia and Taiwan all harbour ambitions to make the big time in this market and yet none have taken up the opportunity of inheriting a fully functioning existing capability and expertise at a fraction of the cost of reinventing the wheel.

The big winner of course is Avro and its AI(R) partnership. The rebadged BAe 146 is really the only aircraft that can fill the sales vacuum left by the demise of the Fokker 70 and 100. Whilst the value of existing Fokker jets will most probably fall, the new cost price of an Avroliner will logically rise with contracts being promoted more vigorously to blue chip clients rather than nebulous start-ups and known marginals who a decade ago featured heavily in the type’s operators list.

The turboprop Fokker 50 probably won’t be missed to any great extent though it should boost Bombardier’s long-term chances of placing additional Dash 8-300s into service and possibly fast forwarding the launch of the long mooted stretched Canadair RJ 70 seater. At the time of the collapse it was thought that Bombardier would be a prime candidate to take over the remains of Fokker. The Canadian company has a strong fiscal base and has successfully rejuvenated both Learjet and de Havilland Canada in recent years. Bombardier also owns Shorts, who built the wings of the Fokker jets in addition to the RR Tay nacelles. Job losses in Northern Ireland will be heavy with the loss of this contract by what is Belfast’s largest employer.

If there is one single ray of hope it is that in the months ahead an existing manufacturer will decide to make an offer on buying the manufacturing infrastructure (rights and jigs etc) for the Fokker 70 and 100 and place them back into production. Whilst this is not beyond the realm of possibility it is still fairly remote as these words are written. We can only wait and see what, if anything, develops in the coming months.