A Malev 737-500, the smallest of the Boeing family, rotates on its first flight. That the major manufacturers can 'get it wrong' is exampled by the fact that Airbus,Boeing and MDC in 19 85tipped a 1997 jet inventory of between 8,000and 9,000units,a figure that was in fact reached last year.

Manufacturers Differ Over Future Jet Sales

Many people outside the aircraft manufacturing business have a natural suspicion of the industry’s 10, 15 and 20 year market projections.

Even a period as relatively brief as ten or twelve years can be filled with many unforeseen events and sharp shifts in trends. Here it would be true to say that manufacturers themselves are frequently suspicious of their own forecasts. Nevertheless, it remains important for industry to make an attempt at looking into the future.

The cycle for a new aircraft type, which begins with market research and continues through design, construction, testing and certification, can easily absorb six to eight years. Production is then expected to run for perhaps a further ten to fifteen years so that the company’s initial investment can be recovered. For these reasons, relatively long range views of the market are needed.

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