A Time For Decision

For our domestics the interest of the 400 is that it would seat some 230 passengers in Australian domestic two-class configuration, about 30 more than the B. 10 cut-down version of the Airbus, which is interesting Ansett and TAA very much indeed, and 20 to 30 less than the standard Airbus. It would, however, still have three engines, though the Rolls-Royce RB. 211s would be derated in a 22B version to develop some 42,000lb thrust. As the heat inside these engines would be cut by between 50 and 100 degrees F Lockheed says the maintenance cost would be far less and of course less fuel would be used. As engines are the most costly single item in any aircraft this would be very attractive.

So the Lockheed proposal would hinge on the Ansett/T AA reaction to a three-engine aircraft as opposed to two engines in the Airbus and on seating. They must decide whether they would stay with the 200-seat size which over the past year or so both airlines have predicted as the right size for the 1980s. If they want to go further, without going too far, then 220 to 230 seats would be attractive.

This presupposes the 400 is ever built. Lockheed awaits an order from Delta, the most likely customer (Delta was the first in the USA to order the 500), plus one foreign or other domestic US operator to order the 400 into metal Th Lockheed people told me that they would regard TAA and Ansett as one order, sufficient in prestige to affect further orders though in US terms the order would be small. All manufacturers regard Australian airlines as a high-prestige market that affects the decisions of other airlines.

Lockheed executives told me the 400 would be delivered in 1983, the same year as the Boeing 767, another design yet to be approved for production. Boeing is due to take this decision in about June or July this year, when it should have orders in from American or one of the other big US domestics.

Lockheed says that even though the 400 has three engines and, being a cut-down big fellow, would be heavier than the 767, it must be at least as cheap as the Boeing because the 767 would be an entirely new design with great R&D. The 400 R&D would be far less because of the head start. Boeing’s costs to first delivery could be above $1,000,000,000 while the 400s would be half or less of that.

The airlines have to choose which advantages and disadvantages they want or dislike. They might prefer the 767s with two engines.

The 767 will be one of an entirely new family of three airliners, the 757, 767 and 777. They will have 2/3/2 abreast seating, which Boeing says is what the customer wants, with a wide-bodied look. The 757 is the smallest, with 120 to 150 seats – no final decision yet. British Airways is looking at a 162-seat version. Our domestics not interested.

The 777 is a three-engined version with longer legs and 200 seats, with expansion to more seats. It would have sub­-versions for international or trans-continental route. This is being put to Qantas, not the domestics.

The 767 is the 200-seater which has considerable interest for TAA and Ansett, as it could cope very well with all domestic routes as well as “regional” routes such as New Guinea, New Zealand, Fiji, etc. It would be powered by General Electric CF-6s, RB-211s, P&W JT9D-7s, according to the buyer’s taste. The RB-211 provision is obviously aimed at Europe and Britain. Our choice would be for the Pratt Whitney engine. All would be de-rated.

Boeing has already poured the best part of $US100 million into this venture, most of it being spent on the basic wing design. This has already been in the wind tunnel for thousands of hours and we can accept it as a fact, not just an idea or a design. The whole family project succeeds or fails on the wing.

Well, say TAA/Ansett orders one of the three aircraft proposed – Airbus B. 10, Airbus standard, Lockheed TriStar 400, Boeing 767. These are all going into service, if built, about 1983. That means our airlines must cope with the traffic growth from 1979, when the last of our 727/200s on order is delivered here.

The domestics could take the simple way out, by order­ing more 727s, but this means they will have a lot of older design airliners in the system for a long time, with relatively noisy engines and bans coming up in the 1980s.

The next simplest solution is to buy other available types, the Series 80 version of the DC-9, the DC-9 has been the most economic airliner Ansett and TAA ever operated. Far better than the 727. This would be available in 1980, to hit the right spot in timing. And McDonnell Douglas is not handling just an idea, for the Series 80 is definitely being built. It would seat some 140 in our configuration and be powered by a P&W JTBD-209, which is quieter than the current version in the DC- 9 Series 30 operated here.

The domestics frankly like this idea. They have had 8 love affair with the DC-9 for years and an extended version would have a strong commonality, with all that means in savings. For some time earlier this year it seemed that if the domestics could have taken a quick decision about April they would have ordered this aeroplane and very likely the 8. 10 version of the Airbus, with the 767 running fairly close after the Euro­pean aircraft. The Series 80 has the possible drawback that the cabin will look like a long tube – it is just an extended DC-9, after all – and many passengers might not like this. But cynics put it, who cares what the passengers think when both air­ lines choose the same type?

Otherwise, the domestics would have to consider the new family of British/French/German/Dutch airliners suggested to our airlines about the same week as Lockheed was here. This is JET 1, 2 and 3, and 2 being the one which is in our court. JET 2 would seat 150 in our configuration and be powered by two CFM-56 engines. This is an entirely new family of airliners, like the Boeing project.

But JET 2 would not be available until 1983 if a decision­to-build is taken late this year and it has the drawback, to Australia, of being an international project between four Governments and British Aerospace, Aerospatiale, MBB and Fokker/VFW. What about the 1980-83 gap? More 727s? The JET people suggest buying standard 250-seat Airbuses to bridge the gap, which is not the best suggestion. However, orders are needed before Europe will decide to make JETS.