Newsdesk — Commercial Aviation

Fokker Forecasts Demand For 3500 Airliners In The 40-125 Seat Class:

Fokker has predicted a worldwide demand over the next 20 years for almost 3500 new airliners in the 40- 125 seat class. In its recently published Market Outlook 1994-2013, Fokker’s Market Research Department is forecasting a demand for more than 1300 40-69 seaters and a need for 2200 70-125 seaters. These figures address the anticipated need of all scheduled airlines in the world, excluding the CIS countries. In addition, Fokker sees a growing market for charter, freight, corporate, government and military operations. Not surprisingly, Europe and North America are the largest markets for 40-69 seaters accounting for 36% and 31% of the expected total demand. Asia & Pacific rank third with 16%, followed by Latin America with 9.5% and Africa and the Middle East with 7.5%. Average age of the current world fleet of 40-69 seaters is 11 years, while the average retirement age is assumed to be 25 years. Replacement of aging equipment will create half of the forecasted demand, principally in Asia & Pacific and Africa & Middle East. The remaining half is expected to be generated by growth, mainly in Europe, North America and Latin America. Growth will to a large extent come from regional airlines replacing jet operations of major airlines with modern turboprops on sectors shorter than 400nm. Worldwide demand for 40-69 seaters is forecasted at close to 100 aircraft per year over the next three years, after which it will gradually decrease. After the year 2008, demand is expected to rise again when current generation turboprops will begin to be replaced. Regional distribution of the demand for 70-125 seaters shows North America to be the largest market with 36%. Europe accounts for 28%, Asia & Pacific for 16%, Latin America for 12.5% and Africa & Middle East for 7.5%. Today’s fleet of 70-125 seaters is on average 14 years old with an average retirement age of 28 years. Some 75% (or 1600 aircraft) of the total demand is therefore expected to come from replacement, with the remainder needed to cater for growth. The replacement market will be particularly strong between 1996-2000, with demand expected to peak at 140 aircraft in 1997. After the year 2000, a steady market of some 100 aircraft per year is foreseen. Retirement of ageing aircraft in this size category will mainly take place in North America and Europe, while Asia & Pacific and Latin America are typical growth markets. Although turboprops will take over shorter routes from jets, this will be more than offset by an increase in flight frequencies on regional jet routes. Moreover, turboprop operators are starting to expand their networks over longer distances. The need for higher speed will be met by small sized jets.

The Fokker study signals a declining growth in available seat miles for intraregional traffic. In the past, the world average growth rate was 5% per year. For the coming decade 3.9% per year is predicted, followed by 3.1% per year in the 2004-2013 period. There are various reasons for this decline. Intercontinental traffic is growing faster than intraregional traffic. Moreover, growth will not continue exponentially but will level off as a result of saturation effects. In addition, intraregional air transport in North America is showing signs of maturity, while in Europe growth is hampered by the introduction of high speed trains, an efficient motorway system, major airport and airways congestion and rising aviation taxes. In their struggle for survival, major airlines have to enlarge their net margin by raising fares (resulting in lower demand), offering reduced capacity, or a combination of both. This development also leads to slower overall growth, although it can be high for low cost carriers. The number of scheduled airlines in the world has increased from 576 in 1984 to 614 in 1993. On the one hand there has been concentration, especially in the US, as a result of mergers and takeovers though the opposite trend can be observed in Asia, where the number of airlines is growing. Nevertheless, today just 25 airlines produce 80% of all seat kilometres flown on jet routes of up to 2500nm. Concentration is also visible in turboprop operations, where the top 35 airlines account for 70% of the total seat kilometre production. The dominant factor here is codesharing: regionals operating under major airline flight number codes.

Trent Must Be Tested On The Wing:

Boeing has told Rolls-Royce that the new Trent 800 engine for the Boeing 777 must be flight tested on its 747 testbed, dashing RR hopes that engineering data collected by Boeing from testing rival GE and Pratt & Whitney engines would be sufficient. Boeing has reasoned that unexpected and serious problems experienced by both the other manufacturers justifies the move and its associated expense, and testing is due to begin early next year. The first Trent powered 777 is scheduled to be delivered to Thai International in January 1996. General Electric has been forced to remove parts of its GE90 test engine from the 747 testbed to try and overcome problems with the low pressure spool to make sure the engine can meet its November certification target. Boeing has meanwhile told Rolls-Royce that it will need to test the Trent 800 for the 777 on a 747 testbed because of the problems both Pratt & Whitney and GE have experienced with their respective 777 engine programmes.

Peregrine Invests In Aerospace:

Brisbane based investment banker Peregrine Capital Australia Ltd has made a major investment in Australia’s aerospace industry by financially backing a new venture. That venture is Avscom Australia, which has acquired the Airprop Services division of US spares and overhaul company Aviall’s Australian operations. Peregrine’s move into the aerospace industry follows a global restructuring by Aviall, which recently floated on US stock exchanges after a reorganisation which saw it close eight out of nine Australian distribution centres. Avscom — which has extensive supply and servicing facilities in Melbourne and Brisbane – will concentrate on its core business of component overhaul and spare parts distribution servicing Australia’s civil and military aviation sectors. Former Aviall Asia Pacific regional director, Lyle Copley, has been appointed managing director.

Boeing, Boeing, Gone…

Specialist transportation auctioneers, Capital Registry, will in November hold what is believed to be the first auction sale of passenger and freight aircraft. The auction will take place in Las Vegas. Thirty-five aircraft are expected to be auctioned with a value of over $US150m. The list includes Boeing 727s and 737s, McDonnell Douglas DC-9s and MD-80s, DHC Dash 7s and BAe Jetstreams. It is possible that some widebody airliners such as Boeing 747s and McDonnell Douglas DC-10s will also be offered. Capital Registry believes the auction will herald a complete change in the way used aircraft are sold on the world market and that it will provide two urgently needed opportunities for the industry. It will enable the owners of parked aircraft (including banks and leasing firms) to quickly lay off some of their aviation sector exposure and will also give new and small operators a chance to acquire aircraft at reasonable prices. Locally, Sydney based Pickles Auctions have been quite successful at selling aircraft by way of auction so the US experience could be the start of things to come if it too proves successful.

Passengers Prefer Frequent Turboprops:

An independent survey of passengers travelling on regional airlines in Australia and New Zealand, commissioned by Saab, shows that an overwhelming majority prefer the convenience offered by regional turboprops to less frequent services by larger jets on short haul services. Some 1600 passengers travelling on Saab 340s operated by Hazelton and Kendell Airlines in Australia and Air New Zealand Link (Air Nelson) were surveyed by completing a form which contained questions about service, fares and aircraft characteristics such as seating configuration, space, speed etc. Some interesting results emerged, including that passengers ranked convenience of departure time ahead of any other consideration, including price. Fewer than 20% of those surveyed indicated they would be prepared to pay more or delay their departure time in order to fly in a jet. Convenience of departure time was named by 21% of the passengers as the most important criteria when choosing to fly, followed by ticket price (17%) and convenience of departure location (16%). Most passengers (71%) indicated they would feel comfortable in a turboprop for flights of up to two hours duration. The Saab 340 has meanwhile passed the milestone of four million revenue flights in its 10th anniversary year. The 340 is the first of the new technology regional airliners to achieve this. As of August this year, 355 Saab 340s were being flown on five continents by 35 operators. The first aircraft entered service in June 1984 with Crossair and since then 70 million people have flown in the 35 passenger regional turboprop. More than 400 Saab 340s have been ordered. Meanwhile, the 340’s larger and faster development, the 2000, has just entered service after achieving certification. Crossair is once again the first operator, initially flying the aircraft between Basle in Switzerland and Paris. Crossair will receive five 2000s this year and the total firm orderbook is 36 so far with both Hazelton and Kendell having signed for the high speed 50 seat turboprop.

J41 Upgraded:

British Aerospace has announced a package of design weight and performance improvements for its Jetstream 41 regional turboprop. The package includes a 454kg (1000lb) increase in maximum takeoff and landing weights and a 318kg (700lb) upping of the maximum zero fuel weight with no penalty in empty weight. This results in an increased maximum payload (now 3290kg/7250lb) and improved payload/range characteristics. With a full load of 29 passengers, the J41 will now fly 732nm (1353km) without refuelling or two 300nm (556km) sectors with full IFR reserves. A 10% increase in power to 1650shp (1230kW) from the J41’s Garrett TPE331-14 engines have contributed to improved hot and high performance and a substantial increase in payload under those conditions. The first J41s built to this new standard were those recently delivered to Sydney based Impulse Airlines. Impulse has ordered 10 aircraft, the first batch of which will be used on the company’s Brisbane/Newcastle, Sydney/Port Macquarie and Tamworth/Armidale/Brisbane/Gold Coast routes. A Newcastle/Melbourne service will be introduced in October. Impulse has also placed deposits on two Canadair RJ 50 seat jets for delivery in 1996/97.

Csiro’S Supersonic Research:

Australian CSIRO scientists are working with Boeing on research aimed at eventually developing a new generation supersonic transport. Boeing and McDonnell Douglas were recently awarded a NASA contract to jointly study a 300 passenger, Mach 2.4 SST. The CSIRO’s Division of Applied Sciences in Sydney is predicting the impact of a fleet of these SSTs on the ozone layer and working with Boeing to develop a model of the chemical processes in the atmosphere. Similar studies are underway in the USA and Europe. One of the problems facing designers of a new SST is that its cruising altitude of 55-65,000 feet could cause damage to the ozone layer due to engines exhausting oxides of nitrogen (NOx). Engine manufacturers are evaluating new concepts which would eliminate that problem, and according to Boeing the calculations of the impact on the ozone layer are promising providing the low NOx engines are successfully developed.

Concorde’S Cracks:

Inspection of British Airways’ fleet of Concordes has revealed that all seven aircraft have hairline cracks in the aft wing spar webbing. Cracks between 25mm and 90mm have been found, but they are located in non load bearing areas. Two Concordes have been repaired and the others can continue flying until repairs are made to them. In the meantime they have to be inspected every ten flights. Air France’s Concordes have significantly fewer hours logged than BA’s and are not affected by the problem. One BA Concorde recently suffered failure of three outer window panels whilst cruising at Mach 2 at 57,000 feet on a non revenue flight. Single ply outer window panels have been fitted to Concorde but these are being replaced by two ply units. They are designed primarily as heat shields, the two ply inner windows carrying the cabin pressure load. Either ply of the window panels will support the full load.

747 Carries More:

One of aviation’s growth sectors — air freight – is largely the domain of the Boeing 747, according to its manufacturer. Boeing predicts that world air cargo traffic will increase by an average 6.5% per annum over the next 20 years, with volume tripling during that period. To fill the need, Boeing expects an additional 600 large freighter aircraft will be required, although it is likely that a large proportion of that need will be filled by converted DC-10s, Tristars and early model A300s, as well as 747s. Boeing says that airlines throughout the world operate more than 1000 freighter aircraft as well as over 2500 airliners equipped to carry cargo pallets and containers in their lower holds. One fifth of the total cargo capacity is provided by just 128 all freight 747s.

Ge90 Problems:

Continuing problems with the 84,000lb (376kN) thrust General Electric GE90 engine for the Boeing 777 has threatened the ambitious certification programme and steps are being taken to regain the schedule. A series of incidents mainly concerning the low pressure spool have forced GE to remove parts from the engine in its Boeing 747 testbed and transfer them to ground test units in an effort to meet the certification target of November this year. The first 777 with GE90s is scheduled to fly in December. Boeing is seeking rapid extended range twin engined operations (ETOPS) approval for the 777, bypassing the usual procedure of building up in-service experience before full approval is given.

Enhanced Gpws:

Allied Signal is testing its Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System Display which indicates by colours (depending on the urgency of the situation) possible problems with terrain impact. Solid red indicates terrain within about 30 seconds of possible impact; solid yellow shows terrain within about 300ft (91m) of the projected flightpath and about one minute before impact; and yellow dot matrix indicates terrain within about 2000 feet (600m). Nearby runways are displayed in green. Enhanced GPWS with integral terrain database will supplement the function of conventional radar altimeter based GPWS systems and a prototype system is being tested on a Boeing 737 simulator. FAA certification and deliveries of the system are scheduled for late 1995.

Past Their Prime:

Data compiled by the Moscow State Research Institute of Civil Aviation has shown that some 80% of the medium and long haul transports operated by airlines in the former Soviet Union have exceeded their original service life limits and that 12-15% of the fleet should be retired by 1996 and 50% by the turn of the century. The problem is, attempts to develop replacement aircraft have fallen five years or more behind schedule leaving either a capacity gap if the old aircraft are retired, a temporary life extension programme if they are not, or the need to import western airliners at prices many of the operators lacking hard currency might find difficult if not impossible to raise. Existing new programmes are being dragged out by organisational, financial and technical difficulties. These include the Il-96M four engined widebody, the Il-114 regional turboprop and the Tu-204 medium range twinjet. The Il-96-300 and Tu-204 are both reportedly suffering reliability problems and there are no simulators, ground/test monitoring equipment or spare avionics available. The Il-96-300 entered service with Aeroflot last year but has proven to be unsatisfactory in many ways, while the Tu-204 — which first flew in 1989 — has yet to complete certification testing.

Dash 8 Production Upped:

Bombardier Regional Aircraft Division has announced that the production rate for the de Havilland Dash 8 will rise from two to three per month. The new production rate will be effective from mid 1995, and reflects, according to Bombardier Regional Aircraft President Pierre Lortie, “the strengthening of sales activity and our desire to enter customers’ requirements for early deliveries”. The only other airliners to have had their production increased in the past three years are the Canadair RJ and Boeing 767.

Vanuatu Airport Contract To Australia:

The Austrade Airport Industries Group’s efforts to find work for Australian companies in the potentially lucrative Asia-Pacific region airport building and upgrading market has met with success following the naming of Thiess Contractors as preferred contractor to upgrade Vanuatu’s two principal airports. The project is the first to be granted to a consortium formed from Airport Industries Australia (AIA), the Austrade led network of firms in the airport construction industry. Work to be performed at the airports includes lengthening, widening and repaving of runways; improving the approach and runway lighting, navigation aids, power supplies and communications systems; supplying baggage handling and security equipment; and building a new terminal at one of the airports. After upgrading, both will be able to handle aircraft of Boeing 767 size. AIA has identified 15 airport projects in China, Indonesia and the Philippines potentially worth $4bn that Australian industry can bid for.