Five ports where Virgin ATRs could land

Tamworth and Emerald generate 120,000 passenger movements a year, Armidale and Bundaberg 130,000 and Gladstone 200,000. Tamworth and Emerald previously had turboprop and F28 services, and Gladstone was a launch port in 1998 for the Flight West Fokker 100 services. All five seem logical candidates for Virgin Blue services.

Gladstone, a key port, reportedly failed to attract Virgin E-Jet services, allowing an opportunistic Strategic Airlines to enter the Brisbane-Gladstone market with its two-class (eight business, 142 economy class) A320s. Due to commence Gladstone services on April 18, Strategic is offering 150,000 seats per annum on the route.

Many predict that is too much capacity, but competition often sees lower fares increasing loads by up to 50 per cent.

Port Macquarie, where Virgin E-Jets and Qantas Dash 8s compete, is a good example – its passenger numbers have doubled to 200,000 a year.

And official passenger numbers don’t take into account ‘hidden’ passengers using some ports on FIFO charters, such as Fokker 100s, Saab 340s and Metros, plus smaller twins flying to Emerald; Skytrans’ FIFO operation to nearby Clermont (with up to four Dash 8 flights daily); and flights to other towns nearby which take many passengers who previously would have flown into Emerald. And mixed FIFO/ RPT flights are common.

Passengers liked the smaller ATR 42 briefly introduced in 1986 by Air Queensland (nee Bush Pilots) in a 32in pitch 42- seat configuration – with less noise and vibration than competing F27s and Dash 8-100s plus two flight attendants (the 1:36 flight attendant rule was then rigidly enforced) – proved popular. But Australian Airlines standardised on Dash 8s, and today QantasLink Dash 8 Q300s and Q400s predominate.

There is endless debate over the relative merits of the ATR 72 and the Q400. The latter’s speed edge is undisputed, but one other interesting difference exists. The ATR is fitted with a prop brake, enabling number 2 engine to be run on the ground in ‘Hotel Mode’ as an APU. Refuellers would not refuel the Air Queensland aircraft and loaders refused to work the right door with this engine running. The Department of Civil Aviation quickly mandated that one pilot needed to be in a cockpit seat while in Hotel Mode, leaving only one to preflight the aircraft and complete load/fuel/ flightplan paperwork, which slowed turnarounds. Competing Dash 8s have APUs.

The ATR 72’s capacity raises questions about frequency and patterns, with the Q400 pattern Qantas introduced at Port Lincoln perhaps offering a pointer. QantasLink commenced with a very early departure from Port Lincoln for Adelaide after an overnight stop – something Emerald has never had and which Strategic is not providing at Gladstone.

Three return flights daily on Sydney-Tamworth, Sydney- Armidale, Brisbane-Bundaberg, Brisbane-Gladstone and Brisbane-Emerald would be needed, generating 100,000+ seats a year, a similar capacity jump that QantasLink Q400s generated on Port Lincoln- Adelaide, and would hit incumbent QantasLink as it in turn hit Rex at Port Lincoln.

That could see many off peak flights withdrawn.

Overall five aircraft would be needed to provide this pattern (Sydney peak hour slots depending) at the five ports, leaving large blocks of idle ground time unless flown elsewhere in between.

Tamworth, Gladstone and Bundaberg airports are RPT jet capable and Emerald could easily be. Bar Strategic A320s to Gladstone there are no jets on these routes, and the Q400’s block time edge over the ATR 72 would be of little consequence except on the longest stage, Brisbane/Emerald, where the Q400 takes 85 minutes – ATR 72s would take about the same 105 mins as Dash 8-300s.

That five prosperous centres – with a catchment population of 240,000 – Gladstone facing minerals related population doubling, Emerald the centre of a rapidly expanding mining and rural area, the others not dependant on twitchy tourism, generating a creditable 700,000 passengers – haven’t had competition beggars local belief.

Competition might produce well over one million passengers a year, 500,000 seemingly up for grabs by Virgin Blue ATRs, feeding into the broader Virgin Blue network.

Incumbent Qantas, which has heavily invested in new Q300s and Q400s, would not give them up easily, but the routes seem as inviting to Virgin as was Port Lincoln to Qantas – and Gladstone to Strategic. n