Opinion: Are Australia’s airlines prepared for recovery?

The flying public are clearly less than impressed since this is far from the first poor press for Qantas in recent memory. From stranded passengers to lost and damaged bags, Qantas and the industry as a whole have plagued with problems since the reopening of borders last year.

Meanwhile, we’re still yet to see the industry tip its pre-pandemic flight capacity. The closest we have seen was in June when the domestic aviation market reached 97 per cent of its pre-pandemic capacity, but simultaneously saw airlines and airports crumble under the pressure. At the same time, Qantas announced that it plans to exceed its pre-pandemic flight schedule by October 2023. Virgin Australia CEO Jayne Hrdlicka, on the other hand, revealed late last year that while passenger demand had surpassed 2019 levels, the airline was unable to keep up. “It’s people capacity, not aircraft capacity,” she said. This all begs the question: are airlines really prepared for a full-scale recovery?

We know that our industry shrank in 2020–21, with thousands of aviation professionals either stood down, let go, or walking away of their own volition thanks to burnout. However, despite a significantly smaller workforce, Australia’s domestic aviation industry has been booming since Easter 2022, meaning its full steam ahead with getting staff back onboard. For pilots, a quick search online returns nearly 400 jobs currently advertised in Australia. In the last six months, Qantas Rex and Virgin have all taken on new pilots, with a focus on beefing up their regional ranks, and in the case of Qantas, its most junior long-haul staff.

But there is a possibility that Australian carriers might be too slow off the mark. Across the Pacific, airlines in the US have been hiring at unprecedented rates since 2021, amid the biggest skills shortage since the aviation industry took off.

In the last edition of the Australian Aviation magazine, I wrote an extensive feature about US airlines snapping up qualified and experienced Australian pilots specifically, under the E-3 nonimmigrant visa program. While exact figures are hard to lock down, we know that at least a few hundred Australians are now flying aircraft for Uncle Sam currently. In fact, the trend is so prominent that Alliance Airlines acknowledged in August 2022 that it needed to increase “non-monetary” incentives to boost pilot recruitment and retention after it began to shed pilots leaving to “take roles overseas”.

Importantly, the US domestic market is 12 times the size of Australia’s, and growing a rapidly faster rate, meaning opportunities are plentiful, and airlines are desperate motivated. As I detailed in the last edition, US airlines aren’t just offering unprecedented career opportunities to Australian crew, they’re sweeting the deal with generous, unrivaled wages and travel benefits. Meanwhile, in the last three years, both Virgin Australia and Qantas have landed themselves in court against pilot and cabin crew unions, amid heated negotiations over their pay and working conditions.

The way I see it, Australian airlines are today at a crossroads. Our local industry is small, yes. But each and every year, the wide world gets smaller. It seems to me like the global pandemic saw a lot of people — both within this industry and across all — take stock of what they want from their lives and careers. In aviation, the world really is your oyster.

Australian airlines and their customers have already witnessed the chaos and commotions that comes from having far too few trained, experienced, and passionate workers ready and willing to turn up for the job. So, while US airlines have stepped up to the plate when it comes to incentivising their workforce to join and stay in their ranks, the reality is Australian carriers need to take notes before they once again can’t compete.