On the upswing?

Within this industry of peaks and troughs, a career can be determined by a birth date and whether one steps onto the roundabout at just the right time. Additionally, airline recruitment often appears to be reactive. They can foresee that the wave is coming but they need the sea spray to be hitting them before they spend precious dollars on attaining new pilots and staff. The problem is that recruitment and training come with a significant lead time, not to mention the internal promotions and movements across different fleets.

Now there is talk of training slots and some airlines are venturing down the cadet path once more. However, this all takes time and the steps between an interview and becoming an operational pilot can be substantial as once empty simulator schedules are filled to the brim for 24 hours of every day. Still, no one will ever complain about a surge, for the dry spells are far more confronting.

This last lean period has been particularly sparse. Not only did recruitment cease in major airlines, but airlines recorded huge losses to further dampen the mood. And while some reports may have had an element of spin and accounting complexities that lose the layman, there was no denying that it was a period of paring down in just about every area. High fuel costs contributed further to the tough times just when the industry did not need it.

Unfortunately, the bad times flow downhill. For all of the gloom at the major airline level, the scene was no brighter for supporting infrastructure and those that depend upon aviation. As one steps down the tiers, the regionals found the going tough too and general aviation airports were all but silent but for the sounds of other industries using their real estate.

At a flight school level, it has been very difficult. Rising costs and a slowing customer base have spelt the end for many private flying schools while the intakes at established full-time academies have also been a shadow of the peak times. Interestingly, these are the very years that pilots should probably have been training in order to be qualified when the industry turns a corner. In many ways it is similar to entering the real estate market in a slump, or the stock-market after a crash – buy in during the low times. That being said, it is a brave student who commits many thousands of dollars into a career on the hope that the good times lie ahead.

So should the murmurs and rumours prove to have substance, what then? One would imagine that there are a number of airline cadets still in waiting from courses that never resulted in full-time employment. There would be very thick ‘hold files’, albeit covered in dust and in dire need of updating. The pool of high-time pilots operating in regional airlines and substantial general aviation jobs should be relatively plentiful, although the issue of lead-time, recruitment and training schedules will undoubtedly still be present. Again, one must feel somewhat for the regional airlines.

Whenever a boom has taken place previously, their ranks have been ripe for the picking by major airlines. Highly experienced pilots who have operated in a challenging environment with multi-crew exposure are always ideal candidates. When movement occurs in the major airlines the manpower issues spread right across the industry and have training departments scrambling for answers and suitable people, both as candidates and trainers. It’s really nothing new.

And then at some point it will slow down again. Training will taper off, fleets will stabilise and seniority lists will almost be set in stone as the next dark aviation winter approaches. The music will stop and each and every participant will hang on tightly to the chair that they find themselves seated in. Reminiscences of the good times will be common and the old hands will once again lament the boom or bust of their world. However, that time is still in the future – the distant future? Who knows? For the moment, the positivity of growth is very welcome. It boosts morale and spurs on enthusiasm where pessimism previously lived. Flightdecks become happier places and those who have loitered in the limbo of a hold file now have hope. Growth is good for all concerned and one can only hope that the approaching wave is substantial enough to sweep the industry along and create positive movement for one and all. When that happens, the simulators will be burning the midnight oil and candidates will be feverishly studying the finer points of a new aircraft type. Soon they will be at the runway’s end with the thrust levers set to be advanced. Then we will know for sure that the upswing has arrived.

Unfortunately, the bad times flow downhill.