Beyond the F-35: Upgrading Australia’s fighter fleet

Moreover, the role of air superiority fighters extends beyond mere defence. They act as force multipliers, enabling the projection of power, support of ground and naval operations, and ensuring the security of critical infrastructure and supply chains. In coalition operations, these aircraft are essential for maintaining air dominance and interoperability among allied forces.

As we look to the 2030s and beyond, the development and deployment of advanced air superiority capable fighter aircraft will be crucial for maintaining national security, ensuring global stability and adapting to the fast-paced technological advancements shaping modern warfare. Across the Indo-Pacific, friend and foe alike are engaging in a comprehensive modernisation of their air combat capabilities, resulting in the fielding of some truly awesome, high-capability air platforms from China’s J-20 and FC-31 and South Korea’s KF-21 through to Japan’s in-development F-X.

This brings us to Australia’s fleet of 72 F-35As, 24 Super Hornets and 12 Growlers, which the government has committed to maintaining throughout the 2030s and into the 2040s. While the F-35s may be new, the Super Hornets and Growlers have an average airframe age of between 20 years for the Growlers and 30 years for the Super Hornets. All of this means the RAAF must have one eye on the future. So, what are our options?

The joint UK, Japan, and Italian option

Perhaps one of the most unforeseen partnerships is the collaboration between the UK, Japan, and Italy to develop the “sixth-generation” Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) resulting from the Tempest and F-X programs, respectively. As part of the joint development program, the GCAP airframe is expected to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon in British and Italian service and the Mitsubishi F-2 (an enlarged, Japanese-specific variant of the Lockheed Martin F-16) in Japanese service, respectively, with a flight demonstrator expected by 2027.

As a sixth-generation platform, the GCAP is set to incorporate a host of revolutionary technologies, including directed energy weapons, an augmented reality cockpit, biometric and psycho-analytical monitoring, artificial intelligence, and the capacity to partner with loyal wingman platforms. As a collaborative program, the original partners have identified the potential for further international collaboration drawing in Sweden, Germany, and Saudi Arabia, with the development program currently supporting approximately 9,000 jobs and more than 1,000 suppliers worldwide.

While platform specifics remain scarce, the collaborative nature and interoperable focus of the program provide important scale while also ensuring that the platform can operate seamlessly with other key allied platforms – namely from the US.

This brings us to the second option: the other European sixth-generation fighter aircraft.

FCAS – Europe’s other fighter program

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is an ambitious defence initiative jointly undertaken by France, Germany, and Spain to develop a next-generation combat air system. Central to the FCAS is the Next-Generation Fighter (NGF), which is intended to replace current fighter jets like the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale by around 2040. Much like the GCAP, the NGF will feature advanced stealth capabilities, AI integration, and enhanced situational awareness, making it a formidable addition to the European air defence arsenal.

In addition to the NGF, FCAS includes the development of remote carriers (RC), which are uncrewed aerial vehicles designed to support the NGF in various roles such as reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and direct combat operations. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will enhance the operational flexibility and capability of the NGF by acting as force multipliers, extending the range and effectiveness of missions.

The development of FCAS is structured in multiple phases, beginning with Phase 1A, which was launched in 2020. This initial phase focuses on conceptual and initial design work, involving close collaboration between the defence industries of the participating countries. Future phases will delve into detailed design, prototyping, and eventual production, with significant milestones expected around 2025 and beyond.

Despite its potential, the FCAS program faces several challenges. These include the complexity of integrating advanced technologies from different nations, ensuring sustained financial support and fostering effective collaboration between national industries and defence ministries. Equally, little information is known about the capabilities of the platform and its capacity to function interoperability with other allied platforms, leaving a major question mark for Australian consideration, but it isn’t without precedent given Australia’s history of operating the French-designed and built Mirage fighter aircraft.

The American options – NGAD and F/A-XX

This leaves Australia’s incumbent air combat capability provider; the United States has recognised the limitations of their existing 4.5 and fifth-generation fighter aircraft in the face of emerging peer competitor threats from both Russia and China and the potential for proliferation of similar platforms across the globe. The NGAD program, overseen by the US Air Force, is designed to replace the F-22 Raptor with a sixth-generation fighter. This initiative is part of a broader “family of systems” approach that includes manned and unmanned aircraft, advanced sensors, and enhanced connectivity with other military assets.

Key features of the NGAD platform include open architecture standards to facilitate upgrades and maintenance, a sophisticated propulsion system known as the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP), and significant autonomy capabilities to operate in conjunction with AI-driven drone wingmen.

The US Air Force aims to have the NGAD in production by the end of the decade, with substantial investments planned to support its development. Now yes, there will be some portion of people who will say that if the US wouldn’t sell us the Raptor we have next to no chance of getting involved in the NGAD or F/A-XX program, but the world has changed and AUKUS, in particular, has changed it.

Meanwhile, the US Navy’s F/A-XX program is designed to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, aligning with the broader NGAD efforts but catering specifically to the Navy’s needs, including carrier-based operations. While details on the F/A-XX are more limited, the Navy’s version will likely share technological advancements with the Air Force’s NGAD, emphasising interoperability, advanced propulsion, and stealth capabilities​ for a superlative carrier-based fighter aircraft.

However, it is important to remember that budget considerations and industry partnerships play significant roles in these programs’ success, providing an interesting and exciting opportunity for Australia to engage early to the maximum benefit of the RAAF’s future air combat capability.

One thing Australia has learned (or at least we hope we have learned) in recent years is that it is never too early to start planning for the next major acquisition. In the case of next-generation crewed air combat capabilities, the world is indeed our oyster.