God of the seas

Emblazoned with a striking pink sinking submarine logo on its tail, the aircraft is known as ‘T-6’, the last of six test and evaluation aircraft delivered to the Navy by Boeing.

And on March 4 2012, Boeing officially delivered the first of 13 P-8A Poseidon production aircraft to the USN in the low-rate initial production contract awarded in 2011.

Australia’s present maritime patrol and response aircraft, the AP-3C Orions, are the quiet achievers of the RAAF. With 19 flying in domestic, regional and operational maritime intelligence, surveillance reconnaissance and response sorties, the fleet has been one of the most consistent and impressive performers since entering service in 1968.

Project AIR 7000 will replace the Orion with a combination of manned and unmanned systems. Worth $4.5-6 billion, it’s widely expected to follow the course of the USN’s Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) program, which has selected the Boeing P-8A Poseidon and a marinised variant of the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk designated MQ-4C, a high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) UAS.

Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) is an increasing trend in naval aviation so it remains to be seen whether the God of the Sea can match the achievements of the humble Hunter.

The P-8A Poseidon is the obvious frontrunner to replace the Orion under AIR 7000, with the USN already developing the aircraft for its manned BAMS platform. The Australian government granted first pass approval for Defence’s participation in the USN’s Spiral 1 (Baseline) P-8 development program in 2007, providing about $150 million in June 2007.

In late 2011, the project received intermediate pass approval to expand that co-operation, including the establishment of a production, sustainment and follow-on development Memorandum of Understanding worth almost $100 million for activities to be conducted up to second pass.

The P-8 platform’s first international customer was the Indian Navy, set to acquire eight aircraft with options on four more. The Royal Air Force reportedly is considering the P-8A to replace the BAE Systems Nimrod MRA4 in the maritime patrol and attack role. The MRA4 was cancelled in 2010 in the wake of the UK Government’s Strategic Defence and Security Review.

Closer to home, the United States Air Force reportedly was interested in the platform as a replacement for the E-8 JSTARS ground surveillance package, particularly before the platform’s engine problems were resolved.

The only other competitive new-technology option is the Kawasaki P-1, being developed by the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force but government regulations restrict the export of defence equipment.

The AP-3C fleet was upgraded in the 1990s under the AIR 5276 Sea Sentinel program, aiming to ensure it remained operationally viable until a planned withdrawal from service in 2018. Upgrades included a new Elta radar and infrared system, a modern magnetic anomaly detector and an exceptionally capable signals and electronic intelligence package.

It is believed Defence will delay the withdrawal of one or two of the AP-3C Orion fleet to maintain the signals and electronic intelligence capabilities.

The P-8 program seemingly has cruised through its development schedule, in part due to the use of the next-generation Boeing 737 commercial airliner as the base platform. The P-8A is a hybrid 737, combining the fuselage of the -800 with the structurally heavier wings of the -900.

Boeing has taken advantage of an industry-first in-line production process, making unique, in-sequence modifications to the P-8 aircraft during fabrication and assembly rather than afterwards.

The use of commercial technologies allows operators to take advantage of platform reliability, commercial-off-the-shelf spares and a wealth of existing knowledge in industry for through-life support. The main differences between the commercial and military airframes is the addition of a weapons bay aft of the wing box and the air-to-air refuelling boom at the top of the fuselage just aft of the cockpit.

Speaking at a publicity event in mid-2011, then-Boeing P-8 manger James Detwiler said the platform was a leap forward in technology: “The legacy aircraft that [the P-8] is replacing are essentially 50-year-old technology — slower, less capable. [The P-8] can fly much higher, much faster and carry the latest generation of sensors.”

But Mr Detwiler’s comments seem to ignore the nature of maritime patrol and response warfare. An industry source familiar with the P-8 program told Australian Aviation recently the P-8 would not be as capable as its predecessor in one of its key roles, saying: “The essence of ASW is three things: get low, get slow, and loiter. With the P-8, pick two.”

The P-8A is powered by two CFM56-7B turbofan engines, each generating 27,000lb, compared with the P-3’s four Allison T56-A-14 turboprops, each generating 4,600shp (3,700kW).

For an aircraft of similar dimensions, the P-8 has a higher cruise speed, higher maximum altitude, significantly longer range and longer time on station than the P-3, all of which are good comparisons of aircraft capability. The end result is a faster, more capable aircraft but potentially a less capable platform for ASW operations.

P-3 operators in the US and Australia have commented prolifically on the P-8’s lack of capacity to “get low, get slow, and loiter”, due mainly to the engines, which could be overly powered for the role. One strength of the P-3 was the ability to shut down two of the engines – increasing endurance for extended overwater operations.

Operators say the same commercial turbofan technology that allows the P-8 to operate with two engines rather than four inhibits the platform in extremely low-altitude ASW actions like magnetic anomaly detection.

But they add that rather than being a capability trade-off, the use of technology upgrades indicates a comprehensive difference in the concept of operations (CONOPS) for the maritime patrol aircraft – and one which now includes much more than the traditional “blue water” role.

The P-8A’s sensor package will include an upgraded APS-137D(V) 5 maritime surveillance radar and signals intelligence system developed by Raytheon and redesignated the AN/APY-10 maritime, littoral and overland surveillance radar.

The system provides synthetic aperture radar and inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) modes for imaging, detection, and classification of ships and other targets as well as a periscope detection mode and GPS navigation capability. The radar has been redesigned again for export, which Raytheon says offers “comparable radar performance”.

Unlike the AP-3C, the P-8 will not be fitted with a magnetic anomaly detector, under a new anti-submarine warfare CONOPS that focusses on detection, tracking and strike from high-altitude, achieved partly through new weapons systems.

The Mk 54 MAKO is the standard in anti-submarine torpedoes in use in the USN and RAN. Outfitted on a number of airborne ASW platforms including the P-3, the Mk 54 has to be deployed from low altitude. Enter Lockheed Martin’s High Altitude ASW Weapons Concept, a self-contained wing adaptor the enables the Mk 54 torpedo to be launched from about 20,000ft or even at standoff ranges. The same kit is being explored as an option for sonobouy deployment.

As well as the Mk 54 and JDAM, the P-8 is expected to be fitted with the Standoff Land Attack Missile, increasing its ability to strike against land or sea-based targets. The inclusion of a standoff missile again points to a evolved CONOPS aimed at making the aircraft more capable of engaging adversaries, at least in uncontested airspace.

The evolved CONOPS is aimed at the wider role of the replacement MPA. Early in the P-8 program, then program manager for the Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft Jack Zerr described the aircraft as, “a bit of JSTARS, a little bit of AWACS and a little bit of MC2A (Multirole Command and Control), but with the added ability to go and kill a submarine”.

Since 2003, Australian AP-3Cs operational responsibilities have included a continuous deployment to the Middle East, chalking up 20,000 hours of operational missions by August last year over nine consecutive years in overland and maritime environments. At that time, Air Component Commander Group Captain Paul Nicholas noted the evolution of the mission priorities, from crew and airframe fatiguing low-altitude runs to medium to high altitude stand-off reconnaissance.

“The combined efforts of the AP-3Cs and the wider RAAF team have enabled the Air Component to support coalition land operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and maritime operations in the Arabian Sea and surrounding maritime areas of the Middle East,” GPCAPT Nicholas said.

“Our intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions were initially focussed on maritime missions in the Arabian Gulf region and soon expanded to overland missions in support of the stabilisation of Iraq.

“Today, our commitment extends from Afghanistan in support of the International Security Assistance Force to the Indian Ocean off East Africa in support of maritime security and counter-piracy operations.”

The RAAF estimates 70 per cent of Orion sorties in the Middle East area of operations are now conducted overland in support of ground forces. The Orions transmit real-time surveillance to commanders on the ground and boost situational awareness and decision-making resources.

They also have played a key role in force protection, using their comprehensive sensor package in detecting of improvised explosive devices.

New technologies in sensors and platform hardware, as well as the evolved CONOPS, will work together to foster a new platform more focussed on multipurpose surveillance function than niche maritime patrol and response.

Central to the USN BAMS program and to future Australian maritime intelligence, surveillance reconnaissance and response capability is the unmanned component. While the US is planning to acquire 117 P-8s to replace about 130 P-3s, Australia plans to buy only between eight and 10 P-8s to replace 19 Orions.

The remainder of the MSIRR capability will comprise “up to seven” of a yet-to-be-determined unmanned system — probably a choice between the marinised Northrop Grumman Global Hawk or the General Atomics/Lockheed Martin maritime variant of the Predator B, in service with the US Department of Homeland Security, Customs & Border Protection.

The intention is to boost the range and capacity of maritime patrol and surveillance while cutting back on personnel and resource consumption. Taking the example of the USN BAMS UAS, the MQ-4C, this will be easily achieved.

The MQ-4C has a 27 hour-plus endurance and a sensor payload of almost 1,500 kilograms. The sensor suite includes a full motion video electro-optical infrared camera, an automatic ship identification system and a 360-degree imaging maritime surveillance radar.

Essentially, the unmanned component will constitute the same features as the manned MSIRR, without the all-important “Response”.

The Global Hawk’s most recent success story came from the international crisis following the March 2011 Japanese tsunami and the resulting Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant meltdown. The United States Air Force deployed a Global Hawk from Anderson Air Force Base in Guam to survey the damage and provide relief and recovery assistance to the Japanese government.

One industry source said the pilotless Global Hawk remained on station for such an extended period of time and flew so close that on its return from the operation, it required decontamination checks.

However, all these changes mean nothing if the dual-capability provided by the P-8A and UAS combination cannot achieve the same outcomes as the Orion. The nature of conflict is changing and operators who ignores these changes do so at their own peril.

Threats now come from a wider array of sources, many unconventional and asymmetric in nature, and require newer forms of technology to achieve success.

This is not to say conventional threats should be ignored. A look at the geopolitics of the Asia Pacific illustrates the increasing trend towards defence spending from developing states and demonstrates the ongoing requirement for MSIRR, a concept the P-8A program seems to have taken into consideration.

The Poseidon is intended to be a more capable platform than the P-3 Orion with the ability to fulfil traditional and non-traditional detection, tracking and response roles — and with the agility to evolve further into the future.

The Poseidon already has a broad spiral development strategy in place for future development. While the initial, baseline P-8As will be at least as capable as the USN’s Spiral 2 P-3Cs, the Spiral 2 Poseidon, expected in 2015-16, will include an integrated broadcast system, an automatic identificationsSystem and air rapid capability insertion developments.

The modern Australian Defence Organisation, or at least those in Capability Development and the DMO, are averse to risk and will rightly go out of their way to avoid a capability gap or the type of block obsolescence seen previously.

The P-8 allows the RAAF to maintain a maritime patrol aircraft capability underpinned by US Navy operation and whose ongoing growth and support is ensured by a collaborative incremental development program.

Having these systems in place to avoid a capability gap or block obsolescence also will help the RAAF avoid the need for a skills retention initiative. The RAF is committed to sending over 30 former Nimrod operators to take part in Project Seedcorn, involving them with allied maritime patrol aircraft programs to ensure maintenance of operational knowledge and skills.

While AIR 7000 Ph. 2B has yet to achieve second pass approval, expected sometime between 2013-14 and 2015-16, there are a distinct lack of alternative options to fill the maritime patrol aircraft requirement.

Given the heavy operational commitments of the RAAF’s Orion 10 and 11 Squadrons, exploring alternatives in lieu of the so far consistent and progressive development of the P-8A Poseidon could mean a significant capability gap as Defence approaches the 2018 planned withdrawal date for the stalwart Hunters.