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1987 A Boom Year for Air Transport
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Final data from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) for 1987 indicated total scheduled traffic by the world’s airlines in 1987 – both passenger and freight – showed strong increase compared to 1986. In terms of tonne-kilometers performed the rate of growth exceeded 10%. This compares with a 7% growth between 1985 and 1986 and it is the first time in the 1980s that the world’s airline industry has shown double-digit growth. Another landmark reached in 1987 was the carriage of more than one billion passengers for the first time in aviation history.
In scheduled international and domestic services airlines of ICAO’s 157 Member States performed 1,600,000 million passenger kilometres, some 10% more than in 1986. The number of seats offered increased by a lower rate than the number of passengers carried and therefore the estimated passenger load factor went up from 65% to 67%. Air freight is estimated to have increased to some 48,000 million tonne-kilometres in 1987 or by about 11%. Airmail showed a small increase.
Meanwhile, the International Air Transport Association asks, will airline traffic hold up in 1988?
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“The airline industry’s prospects for 1988 are volatile. We have had a very satisfactory 1987, with traffic up 13 percent on average worldwide, passing the milestone of one billion passenger journeys for the first time,” said IATA Director General, Gunter 0. Eser. This should certainly produce an improved overall financial result for the airlines.
Reviewing airline prospects, he continued: “With the dollar’s slide and the stock market shocks there are added uncertainties for our industry, as for many others. Fluctuating exchange rates which make us cautious in forecasting the outcome for 1988, are a particular worry. ” Traffic growth continues at a higher rate than anyone expected, but it is probably not realistic to assume this will be sustained throughout 1988. Therefore, IATA is tentatively forecasting 6-8% overall traffic growth for the coming year.
The Director General welcomed the liberalization package being introduced within the European Community in 1988. “The carriers see this as a first step towards the ‘Single Market’ of 1992, particularly when combined with developments in the wider context of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC),” he observed. “There are sure to be some very interesting competitive initiatives in Europe that will benefit the consumer considerably. ”
Dr. Eser did sound a cautionary note, nevertheless. “We cannot overlook the mounting problem of congestion in the air lanes and at airports, which will create delays as the system seeks to adapt to the growing traffic volume. We saw serious problems at peak times in the high season in the summer of 1987, not only in North America but also in Western Europe. Things will certainly be no easier during the coming year. ”
He also pointed out that, while the general business environment for many airlines was still favourable, carriers in Africa and Latin America were suffering from the economic problems prevalent in their own home regions. “In addition, they face pressures in Western Europe and North America limiting the operation of older aircraft. These airlines must not be excluded from the forward progress of our industry,” he concluded, “since they are also valued partners in the aviation family.
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