A new state of affairs?

This idea was instantly opposed by Cairns but warmly received north of the Rockhampton- Longreach line where Townsville is closer than Brisbane.

It’s a hypothetical scenario at this point, but if fully adopted the effect on air operators and airports would be significant.

Approximately 700,000 people live north of a line running east to west through Shoalwater Bay. The main cities have diverse characteristics while all proclaiming very poor infrastructure and service delivery, despite the riches mining and (to a lesser extent) tourism earn.

Mackay has developed from a quiet sugar town, resort destination and Barrier Reef gateway to a bustling mine support city and is now the drive-in, drive-out capital of the north.

Townsville has solid defence, government, industry and mine support. Cairns is the northern service and administrative centre, and is suffering from unemployment highs as tourism has slowed. Its former 31 weekly flights to Japan have just risen back to 11 with Jetstar reinstating its Osaka services.

The area generates three of the nation’s 20 biggest air routes, with Brisbane-Cairns at 11th, Brisbane-Townsville 14th and Brisbane-Mackay 17th, all consistently running at 80-90 per cent load factors.

The nation’s next busiest intrastate route, Perth-Karratha, lifts 480,000 passengers each year – but that may similarly change. Some estimate 20 per cent of passengers on the above routes fly to and from Brisbane only out of necessity due to a lack of local support services, seeing the occasional use of widebodies on some routes.

The Queensland government may try and divert many of the affected Brisbane air passengers to Townsville onto its heavily subsidised rail services, but time rules and same day air return would win out.

It wouldn’t occur overnight and future growth may cushion the blow, but the big loser would be Brisbane Airport, dropping nearly 600,000 passengers per annum, while Townsville would lose maybe 200,000 Brisbane passengers but could pick up 350,000+ from Cairns, Mackay and Mt Isa for a net gain. About 200,000 Cairns-Brisbane, 150,000 Mackay-Brisbane, and 20,000 Mt Isa-Brisbane passengers would fly to Townsville in lieu. Up to 200,000 Townsville-Brisbane passengers would simply drive to get the services now available only in Brisbane by air. Townsville’s recently upgraded terminal would end up handling increased air movements which, with inevitable GA increases (it has over 20 resident operators) might see its movements come close to Darwin levels, which is the nation’s busiest joint user airport. Civil movements make up over 90 per cent of movements at both, seeing everything from small aircraft to fast military jets processed via complex local rules.

With no inter-city links between the three cities, Virgin Blue would lose heavily as its share of Mackay and Cairns to Brisbane passengers diverted to Townsville would have to fly Qantas, with Rex and Qantas fighting over Mt Isa-Townsville divertees.

Passengers lost by Qantas and Jetstar from Brisbane would simply go to Townsville by QantasLink Dash 8s, often paying higher yield fares than the jet services. Converted to existing turboprop equipment, Cairns-Townsville would need an additional 70 Dash 8-300/Q400s services weekly, Mackay-Townsville 60 more, with Rex and Qantas needing another 10 weekly flights on Mt Isa-Townsville.

Brisbane would drop around 80/100 flight weekly to the four northern cities unless future growth balanced the Townsville induced losses.

The move would present a once only golden opportunity for Rex to greatly expand its Townsville base and provide frequent Mackay and Cairns links. Given Saab 340s would be hard pushed to meet peak hour same day return loads, an opportunity could arise via a much closer Virgin Blue link – either codeshare or via Virgin Blue takeover – seeing Rex operate Virgin Blue owned ATRs on the heavier routes, if the rumours of Virgin buying ATRs in place of its Embraer E-170s turn out to be true.

A few days after the Townsville saga took wildly off, WA launched a very solid effort to make Karratha the ‘City of the North’, which has been quickly construed as the service centre of the Pilbara.

The Pilbara has only 50,000 residents with many in towns under 2000 linked by road, but the outcome could be similar to Townsville, seeing many who fly to Perth out of necessity redirected to Karratha.

Re-establishment of intrastate air links which were comprehensive in the F27/Twin Otter days might see this a clever scheme by Karratha, diverting the 30,000 or so Broome and Kimberley residents to much closer Karratha rather than Perth for essential services.

The bottom line in both cases is whether the services can be remotely delivered cheaply enough to be viable. Irrespective of whether any new states emerge, or which parts of aviation gain or lose, the idea has gained big legs on both sides of the nation’s north, and doesn’t look like going away. n