Opinion: An imperfect storm

This flight corridor is known to be dangerous and overcrowded, with numerous ‘near-miss’ incidents, and many experts warned that an accident was bound to happen. While the final report is pending, a mix of technological issues and human error appears to be at play.

The crash – the deadliest aviation disaster in nearly 25 years – drew in a valid onslaught of media attention. And, unfortunately, we all know the old adage; bad things come in threes. The very next day after the Flight 5342 disaster, a Learjet 55 air ambulance carrying six people crashed in northern Philadelphia, killing all six people onboard as well as two people on the ground. Then, two weeks later, on 17 February, a Delta plane skidded across a runway and flipped onto its top – and while the photo and video evidence is jarring, there were no serious injuries reported.

Given the devastation and chaos experienced in quick succession, the media buzz went wild, and the impact was undeniable. Consumer polls quickly began to show a sharp decline in confidence from the flying public. One survey, completed by The Associated Press Center for Public Affairs Research after the DC and Philadelphia crashes but before the Toronto incident, suggested that one in five Americans now rate air travel as “somewhat” to “very unsafe” – an increase of 50 per cent since 2024.

Meanwhile, the shift in traveller attitudes has shown itself in future bookings, with major US airlines including Delta, American, United, Southwest and Alaska all lowering their expected profit guidance in light of falling demand for air travel. Analysts suggest this could cost the US up to 0.3% in GDP growth, or $71 billion, not accounting for other factors, like the global trade war.

The Newark issue

Notably, despite some rhetoric attempting to do so, none of the major collision incidents could be attributed to systemic failures in the air traffic control industry. And yet, in the weeks after these incidents, over 400 air traffic controllers were fired by the US Federal Aviation Administration in the name of government efficiency measures.

In the midst of this, Newark Airport – a major NYC gateway and among the most congested airspaces in the world – has come under heavy scrutiny due to the severity of disruption and the increased safety risk. To begin, one of Newark’s two runways is currently closed due to tarmac upgrades, meaning Newark Air Traffic controllers are funnelling all traffic through one runway. Meanwhile, outdated radar technologies and communication systems in the control tower led to 90-second radar blackouts and radio issues, briefly leaving aircraft completely uncontactable, resulting in hundreds of delayed and cancelled flights. The consistent issues and resulting press attention saw passengers taking to social media to express their concerns about travelling via Newark. The issues of air traffic control conditions and passenger confidence, once seemingly unrelated, are now inextricably intertwined. Ultimately, the FAA and current Administration were made to support a plan to update the facilities of major control towers – decades-overdue upgrades which will take years to implement.

It is no surprise, then, that the industry is still haemorrhaging talent, as trained and experienced controllers continue to throw in the towel and walk off the job, putting more pressure on the few that remain. A notable aside – Airservices Australia has seen the opportunity in such a crisis, and may soon see a handful of new US trainees. Airservices recently launched an “international campaign”, according to its online careers website, which offers a four-year subclass 482 visa with pathways to permanent residence to overseas air traffic controllers with at least 5 years’ experience. Reports suggest this offer, which includes paid relocation, generous benefits, and improved quality of life – has been taken up by employees across several US ATC towers.

What does this all mean?

We know that the international economy is so deeply interconnected that a US market downturn has undeniable impacts on our own markets at home. The optimist in me says US market sentiment is known to hold strong. Amid the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, the American market never came to the total standstill that Australia’s did, and passenger traffic picked up again quickly.

However, the less optimistic side of me suggests that we are likely one more major incident away from an aviation PR crisis that will be hard to overcome. Further, as critical air traffic controllers continue to quite, the likelihood of disaster only increases, which raises far more issues than image; there are lives at stake. While we can’t impact the US market half as much as it can impact us, at the very least, perhaps we can learn from the errors made overseas and uphold safety, innovation and employee wellbeing as paramount.