Boeing Future Airfreight Forecasts

According to Boeing, worldwide air cargo traffic will more than double by 2005: “The 74 billion revenue ton kilometres (RTKs) moved in 1991 will grow to 179 billion RTKs in the next 13 years”. Quite a positive statement from the Boeing publication, especially when seen in the light that 1991 was not one of the world’s better years; it was the first time since the 1930s that the world economy declined, to the tune of 0. 2%. Air cargo declined with it, by 3. 19% The world recession and the Gulf War were blamed.

Prior to 1991, world air cargo had been increasing by a steady 8% per annum since 1970. This steady increase has, no doubt, proven the viability of the 858 dedicated freighter aircraft in service at the end of 1991 which carried everything from personal computers to machine parts, and seafood to footwear and apparel.

Perhaps a sample of the aircraft types would be appropriate: 707 variants-110; 727 variants-292; 747 variants-117; DC-8 variants-217; DC-9 variants-60; DC-10 variants-33; BAe 146 variants-142. Boeing predicts that many of the older freighters will be phased out before 2005, being replaced by 757 sized freighters, which will be more fuel efficient, noise acceptable, and operate at considerably higher utilisation rates than the aircraft that they replace.

Boeing classifies the aircraft that will be the freight haulers of the future into three sizes-large capacity freighters (over 50 tonnes), small freighters (under 30 tonnes); and medium sized freighters, the aforementioned 757 class. Boeing predicts that 365 additional large capacity freighters will be required by 2005, and the number of small freighters will grow substantially, primarily through the conversion of passenger aircraft. A representation of the small, medium and large freighters is given: Some of these aircraft are not yet flying as pure freighters, such as the newer Airbus models. Of course the above predictions are contingent upon the world economy growing steadily at about 6. 5% per annum. It is interesting to note, however, that Airbus has made similar forecasts recently.

The study points out that although cargo demand will continue upward, driving an increasing demand for capacity, the actual share of world air cargo carried by dedicated freighters will decrease. The reasoning is that many older freighters will be retired, while the number of wide body passenger aircraft with abundant lower hold capacity will more than double, thus decreasing dedicated freighter share from 41% to 37% by 2005. With the new generation engines, lighter materials, and advanced aerofoils, wide bodies can, or soon will be able to, uplift more payload, and convey it further and faster than any previous aircraft in the same weight category.

“To feed the freighter market,’ David Rowntree, a Boeing spokesman recently told Australian Aviation, “Boeing presently builds a 757 freighter, has begun producing parts for the first 747-400 freighter at Boeing Wichita with first delivery scheduled for May 1993, and continues to study the requirement for a wide body 767 freighter. While Boeing does not manufacture a cargo version of the smaller 737 series, after-market conversions are available. ‘ At present, there are about 100 737s worldwide configured as freighters or convertibles, but if Boeing’s predictions are correct, their number will increase.

There were less than 100 jet aircraft freighters worldwide in 1970. As mentioned, there are at least 858 today. Comparing this ninefold increase over 22 years to Boeing’s prediction of the next 13 years, of a further increase of nearly 30%, one can see the validity of it – provided that the world economy does actually grow at an average 6%. Emmet Hobbs, director of freight at Qantas, recently expressed some reservations at such a growth figure.

Boeing boldly predicts that the highest air freight market growth will occur on the intra-Orient, Europe/Orient and Orient/United States routes, and that these markets should account for over 50% of the air freight market by 2005. In other words, Asia is where the action is. Of course these predictions. are fairly well founded. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have experienced remarkable growth in recent years, and although there has been somewhat of a cooling off with reduced world demand for value added products, they are still experiencing positive growth.

More recently, manufacturers of these countries, driven by steadily growing labour costs, are moving production plants to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and China. So the growth will still be in the Pacific Rim. Australia is likely to benefit from this growth, due to its exports of meat, seafood, fresh fruit and cut flowers. (A pity value added products don’t feature highly- those we import. ) Latin America is also tipped for strong economic growth by Boeing. The 21 nations that comprise Latin America generated nearly 600,000 tonnes of air trade with the United States in 1991, accounting for nearly 20% of US air imports and 14% of US air exports. This air market expanded 9. 3% during 1991, one of the highest growth rates in the world.

The main commodities cited for export from these countries . . . seafood, fresh fruit, vegetables and flowers. But, apparently Latin America is beginning to export value added goods increasingly.

Finally, international air cargo traffic is tipped to expand faster than the domestic markets of the participating countries. The top four sectors are expected to be Intra Orient (ie between South East and North East Asian nations), Europe Orient & Australasia, US Orient and North America Latin America.

This does infer the need for long haul wide body aircraft, and with passenger traffic also tipped to rise, it well may lead to all sorts of Boeing, Airbus and McDonnell Douglas freighter de-rivatives.