Fall Out

And as battles raged across the globe more and more countries are now off limits.

In July the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) widened the overfly warnings to eastern Ukraine, Kenya and Ethiopia as countriesaround the world reassess flight operations over war zones.

The FAA now lists 14 countries with bans or partial warnings for commercial aircraft. Two with the highest risk are Afghanistan and Iraq which lie in the path of many flights between Asia and Europe.

According to the FAA, “due to ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks in Afghanistan, the FAA warns that civil aircraft could be damaged by small-arms fire, rocket fire or attacks using man-portable air defence systems. ” However, there is no evidence yet that insurgents have missile systems capable of bringing down a high-flying aircraft at 33,000ft.

Iraq has returned to hot spot status and the FAA initially prohibited flight operations at or below 22,000ft due to the threat of shorter-range missiles and small arms fire. It later increased that to 30,000ft. Then on August 9 itissued a NOTAM banning all US airlines overflying Iraq after the US launched air strikes on ISIS rebels. On August 9 Turkish Airlines, incredibly, was still overflying Iraq, directly over Mosul, despite ongoing US air strikes.

For Syria the FAA states that it discourages flight operations over that war-torn country, noting, “no part of Syria should be considered immune from violence. ” US authorities have also warned about Libya and say that it prohibits flight operations within the Tripoli Flight Information Region, which includes small northern sections of Niger and Chad in addition to Libya.

Ethiopia has also made the banned list with the FAA warning that flight operations are prohibited in northern Ethiopian airspace. It also cautions that Ethiopian forces may fire upon aircraft crossing into Ethiopian airspace from north-eastern Kenya.

On Kenya the FAA adds that “recent, credible information indicates a potential near-term terrorist attack against US and Western interests in Kenya,” warning against attacks using man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS).

While not on the FAA banned list, Nigeria and the Central African Republic are listed as war zones with ongoing conflicts.

Other African countries where conflicts rage are South Sudan, Mali and Yemen.

And the deteriorating situation in Egypt has led the FAA to ban flights below 26,000ft over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

Responding to the outrage of the MH17 tragedy the International Civil Aviation Organization has set up a special task force of state and industry experts to greatly enhance the dissemination and sharing of critical security information to protect civilian aircraft. In a special meeting in Montreal on July 29 ICAO, IATA, Airports Council International (ACI) and the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO) expressed their strong condemnation of the use of weapons against civil aviation.

In a joint statement after the meeting at ICAO headquarters the four organisations said that the downing of Malaysia Airlines was unacceptable.

“Our organisations wish to convey our deepest condolences to the families of the passengers and crew who lost their lives in this tragic event. While aviation is the safest form of transport, the MH17 incident has raised troubling concerns with respect to civilian aircraft operating to, from and over conflict zones,” a joint statement said. The meeting resolved to urgently review the issues and potential responses to be pursued.

“As a first step, states have been reminded by ICAO of their responsibilities to address any potential risks to civil aviation in their airspace…We recognise the essential need for information and intelligence that might affect the safety of our passengers and crew. This is a highly complex and politically sensitive area of international coordination, involving not only civil aviation regulations and procedures but also state national security and intelligence gathering activities,” said the joint statement.

All parties to the discussion agreed that ICAO now has an important role to play in working as urgently as possible with its member states, in co-ordination with the aviation industry and other bodies within the United Nations, to ensure the right information reaches the right people at the right time.

MH17 has raised troubling concerns with respect to civilian aircraft operating to, from and over conflict zones.

Moving forward, ICAO with support of its industry partners will:

»» Immediately establish a senior-level task force composed of state and industry experts to address the civil aviation and national security aspects of this challenge, in particular how information can be effectively collected and disseminated.

»» Submit the task force findings as urgently as possible to a special meeting of the ICAO Council for action.

Industry has called for ICAO to also address:

»» Fail-safe channels for essential threat information to be made available to civil aviation authorities and industry.

»» The need to incorporate into international law, through appropriate UN frameworks,measures to govern the design, manufacture and deployment of modern anti-aircraft weaponry.

ICAO is convening a high-level safety conference with all of its 191 member states in February 2015.

The joint statement concluded that industry and governments stand united and committed to ensuring the safety and security of the global air transport system and its users.

The joint industry action came after calls from Emirates president Tim Clark for a summit to ensure security information was made available to airlines.

After the joint meeting IATA’s director general and CEO Tony Tyler said that the tragic shooting down of MH17 was an attack on the whole air transport industry.

“The world’s airlines are angry. Civil aircraft are instruments of peace. They should not be the target of weapons of war. That is enshrined in international law through the Chicago Convention,” said Tyler.

“We are asking ICAO to address two critical tasks. The first, and most urgent, is to ensure that governments provide airlines with better information with which to make risk assessments of the various threats they may face. The second is equally important but comes with a longer time frame. We will find ways through international law that will oblige governments to better control weapons which have the capability to pose a danger to civil aviation. Achieving these will make our safe industry even safer,” said Tyler. He added that clear, accurate and timely information on risks is critical.

“We were told that flights traversing Ukraine’s territory at above 32,000ft would not be in harm’s way. We now know how wrong that guidance was. It is essential that airlines receive clear guidance regarding threats to their passengers, crew and aircraft. Such information must be accessible in an authoritative, accurate, consistent, and unequivocal way. This is the responsibility of states. There can be no excuses. Even sensitive information can be sanitised and still remain operationally relevant,” he said.

Tyler also noted that IATA stands willing to assist with the dissemination of such information.

Responding to the joint meeting in July the Flight Safety Foundation president and CEO Jon Beattycommended ICAO and industry colleagues in exercising leadership in condemning the shoot-down and forming a task force to urgently analyse and recommend changes to close gaps.

“Where states may not be able either to know the threat or control the safety or their airspace, we still need to find ways for operators to get accurate threat information and implement mitigation measures to safeguard the travelling public,” said Beatty.

“We also need to look at the broader issues regarding threats posed by both MANPADS and long-range missiles, particularly when controlled by non-state actors. ” The first meeting of the Task Force on Risks to civil aviation arising from Conflict Zones (TF RCZ) was to be held from August 14 to 15 at ICAO Headquarters in Montréal, Canada.

There is no reason to “hand terror a prize” by cancelling flights.

File imageBut the scale of the problem was highlighted with the FAA no-fly order for Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport for 24 hours, then 48 hours, in late July after a rocket hit a mere mile from the airport. The FAA issued a NOTAM on July 22 informing US airlines that they are prohibited from flying to or from Ben Gurion Airport.

The NOTAM applied to US operators, and had no authority over foreign airlines operating to or from the airport. The international response was mixed with some avoiding the airport, others continuing to fly, while the Israel tourist authority said it was safe.

The European Aviation Safety Agency “strongly” recommended that airlines refrain from flying to Tel Aviv and Air France and Lufthansa cancelled flights but British Airways continued to operate.

Delta Airlines cancelled flights before the FAA ban with CEO Richard Anderson saying that “we have a much higher duty of care, and we’ve got to make the rightdecisions for the flight attendants, customers and pilots on our flights. ” However Israel’s Ministry of Transport said the airport was safe and added that there is no reason to “hand terror a prize” by cancelling flights.

After calling for a summit, Emirates president Clark quickly added that Emirates flights would be re-routed away from another trouble spot, Iraq. He told media that he had taken action because he was no longer “comfortable” with flights flying over ISIS-held territory in Iraq. “This is a political animal but the fact of the matter is MH17 changed everything, and that was very nearly in European airspace,” he told The Times.

“We cannot continue to say, ‘Well it’s a political thing’. We have to do something. We have to take the bull by the horns. ” Separately Clark told the BBC that “traditionally” airlines have been able to manage conflicts. “Tripoli and Kabul were attacked, Karachi was attacked and we have protocols and contingencies and procedures to deal with this,” he said. “Now [after MH17] I think there will have to be new protocols and it will be up to ICAO and IATA and the aviation community to sort out what the protocols have to be. ” But he dismissed the idea that airlines should be equipped with anti-missile devices. “Some people say planes should be armed with counter devices. That will go absolutely nowhere. If we can’t operate aircraft in a free and unencumbered manner without the threat of being taken down, then we shouldn’t be operating at all. ” Clark also cautioned that ICAO can’t close airspace, but can issue advisories and “they may be a little more active. National regulators may start getting involved a little more than they have. They have perhaps left airlines to their own devices. ” On the shoot-down of MH17 Clark told the BBC he was not aware of any warnings from outside the industry about the escalating threat in Ukraine which would have changed the way airlines think about ground-based conflicts. “Yes, the airline industry was aware there was shooting at a low level and assumed these were low-grade surface-to-air weapons,” he said. “This was wrong as we now know. Nobody in their wildest dreams thought anybody could have done such a calculating act of mass murder. ” Clark’s decision to avoid Iraq brought into sharp focus the different positions of airlines such as Qantas, its alliance partner. Initially the Australian airline – like most airlines – said it was safe and continued to fly over Iraq rather than overfly Iran, but media pressure in Australia was significant and embarrassing for the airline.

However, after the FAA increased the altitude of the threat and the French issued warnings about the ISIS rebels’ weaponry, the airline immediately changed tack.

Qantas sources its security information from five different agencies and sometimes gets updates hourly.

While MH17 is an unprecedented act of murder in the present day, shooting down of commercial airliners is not new. Tragically 15 commercial airliners have been shot down since 1954 claiming the lives of 1,263 passengers and crew.

The worst before MH17 was the Iran Air A300 with 290 aboard which was shot down by the US Navy in 1988 when the Iran Air crew ignored warnings.

Most aircraft that have beendowned were by surface-to-air missiles, but four have been shot down by fighter aircraft.

First major loss after World War 2 was a Cathay Pacific DC-4 which was shot down by Chinese fighters off Hainan Island in 1954 killing the 10 aboard. Another air-to-air shoot-down occurred a year later when an El Al Constellation with 58 aboard strayed into Bulgarian airspace and was downed by two fighters.

In February 1973 a combination of bad weather and equipment failure led the regular Libyan Airlines Flight 114 between Tripoli in Libya to Cairo into Israeli-controlled airspace over the Sinai Peninsula. It was intercepted by two Israeli F-4 Phantom fighters which directed it to land. When the Libyan crew refused and turned away the 727 was shot down. Only five of the 113 on board people survived.

Then in 1983 a Russian Su-15 fighter shot down a Korean Air Lines 747 with 269 aboard which strayed into its airspace during the Cold War.

The first surface-to-air missile shoot-down occurred in 1962 when a Russian Aeroflot Tu-104 with 84 aboard was destroyed by accident by the Russian army. Between September 1978 and February 1979 two Air Rhodesia Vickers Viscounts were shot down over Zimbabwe killing all 38 and 59 aboard. And in September 1993 a Transair Tupolev Tu‑134 with 27 aboard and a Georgian Airways Tupolev Tu‑154B with 108 were shot down over Georgia.

Aside from MH17 the two most controversial shoot-downs were the Korean Air Lines and Iran Air disasters.

On September 1 1983 Korean Air Lines Flight 007was flying from New York to Seoul, via Anchorage, carrying 269 people. After a fuel stop in Alaska, it is understood that an incorrect setting on the aircraft autopilot led it to cross into Soviet airspace. After being tracked by a Russian Su-15, it was targeted, shot down and destroyed.

On July 3 1988 Iran Air Flight 655, an Airbus A300, was en route from Tehran to Dubai, when it was shot down by a surface-to-air missile fired from the US Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes. All 290 on board, including 66 children and 16 crew, died.

The Iranian government claimed the Vincennes negligently shot down the Airbus. However the USS Vincennes issued seven challenges on the Military Air Distress (MAD) frequency 243 MHz and three on the IAD (International Air Defence) radio frequency which the Iran flight was suppose to monitor. It did not respond and, mistaken for an Iranian air force F-14, was shot down.

But authorities and airlines are now responding and once again terrorism has changed aviation forever.