What’s on the list?

The White Paper is designed to lay out an acquisition and force posture strategy for the next decade based on potential geopolitical threats, or coalition and allied responsibilities. But it should be noted that White Papers frequently outlive the governments that formulated them, and rarely take into account global financial crises.

First to the additional KC-30s. In the wake of successful AUSMIN meetings with his US counterpart, Senator Johnston hosted Canberra press gallery and major electronic media on a KC-30 ride from Canberra to visit Exercise Pitch Black in Darwin on August 13. During an interview onboard the KC-30, Senator Johnston speculated that an additional two KC-30s may be on the agenda for the next White Paper.

It makes sense – the KC-30 program is coming good, the boom and pod hardware and software remediation development is wrapping up, a new software load is expected to fix many of the minor idiosyncrasies and work-arounds of the original design, and the aircraft has proved its strategic reach in recent ALS taskings to the US and Europe, and on long-endurance tanking missions in Australia.

Another major item sure to appear at the back end of the next White Paper will be Phase 2C of the AIR 6000 project to possibly replace the 24 Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets of the RAAF’s 1SQN. The F/A-18Fs were acquired as a decade-long bridging air combat capability in 2010 to cover the capability gap between the retirement of the F-111 and the F-35A achieving full operational capability.

But ongoing delays to the F-35 have seen the Super Hornets extended out to at least 16 years, as things currently stand, and thus a greater commitment to upgrades, sustainment and maintenance by the ADF will be required. This investment in turn will possibly mean the Super Hornets will be retained for close to a full life-of-type of 20 or more years in order to realise a return on the investment which by that time will be close to $8 billion.

So Phase 2C could go one of three ways – the first is the long-planned third tranche of 28 F-35As to give an additional operational squadron and a total fleet of 100; the retention of the Super Hornets and a possible upgrade with some of the elements proposed by Boeing and possibly the US Navy on the Advanced Super Hornet concept; or the growing momentum behind

Whether the White Paper supports an operational or geopolitical requirement for the F-35B is another matter.

the possible acquisition of F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing version of the JSF for employment aboard the RAN’s new Canberra class LHDs.

The F-35B idea is being driven hard by government, despite resistance from Navy and Air Force leadership. Recent articles published in Australian Aviation and other publications have explored the engineering and operational implications of operating F-35Bs from the LHDs, and all have concluded that, given the political will and sufficient funding, it can be done. Whether the White Paper supports an operational or geopolitical requirement for the F-35B is another matter – my bet is on upgrading the Super Hornets or buying the third tranche of F-35As.

A project also likely to appear in future DCPs will be one to replace the ALQ-99 jammer pods being acquired for the EA-18G Growlers with the next generation jammer (NGJ) currently under development by Raytheon for the US Navy. Once the NGJ enters service from about 2019, it will quickly replace the ALQ-99 which will start to experience obsolescence and supportability issues. With the RAAF keen to maintain its Growlers (and Supers) in as common a configuration with the US Navy as possible, the acquisition of NGJ pods will likely be a high-priority requirement.

And while it is still early days for the AIR 8000 Phase 2 C-27J program, perhaps a ‘hail-Mary’ speculation may be a nascent requirement for the AC‑27J Praetorian gunship version of the aircraft. Currently under development by ATK for the Italian air force, the AC-27J features a 40mm gun which fires through a modified left side rear door, ammunition and a fire control system all mounted on a removable pallet. Other modifications include an EO/IR turret permanently mounted under the nose and associated displays and integration wiring for the gun pallet.

There is believed to be much interest in the AC-27J within the RAAF – such a capability would offer a high value niche capability for coalition operations such as those currently being conducted against Islamic State forces in northern Iraq, or in other counter insurgency type roles, as well as offering an armed ISR capability ideal for sustained support of force troops in close contact.

There will certainly be plenty of competing priorities.