Seeing the sunrise

Even with that low seat count, SIA chief executive Goh Choon Phong says there will be days in the northern hemisphere winter when the aircraft will face operating restrictions due to the prevailing winds.

“I think there could be some payload concerns, on the cargo side particularly,” Goh told reporters on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general meeting in Sydney on June 4.

“There could be some payload concerns during the winter coming back.”

Goh’s comments about the A350-900ULR’s likely performance on the 8,285nm mission – remember the service does not begin until October 11 – highlights the challenge facing both Airbus and Boeing as the pair races to develop an airframe capable of meeting the ambitious targets within Qantas’s Project Sunrise.

That is, flying from Australia’s east coast to both London and New York (among other destinations) with what the airline wants as a commercially viable payload. Sydney-London Heathrow is 9,188nm.

And the clock is ticking.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce outlined the Project Sunrise timetable to reporters on the sidelines of the IATA AGM on June 4.

It was hoped the technical evaluation with Airbus and Boeing – as well as consultation with regulators on fatigue management issues and crew rest rules, and discussions with pilots – would be concluded by the end of calendar 2018.

“There’s a lot of parallel processes,” Joyce explained.

Once concluded, the process would then shift to a request for proposal (RFP) with both manufacturers. the decision on aircraft type would be made in 2019 for delivery in 2022, should the business case stack up.

“I keep on saying if the business case works because there is a lot of logistics,” Joyce said.

Three hundred seats, four classes

And what exactly does Qantas want on board the eventual aircraft to operate these nonstop services?

The answer to that question is still being worked through, Qantas international chief executive Alison Webster told reporters at the IATA AGM.
For now, the ambition was to have a high-capacity, multi-class cabin and “zones” for other in-flight activities.

“First and foremost for us, we are now looking at an aircraft configuration that gives us some flexibility and an opportunity for around an over 300-passenger seat count on the aircraft for the economics to be in the right place for us,” Webster said.

“We are clearly still moving around though the final numbers on that because we are also looking at a four-cabin configuration of the aircraft design and again as I said these are all still works in progress.

“No definitive decisions have been made around what will appear on that aircraft.”
Webster said part of the cabin analysis was consideration of different zones on the aircraft for alternate activities during the estimated 21-hour sector on Sydney-London.
However, what those zones would be had yet to be determined.

“In terms of zones, to be honest we’re not even sure what we mean by that yet,” Webster said.

“What we do know is, we want to have multi-function capability on the aircraft. This is about reimagining how ultra-long-haul travel will take place and we are cognisant that for that period of time on an aircraft we will need to provide options and flexibility for our customers.”

And the research on jetlag on board Qantas’s Perth-London Heathrow (7,829nm) nonstop flight that kicked off in March being undertaken in partnership with the University of Sydney’s Charles Perkins Centre is also expected to feed into the passenger experience on those services to London and New York.

So far, about 20 passengers on the Perth-London Heathrow service have been surveyed through the use of three separate special wearables – two on the wrist and one on the thigh – preflight questionnaires and a tablet device during the flight for them to record their meal choices, mental state and experience.

There was also a post-flight questionnaire asking about matters such as their experience of jetlag and routine after arriving.

“These are the raw materials from which we are going to seek the patterns which will allow us to answer the question, ‘are the things that we’ve done by way of intervention actually having an impact and on whom are they working most effectively?’,” Prof Simpson told reporters during a Qantas media event on June 3.

Prof Simpson said the surveying ramp up over the next 12-18 months, with the number of subjects potentially reaching 1,000 during the next phase of the trial.

Further, the survey could also include other routes beyond Perth-London Heathrow and other aircraft types in the Qantas fleet.

An interesting data point from the survey showed one male passenger recorded zero steps – that is, he did not move at all – during the 17-hour journey between Perth and London.

“One thing I couldn’t believe is how little some people move when they are flying,” Prof Simpson said.

“It’s inconceivable but true. The device was working. The person did have a vital signs at the end of the trip so the two obvious explanations were discounted.”

Qantas consulting chef Neil Perry, whose Rockpool Bar and Grill was the venue for event, quipped: “He must have had a very good bladder.”
More broadly, Prof Simpson said initial survey indicated passengers who tried to maintain a normal routine with sleep, exercise and healthy eating felt better when they got to their destination. By contrast, passengers who “fought” against jet lag were likely to feel worse.

Airbus and Zodiac Aerospace show off lower-deck modules

One idea that has gotten some traction of late is the use of the cargo deck for passenger activities.

In April, Airbus and Zodiac Aerospace announced they would partner to develop and market passenger berths that would fit inside the aircraft’s cargo compartments.

Concept drawings released by Airbus showed four different zones, comprising a conference room, lounge, kids and family area, and medical care zone.
The pair said these modules would be interchangeable with regular cargo containers and would not affect the aircraft’s cargo flow and cargo loading system.

“An improved passenger experience is today a key element of differentiation for airlines,” Zodiac Aerospace Cabin Branch chief executive Christophe Bernardini said in a statement.

The head of Airbus cabin and cargo programme Geoff Pinner said the feedback from several airlines to the first mockups had been very positive.
“This approach to commercial air travel is a step change towards passenger comfort,” Pinner said.

Boeing’s 777-8X design almost set

Boeing says it is close to finalising the design work on the 777-8X long range widebody that will be its contender for Qantas’s Project Sunrise challenge.

The 777-8X, and larger 777-9X, features new General Electric GE9X-105B1A engines capable of delivering 105,000lb of thrust, new composite wings with folding wingtips to maintain its Code E rating at airports, as well as in-cabin enhancements such as larger overhead stowage and a wider cross section.

While the 777-8X is still in development and yet to reach firm configuration, the Boeing website lists the aircraft as having a range of 8,700nm and a passenger capacity of 350-375 passengers. The aircraft is expected to enter service in 2022.

However, the final specifications will only be known after further development of the aircraft design and an analysis of its engine performance. The GE9X engine began flight testing on General Electric’s flying testbed in late 2017.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes senior managing director for marketing analysis and sales support Darren Hulst said the program was “very close” to finalising the design specifications for the 777-8X.

“I mean, we are kind of finalising the design weights and those things but it is pretty close to being firm,” Hulst told reporters on the sidelines IATA AGM on June 3.

“We are really happy and encouraged by the pace of development to this point in terms of the schedule, in terms of the technology, in terms of the progress.”

Airbus mulls development of second ultra long range A350 variant

Airbus is putting forward its A350-900ULR – the same one SIA is using for its Singapore-New York nonstop – for Qantas’s Project Sunrise challenge.
While the airframer’s chief commercial officer Eric Schulz acknowledged the A350-900ULR of today was not quite up to meeting Qantas’s needs, there was work that could be done to improve the performance of the aircraft.

“The advantage we have is that we have an A350-900ULR ultra long range which is already flying with Singapore Airlines doing Singapore to the US which is quite similar in terms of trip and operational challenges,” Schulz told reporters on the sidelines of the IATA AGM on June 4.

“The aircraft does a little bit less than what Project Sunrise will require but we know how to drive this.

“We have other developments within Airbus that we will bring to the table at the time.”

One of those developments could be an ultra-long-range variant of the larger A350-1000 widebody.

“This is the flexibility we have,” Schulz said.

“The 900 and 1000 are very similar airplanes, they have just the capacity changes so whatever we have been able to do on the 900ULR clearly we can deploy on the 1000ULR as well.

“We are looking at both options.

“I am convinced that we have at least one if not two products that could do the mission.”

Airbus has not published seating data for the the A350-900ULR, stating only the long-range variant was capable of flying more than 20 hours and had a range of up to 9,700nm based on a “typical high premium cabin”.

The A350-900ULR features a modified fuel system, which increases the fuel carrying capacity by 24,000 litres (from 141,000 litres to 165,000 litres) over the standard A350-900 without the need for additional fuel tanks. This is achieved through modifications to the layout of the piping and valves within the fuel tank.

There is also a performance improvement package with larger winglets, a slight twist to the wing compared with the standard A350-900, as well as changes to the flap fairing and belly fairing. The A350-900ULR has a maximum takeoff weight of 280 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the current A350-1000, has a range of 7,950nm, a maximum takeoff weight of 308 tonnes and a maximum fuel capacity of 156,000l, according to the Airbus website. It can carry 366 passengers in a typical seating configuration.

Schulz described the discussions with Qantas as an iterative process.

“So at the beginning, Qantas could have the temptation to put many, many seats and then the reality might be a bit different,” Schulz said.
“What we need to understand is these are not markets that exist today.

“These iterations have started but they are far from being concluded.”

Qantas likely to have Australia-United Kingdom nonstop market to itself for now

One-time Qantas shareholder and alliance partner British Airways (BA) is the last remaining European airline flying its own aircraft to Australia.
And with the United Kingdom’s other flag carrier Virgin Atlantic more focused on the trans-Atlantic given its alliance with Delta Air Lines and with Air France-KLM a part owner, BA was seemingly the only one likely to contemplate Australia-UK nonstop flights.

However, the chief executive of BA’s parent company International Airlines Group (IAG) Willie Walsh said there were no plans to follow in Qantas’s footsteps.

“We’re not looking to do direct flights from Heathrow to Australia,” Walsh told delegates at a CAPA – Centre for Aviation conference in Sydney on June 6.

“Codesharing is an option but in terms of using our metal, we’re not considering it.

“Personally, the idea of sitting on an aircraft for 21 hours to get from Heathrow to Sydney, I don’t know, it just doesn’t appeal to me.”
Locally, Virgin Australia too has shown no ambition for ultra-long-haul flights.

While BA was not keen on Australia-UK nonstops, Airbus’s Schulz said there were other airlines aside from Qantas looking at ultra-long-haul aircraft.
“There is an interest for other operations who have ultra-long-range missions to look at these options and look at these possibilities,” Schulz said.
“I can think of at least three different operators who have, I would say, for a part of their network, the kind of ultra-long-range mission would be required quite similar to Project Sunrise.”

While Boeing’s Hulst noted the interest in the Boeing 777-8X for Qantas’s Project Sunrise challenge, as well as from Air New Zealand’s ambition to offer a Auckland-New York (7,671nm) nonstop service, in this part of the world, he was keen to point out the 777-8X also needed the flexibility to fulfil a range of missions required from other airline customers.

“Airlines are very focused on an airplane that fits more than just a very small subset of markets, they want an airplane that has versatility and whether you’re Qantas or whether you’re an airline in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world,” Hulst said.

“You want an airplane that’s most efficient in its class and it’s the most flexible in terms of where it can be deployed in the network.
“I would focus less on the ultimate range of the aircraft and focus more on the fact that this aircraft has the most range capability of any airplane, current or future, and it is also more efficient than other aircraft in its class.

“Airlines need the capability but they also need the versatility, you need to be able to deploy it on multiple routes or it won’t make sense, it won’t buy its way into a fleet.”

There have been 326 orders for the 777-X program, comprising 53 for the 777-8X and 273 for the 777-9X, according to the Boeing website.
Meanwhile, Airbus had logged 847 orders for the A350 program, comprising 679 for the A350-900 (including the seven A350-900ULRs for SIA) and 168 for the A350-1000.