Replacing the replacements

Today the F/A-18 is still in RAAF service but in a much-upgraded and improved form as it enters the twilight of its career. And I still have that 1977 issue, albeit with several cut or missing pages where pictures of Viggens, Tomcats and YF-17s were long ago cut out to adorn various schoolbook covers.

While it’s not the best nor the fastest fighter, the F/A-18 has undoubtedly proven itself to be one of the most versatile combat aircraft in history. Its pilots are almost universal in their praise of its forgiving handling qualities, systems redundancy, and the all-important human-machine interface (HMI).

The Project AIR6000 effort to replace the classic Hornet (and the F-111) was initiated in the late 1990s, and like the Mirage replacement program two decades earlier, the project team initially had an open mind about how the RAAF would retain both fighter and strike capabilities post 2012. But the Howard Government cut short this process in 2002 when it joined the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program as one of nine partner nations, effectively locking the F-35 Lightning II in as Australia’s next air combat capability.

It has been well documented that the JSF has had far more than its share of developmental and programmatic issues, resulting in its planned RAAF service entry slipping nearly eight years. So while a small training capability of initially two RAAF F-35As and a growing cadre of pilots and support staff is now embedded with the USAF at Luke AFB in Arizona, the type is still at least three years away from achieving any kind of operational capability with the RAAF.

SUPER HORNET

The JSF program delays pushed the arrival of the F-35 out beyond the life of type of the F-111. Despite initial hopes early last decade that it could continue to be upgraded and soldier on to 2020, the beloved ‘Pig’ was retired in 2010 due to spiraling sustainment costs associated with being an ‘orphan operator’, and growing safety concerns.

Instead, a ‘bridging capability’ of 24 F/A-18F Super Hornets was rapidly procured to not only retain a viable strike capability until the F-35 enters service and is bedded down, but to also maintain a training and operational throughput of fast jet pilots and air combat officers.

But continuing delays with JSF have seen the initial plan to operate the Super Hornets for only a decade abandoned, and it is now likely these jets will be retained until at least 2030 when a third tranche of combat aircraft planned to be selected under Phase 2C of Project AIR6000 in about 2025 will start to enter service.

Indeed, this blow out has meant many of the initial operational savings the RAAF had hoped for with the more modern Super Hornets compared to the high operating costs of the F-111 may never now be realised, as few provisions were made in those initial costings for preventative through-life maintenance that an aircraft expected to be in service for two or more decades would require.

But the US Navy has reportedly cooled on the F-35C and is continuing to buy Super Hornets in small numbers. In response Boeing has proposed its Block III Super Hornet featuring structural enhancements, uprated engines, conformal fuel tanks, additional low observable coatings and shaping, new sensors and weapons, enhanced communications, a new central processing unit, and improved cockpit displays in order to keep the jet tactically and operationally viable out to 2040. And with the RAAF expected to remain in lockstep with the US Navy to retain commonality, many of these enhancements could find their way onto Australia’s jets.

Chosen in 1981 and introduced into service from 1985, the F/A-18 is still going strong.

Boeing says new-build Block III jets could be available from FY2019, while existing Block II airframes would be retrofitted as part of a service life modification program (SLMP) which would also extend the Super Hornet’s planned airframe life from 6000 to 9000 hours. The US Navy has requested Block III development funding to the tune of US$265m (A$337m) in its FY2018 budget allocation, and many of these enhancements have either already been funded for or will also be available for the ‘Advanced Growler’.

This raises an interesting opportunity for the RAAF, one which may allow it to skip Phase 2C altogether, and instead make a smaller investment by retaining and upgrading the Super Hornets to operate alongside the four squadrons of 72 F-35s already committed to under Phases 2A/2B. So rather than being the last aircraft to be replaced under AIR6000, the Super Hornets could instead be the first to be replaced under the next replacement program in the 2040s.

“I think it’s possible our Super Hornets will be upgraded to Block III and potentially, our Growlers upgraded to Advanced Growler standards,” Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst from Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) told us. “It’s very clear the F/A-18F and Growler could be effective through to the 2040s with these upgrades, and that would then enable us to look at replacing them and the F-35 with something more capable in that timeframe.”

PHASE 2C

At the moment, Phase 2C of AIR6000 is scheduled to be considered once the F-35A is in service and has achieved final operational capability (FOC), for service entry from 2030. It is likely three scenarios are being considered; an additional 28 to 30 F-35As which would replace the Super Hornets and provide a few attrition airframes; retention and an upgrade of the Super Hornets as described above; or the replacement of the Super Hornets with an altogether different type.

While not the cheapest, the easy choice would be to buy additional F-35As, especially if development remains on schedule, and it has had a smooth RAAF service introduction and is meeting all of its operational requirements.

“AU-1 and 2 made their trans-Pacific crossing to appear at the Avalon Air Show, and they have been performing remarkably well in their training role at Luke AFB,” Lockheed Martin’s director of F-35 international business development, Steve Over told an Australian media briefing on July 31. “They’ve flown a little bit shy of 1100 total flight hours, and approaching 700 total sorties. When I think of a mature weapon system, they’re flying at about the utilisation rate that a mature weapon system like F-16s or F-18s are returning at. So the airplanes have really been performing remarkably well.

“To date, four Australian pilots are certified instructor pilots on the F-35, and you have two more students that are in training,” he added. “Next year, we deliver eight F-35s to Australia (AU-3 to AU-10)…first to Luke AFB. Then in December 2018, Australia’s first two F-35s will come home permanently to Australia to be based at RAAF Williamtown.”

Production of the F-35 now ramping up to 90 jets per year and the global fleet of more than 200 jets based at a dozen locations in the US, Israel and Japan recently surpassed 100,000 hours. Therefore, it seems the only remaining threat to Australia’s operational rollout of the jet could come from further development issues, specifically of the Block 3F operational software required for the RAAF to achieve initial operating capability (IOC), and any deferral or delays to follow-on block upgrades.

“Right now the development program is rapidly winding to a close. We’re within three per cent of the testing to complete the development program and we’re in the final stages of tweaking the Block 3F software that will be pushed to the field later this year,” Over said. “The full functional capability that we’ve promised with Block 3F is actually flying in (flight test) jets right now and so it’s identifying the things that don’t work quite as the pilots would like for them to work and we’re tweaking through those last little details now.”

Block 3F will not only allow the F-35A to realize its full 9G maneuverability envelope, but will also see the full integration of key communications, sensors and weapons, and the maturation of the troubled autonomic logistics information system, or ALIS. Some of the weapons systems planned for F-35 include a new beyond visual range missile, possible the MBDA Meteor which recently entered service in Sweden and France, or a further evolution of the AIM-120D AMRAAM which Australia recently ordered for its Super Hornets.

Miniature munitions such as the Small Diameter Bomb (SDB II) and MDBA Spear will add punch to the small internal ‘Day One’ load of the F-35, as will planned enhanced active electronic warfare capabilities. Further down the track, concepts for the development of directed energy weapons appear to be rapidly maturing for employment larger platforms, while the F-35 has already demonstrated its ability to operate as a forward airborne sensor that can be integrated with air and missile defense systems such as Aegis and Patriot via its low- probability-of-intercept Multifunction Advanced Data Link (MADL) system.

Only once 75SQN, the last of the RAAF’s fighter squadrons to relinquish its classic Hornets for F-35s in 2023 and the jet achieves FOC, will Phase 2C come into consideration.

A 6TH GENERATION?

So what could a notional 6th generation combat aircraft look like? Certainly the main US prime contractors have all published artists impressions of conceptual US Navy ‘F/A-XX’ or USAF ‘Next generation Air Dominance’ (NGAD) designs in recent years, but they have revealed little detail about the proposed capabilities of these concepts.

The US Navy says the F/A-XX is slated to replace the Super Hornet from the 2030s onwards, and RFIs have already been released to industry to explore the art of the possible. While the unmanned MQ-25 Stingray program appears destined to result in only a carrier-borne forward operating air-to-air refueller and sensor platform rather than the promise of a penetrating strike UCAS that has been proven to be technically feasible through the X-47B UCAS-D program, it appears likely the F/A-XX will be a manned platform.

Similarly, the USAF’s NGAD is seeking to “develop a program that mates cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and even space capabilities to advance the state of the art in air-to-air and air-to-ground warfare.” It is envisaged NGAD will replace initially the F-22 as well as any remaining F-15C/Es in the inventory, and it will also likely be manned.

Perhaps the first place to look at what capabilities these new aircraft may have is to study what was achieved with the F-22, and more recently, the F-35 compared to the familiar 4th generation fighters such as F-15, F-16, F/A-18, Eurofighter, Rafale etc.

“It starts with a foundation of VLO stealth, without that the airplane could not do what it does, but it is frankly about so much more,” Lockheed Martin’s Gary Over said of the F-35. “Stealth gives it the ability to operate in the battle space with impunity, but to that we’ve added the most advanced multi-spectral sensor suite that’s ever been operated on a fighter, we’ve taken networked enabled operations to the next level, and if someone was to ask me where the magic is in this airplane, the magic is in the sensor fusion…so the pilot is able to operate more as a tactician.”

ASPI’s Malcolm Davis agrees that a combination of stealth and other capabilities will be important. “By the time we get to the 2030s, we will have improved stealth to a degree, but our adversaries will have improved their kill chain to the extent where the F-35 may not have the technological edge it does now,” he said. “I think stealth is going to have to be made as effective as possible against threat that are not just going to be focused on the X band as they are now.

“Stealth currently works well in the X band, but doesn’t work as well in the lower frequencies,” he added. “At the moment the lower the radar frequency, the less effective it is at targeting – you can detect something but it can’t necessarily track it with enough fidelity to target it and build a kill chain. So while our adversaries increasingly push down in frequency range, the use of enhanced computing capabilities and other sensors will make those radars more effective. For them, that’s the next step.”

Our adversaries will have improved their kill chain.

Dr Davis says the future application of low observability will need to counter the ability to build a kill chain with lower frequency radars, but notes this will not be achieved just through the adoption of newer and better materials and shaping.

“I wonder how much further we can go before we reach a dead end in materials and shaping,” he said. “So will it be a combination of improved stealth, combined with more advanced electronic warfare capabilities, and perhaps defensive systems such as missiles or directed energy weapons? Speed will also play a role to ensure you are in a threat area for a minimum amount of time as possible.”

Recent concepts have resurrected the requirement of greater range for any next generation air combat aircraft in order to keep forward bases, aircraft carriers and air-to-air refueling aircraft away from expanding anti access, area denial (A2AD) threats such as the layered defences being built by China around its coastline.

“I think that everyone in this business is increasingly realising that short-range platforms such as the F-35 are becoming less useful in an era of A2AD,” said Dr Davis. “I think the US is now looking at something that could escort a B-2 or a B-21 into a contested airspace, so it would need considerably longer range in the region of 1500-2000nm (2800-3700km).”

And it is here when the value debate of unmanned over manned platforms begins to liven up, with analysts asking if it is practical to have a pilot in the cockpit of a fighter platform escorting B-21s on penetrating missions, or might it be better to have an unmanned system that can fly in effect as an unmanned wingman.

“Of course, the prospect of unmanned air-to-air combat raises all sorts of legal and ethical issues for us to wrestle with, because you won’t be able to rely on data-links in a high intensity combat situation, so you now effectively need to have lethal autonomous weapons,” says Dr Davis. “The UCAS will need to make a decision about what to shoot down. But as western liberal democracies, we have to make decisions that are in line with our value systems and our recognition of ethical and legal restraints, which many of our adversaries may not. That in itself may be justification for keeping a man in the cockpit.”

As for the timing, based on the nearly 30 year life of just the acquisition part of AIR6000, RAAF planners may need to start considering a possible replacement not long after the last F-35 enters service.

“It would be very easy to talk about a 6th gen platform that’s stealthier and faster and more agile than an F-35, but the last thing we want is another 20 to 30 year program that’s going to cost billions of dollars, and by the time it gets operational the enemy has had 20 to 30 years to counter it,” says Dr Davis. “That’s why we need to be thinking about this in the 2020s, and we need to be thinking about not just technology, but also a concept of operations and strategy. The US will be looking at penetrating counter air, next generation air dominance, and unmanned systems will be much more mature by then, so really, Australia should be getting in line and synchronised with the US as early as possible.”

HI-LO MIX?

If additional F-35s are acquired under Phase 2C, then the RAAF will for the first time in its history have a single-type air combat fleet. With the retirement of the F-111 in 2010, the RAAF effectively gave up the long-range strike capability it had operated since WW2, despite the adoption of stand-off missiles such as the JASSM and the addition of the KC-30 tanker fleet.

Malcolm Davis warns that moving to a single type fleet could influence RAAF force planning for many decades to come. “If we stick with this current ‘fighter mindset’, then we risk pushing ourselves down a narrow path where the follow on to the F-35 will just be another fighter,” he said. “That then raises all sorts of questions about how that aircraft will perform in contested airspace in an A2AD environment.

It’s not just about the technology, it’s a mindset about how airpower looks in the future.

“It’s not just about the technology, it’s a mindset about how airpower looks in the future, and whether Australia is prepared to think outside the box instead of just replacing the F-35 with another fighter,” he added. “That of course then gets into the geopolitical and strategic environments, and what threats we are going to be facing in the 2030s and how we want to project airpower into regions such as the South China Sea.”

Bombers certainly have persistence and flexibility that fighter sized aircraft paired with tankers cannot hope to match, so perhaps Australia should look to have a mature conversation about joining on to the tail end of the B-21 program.