Wings of denial: what’s in the NDS for air power?

But beyond the headline figures and big-ticket items, the picture is one of genuine momentum, some long-overdue decisions, and persistent questions about the pace of delivery in an environment that, as the documents themselves frankly acknowledge, affords little time for deliberation.

Strategic driving force

The 2026 NDS does not radically rewrite the strategic logic established in the 2024 edition. The Strategy of Denial remains the conceptual cornerstone of Australian defence planning, the aim being to deter and, if necessary, defeat any adversary seeking to project force against Australia through its northern approaches.

What the 2026 documents do is sharpen that logic, with explicit acknowledgement that the lessons of the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East have materially altered the calculus of modern warfare.

Two lessons stand out in shaping RAAF investment priorities. The first is the centrality of long-range precision strike as both a deterrent instrument and an operational capability. The second is the catastrophic rate at which modern conflict consumes munitions, and the corresponding inadequacy of pre-war stockpile assumptions. Both lessons are directly reflected in the IIP’s emphasis on expanding the guided weapons inventory, accelerating the delivery of air-based strike capabilities, and finally moving with urgency on IAMD.

The Albanese government has allocated between $64 billion and $80 billion to aviation capabilities across the decade, representing approximately 19 per cent of the total IIP commitment. Against this backdrop, the RAAF emerges not merely as a recipient of new platforms but as the central node in an integrated force designed to strike deep, defend broadly, and hold the air domain.

Deepening the F-35’s armoury

While Australia completed delivery of all 72 F-35A Lightning II aircraft to RAAF Bases Williamtown and Tindal prior to the 2026 NDS release, establishing three operational squadrons.

The documents confirm that the F-35A will remain the centrepiece of Australian combat air power for the foreseeable future, and that the government’s investment strategy is focused heavily on expanding the weapons envelope around that platform rather than replacing it.

The most strategically significant weapons announcement is the confirmed acquisition of the AIM-260A Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM), making Australia the first export customer for what is expected to be the most capable Western beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile in operational service.

The US congressional notification, cleared in January 2026, covers up to 450 missiles, five integration test vehicles, and 30 guided test vehicles, for a package valued at approximately US$3.16 billion. The inclusion of test and integration hardware is telling: Australia is buying entry into the entire weapons development cycle from the outset, not simply purchasing a shelf item after US operational maturity is established.

The first deliveries are not expected until around 2033, but the investment signals a long-term commitment to maintaining air combat overmatch in an environment where China’s PL-15, and potentially the longer-ranged PL-17, have materially eroded the range advantage previously enjoyed by Western air forces.

The JATM is designed to exceed 200 kilometres in engagement range, fit within the F-35A’s internal weapons bay without modification, and incorporate electronic warfare resistance and secure GPS guidance that addresses vulnerabilities identified in earlier AMRAAM variants. Australia will continue to maintain stocks of the AIM-120C/D AMRAAM and AIM-9X Sidewinder alongside the JATM program, ensuring no capability gap emerges during the transition.

On the strike side, the IIP confirms a comprehensive armament modernisation program for the F-35A fleet. The AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) will be integrated onto the F-35A alongside its existing carriage on the F/A-18F Super Hornet, and separately onto the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, fundamentally changing the geometry of Australian maritime strike.

Unlike conventional anti-ship missiles that depend on active radar emissions readily detectable by adversary electronic support measures, LRASM is entirely passive in its target acquisition phase, combining a radio-frequency seeker, an imaging infrared sensor, and a weapons data link to identify and select specific vessels within a group.

The missile’s stealth-optimised airframe and terrain-following routing further reduce its vulnerability to layered naval air defences. The IIP confirms early RAAF test flights of LRASM on the Super Hornet have already occurred, with full integration across the F-35A and P-8A fleets to follow.

The Joint Strike Missile (JSM), developed by Kongsberg and already integrated on Norwegian F-35 aircraft, has been confirmed for integration into the Australian F-35A fleet.

A derivative of the Naval Strike Missile, the JSM is notable for being the only precision-guided munition designed from the outset to be carried internally by the F-35 in its stealthy configuration, preserving the aircraft’s low-observable characteristics across both anti-ship and land-attack mission profiles.

The JASSM-ER, the extended-range variant of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile that Australia has operated on the F/A-18F for years, is confirmed for integration on the F-35A. Capable of striking targets at ranges exceeding 900 kilometres, the JASSM-ER extends the RAAF’s ability to conduct deep land attack without exposing crewed aircraft to layered surface-to-air missile systems.

Rounding out the conventional precision-guided armoury is the AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile – Extended Range (AARGM-ER), confirmed for integration on both the EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft and the F-35A, providing a dedicated hard-kill capability against adversary integrated air defence systems.

The combination of AARGM-ER for suppression, JASSM-ER for deep land attack, LRASM for maritime strike, and JSM for stealthy multi-role employment creates a weapons portfolio of considerable operational depth and flexibility.

Fleet retention to 2040

Perhaps one of the more consequential structural decisions in the 2026 IIP is the formal confirmation that Australia’s 24 F/A-18F Super Hornets and 12 EA-18G Growlers will be retained in service until 2040, with ongoing upgrades synchronised to those of the US Navy.

The decision ends any lingering ambiguity about the Super Hornet’s future in the RAAF inventory and has material implications for the weapons and capability investment strategy.

The Growler’s retention is of particular significance. As the only dedicated electronic attack aircraft in Australian service, the EA-18G provides a capability the F-35A’s internal electronic warfare system does not fully replicate, the ability to conduct offensive electronic attack at operationally significant power levels, disrupting or destroying adversary radar and communications networks.

The Growler’s utility increases, not decreases, in a contested electromagnetic environment, and the 2026 IIP’s investment in AARGM-ER integration on the platform reflects this assessment.

Sustaining the Growler fleet to 2040 also preserves the option of eventually integrating next-generation electronic warfare payloads as they mature.

The Super Hornet’s role as a hypersonic weapons carrier is explicitly flagged in the IIP documents. Under the Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment (SCIFiRE), an Australia-United States collaborative program, work is progressing on the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile.

The 2026 NDS and IIP confirm this hypersonic capability will be integrated across the Super Hornet fleet, marking Australia’s entry into the operationally relevant hypersonic strike domain.

While precise timelines remain classified, the investment in the F/A-18F as the carrier platform reflects both the aircraft’s payload capacity and the strategic value of a hypersonic strike option, particularly against time-sensitive, high-value targets at ranges that render conventional countermeasures ineffective.

Ghost Bat – from demonstrator to collaborative combat aircraft

No RAAF program better exemplifies the IIP’s emphasis on indigenous capability development than the Boeing Defence Australia MQ-28A Ghost Bat.

What began as an advanced development program has, by early 2026, crossed a threshold of operational maturity that few observers predicted this quickly.

On 8 December 2025, a Ghost Bat aircraft conducted the first live weapons firing by any unmanned aircraft using an AIM-120 AMRAAM, destroying a fighter-class target drone over the Woomera Range Complex in South Australia.

The engagement involved an MQ-28A teamed with an E-7A Wedgetail and an F/A-18F Super Hornet in a three-platform kill chain, with the E-7 authorising the engagement, the Super Hornet acquiring the target, and the Ghost Bat conducting the intercept on four high-level autonomous commands: take off, establish defensive counter-air patrol, leave the patrol and intercept, and engage. The simplicity of the command architecture against the complexity of the execution underscores the sophistication of the mission autonomy software that Boeing’s Phantom Works division has developed in collaboration with the RAAF and the Defence Science and Technology Group.

The 2026 IIP allocates between $6.4 billion and $8.1 billion to uncrewed aerial systems, with the Ghost Bat program at its centre. The Australian government has committed to a third tranche of aircraft, building on the initial three prototype aircraft and the six Block 2 production aircraft under contract.

Bang for our buck: GWEO

The Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) enterprise, while not a uniquely RAAF program, has wide-reaching impacts on the Air Force. Established to address Australia’s profound vulnerability to munitions shortfalls in a sustained conflict, it is given renewed urgency in the 2026 IIP.

The core insight driving the enterprise that modern high-intensity conflict consumes precision-guided munitions at rates that entirely outpace peacetime stockpile assumptions has been given empirical weight by three years of observation from the war in Ukraine and Middle East conflict.

The IIP confirms that Australia has signed an agreement with the US for co-production, sustainment, and follow-on co-development of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), establishing a sovereign manufacturing pathway for the precision strike rockets that are central to Army long-range fires.

A development pathway toward co-production of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), capable of engaging targets at ranges beyond 500 kilometres in current configurations, with a stated objective of extending that reach beyond 1,000 kilometres, is also confirmed, alongside the continued development of hypersonic cruise missiles under SCIFiRE.

The GWEO enterprise’s interaction with RAAF capabilities is most visible in the expansion of air-launched munitions stockpiles. The IIP confirms increased acquisition of AMRAAM, AIM-9X, AARGM-ER, and Mk-48 heavyweight torpedoes, alongside the new programs for JATM, LRASM integration, JASSM-ER on the F-35A, and JSM.

Aussie Dome: IAMD finally gets traction

Of all the capability gaps identified in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review, Integrated Air and Missile Defence has been the most persistently discussed and the most slowly funded.

The 2026 IIP represents the most concrete investment commitment to date, though analysts and industry observers remain alert to the gap between commitment and delivery.

The IIP commits between $21 billion and $30 billion over the decade to deliver a layered IAMD capability designed to detect, track, counter, withstand, and recover from missile attacks. The investment is structured across multiple layers.

The National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), the short-range component under Project LAND 19 Phase 7B, is confirmed as progressing through initial fielding with Army, establishing the lowest layer of the future integrated architecture.

The IIP language is notably direct: acquisition is to commence immediately, with investment directed toward a resilient, networked capability forming a core component of the National Integrated Air and Missile Defence System. The identity of the selected system remains undeclared, though the accelerating fielding of systems such as the Raytheon Patriot PAC-3 MSE, the Kongsberg NASAMS extended range, and the European MBDA SAMP/T in comparable programs internationally provides a field of plausible candidates.

The IIP also notes that additional medium-term opportunities to expand IAMD capability will be explored beyond the MRGBAD acquisition.

A separate investment stream addresses low-altitude air defence, specifically counter-uncrewed aerial systems (C-UAS). Both dismounted and vehicle-mounted configurations are to be acquired for deployed forces, designed to counter the drone and helicopter threat at altitudes and ranges below those addressed by NASAMS.

The lessons from Ukraine are explicitly referenced: the proliferation of low-cost UAS as both surveillance and attack platforms has rendered low-altitude air defence a basic force protection requirement rather than a specialised capability.

The IIP also confirms between $7.2 billion and $10 billion for active missile defence capabilities across the air, land, and maritime domains, establishing the multi-domain missile launcher architecture that will integrate the various ground-based systems into a unified C2 framework.

This is the architectural layer that determines whether Australia fields a genuine integrated air and missile defence capability or simply accumulates a collection of independent systems with limited mutual support.

Wedgetail, Triton and an integrated ISR ecosystem

The 2026 IIP addresses the RAAF’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance architecture in ways that extend well beyond the air combat force. The E-7A Wedgetail remains central to Australian IAMD and air combat command and control, and the IIP confirms its retention and continued upgrade investment.

More intriguing is the flagging of a longer-term replacement program for the Wedgetail with a “next generation aircraft.” Given that no such aircraft currently exists in the global market, this investment line reflects either a confidence in future program developments, potentially building on US Air Force Battle Management Command and Control (BMC2) aircraft programs, or a recognition that the E-7A platform will reach the limits of structural and systems life well before mid-century.

The MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance UAS program reaches its planned end with the fourth aircraft, confirmed for delivery next year, to be the RAAF’s last under the original requirement.

The IIP does not indicate an expansion of the Triton fleet, though the persistent, wide-area maritime surveillance mission the Triton performs remains as strategically relevant as ever amid growing Indo-Pacific maritime competition.

Strategic multiplier: Northern bases

Air power does not exist in the abstract or a vacuum. It operates from bases, and the 2026 IIP’s commitment of between $13 billion and $16 billion to northern base hardening and expansion is among its most operationally significant investments.

RAAF Bases Darwin, Learmonth, and Tindal, the three key northern air combat bases, are to be hardened, expanded, and made more resilient against the kind of precision strike that adversary long-range missile systems could deliver.

The investment addresses dispersed basing architectures, improved fuel storage and resilience, hardened shelters, and infrastructure designed to sustain surge operations. The strategic logic is direct: an air power strategy premised on denial must assume that the bases from which that air power operates will themselves be contested.

Investments in offensive capability that are not matched by investments in the survivability and resilience of the bases and logistics chains that sustain operations are incomplete. The 2026 IIP explicitly recognises this, and the northern bases investment is the structural expression of that recognition.

Progress with some caveats

The 2026 NDS and IIP represent the most coherent and ambitious Australian air power investment framework in a generation. The confirmed weapons portfolio for the F-35A, set to include JATM, LRASM, JASSM-ER, JSM, and AARGM-ER, transforms the aircraft from an already capable fifth-generation fighter into a platform with genuine strategic depth across air superiority, maritime strike, suppression of enemy air defences, and deep land attack.

The caveats are real, however. Delivery timelines for the most capable systems, particularly the JATM, which is not scheduled for first delivery until around 2033, extend into a period of strategic uncertainty in which current deterrence must rest on existing capabilities.

The MRGBAD acquisition timeline, while described as commencing as a priority in 2026, will face the same global competition for interceptors that has characterised every Western IAMD procurement since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

And the GWEO enterprise’s sovereign manufacturing ambitions, while strategically necessary, will take years to translate into the munitions depth that sustained operations would demand.

The 2026 National Defence Strategy has provided the RAAF with a clearer, better-funded roadmap than it has had at any point since the end of the Cold War. Whether the institutional machinery, the industrial base, and the workforce exist to execute that programme at the pace the strategic environment demands is a question the biennial review cycle will return to, with, one hopes, a more complete answer each time.