Qantas’s Shrinking Intl Marketshare

In 2009 that figure had contracted to just 21 per cent.

Even adding in Jetstar’s 7. 8 per cent share in 2009, the Qantas Group’s share of Australian international traffic has still fallen to just under 29 per cent.

There’s no line in the sand being drawn here.

That raises two interesting questions. Where would the Qantas share be without Jetstar? Even if you argued that Qantas has handed over a number of routes to Jetstar (particularly to Japan), those routes were either loss making or marginally profitable at best and so were markets Qantas would likely have pulled out of anyway.

But secondly, where did that marketshare go? In the 10 years from 1999 to 2009 many of the other major carriers serving Australia had relatively static marketshares – Air New Zealand’s 10 per cent in 1999 was down slightly to 8. 6 per cent in 2009, while Singapore Airlines’s 9. 6 per cent in 1999 was up slightly to 10 per cent in 2009.

Others have come (Pacific Blue, 5. 9 per cent in 2009) and gone (Ansett, 3. 5 per cent in 1999).

But the airline that has come from nowhere in that time is Emirates. It’s 7. 7 per cent share of Australian international traffic in 2009, while not entirely responsible for, fairly closely correlates with the Qantas Group’s 6. 4 percentage point fall since 1999.

Emirates’s rise and rise seems inexorable. For its financial year ended March 31 it posted a record net profit of around A$1. 3 billion, while for the same 12 month period, British Airways (which we look at from p34 of this issue) posted a loss of around A$531 million before tax, and Qantas says it will post a relatively modest pretax profit of around $300-400 million for the 2010 financial year. It is making money when most other airlines are not, and it is buying aeroplanes when most other airlines are not.

Certainly Emirates’s staggering buy of a further 32 Airbus A380s, taking its total buy to 90, must have sent shivers down the spines of airline management worldwide, including at Qantas. Most observers are scratching their heads wondering just where 90 A380s will be flown to, but Australia must figure prominently in Emirates’s plans for the Airbus double decker. Already one of Emirates’s three daily services into Sydney is operated by A380s, while the airline’s two other services are 777s, and Emirates has also announced all three of its daily services to Melbourne will soon be operated by 777‑300s. So if the airline wants to raise capacity into its two biggest Australian ports further, it’s inevitable that more A380s will be deployed here.

I’m not brave enough to forecast how different airlines’ Australian international passenger marketshares will evolve over the next decade, but if Emirates’s growth is sustainable, just where will its and Qantas’s marketshares be 10 years hence?

Thanks Paul!

After five years our photographer and production manager Paul Sadler is moving on for a career with Airservices Australia.

Paul has been a great member of our tight-knit team, and the magazine has certainly been the better for his excellent photography, design, website and IT skills.

We wish Paul well for his future career, and thank him for his efforts here. It’s been great fun, he’ll be missed!

Positions Vacant?

Paul is leaving some big boots to fill, but we think this creates a great opportunity. If you are proficient in photography, graphic and web design, have a good knowledge of and strong interest in the aviation industry, and are willing to join our small Canberra office, we’re keen to hear from you.

Plus, we also may soon have an opportunity for someone to join our editorial team. Again based in Canberra, this position would involve writing news and features articles for our magazine and website. This position may suit someone with aviation industry experience, or writing experience, or a young graduate, or a combination thereof! In both cases an enthusiastic and can-do attitude, and a passion for aviation and for working in publications, are essential! At the time of writing we hadn’t definitively decided how to fill these positions, so our requirements might change, but if you’re interested in either, please email a covering letter, resume and any examples of photography, design work and writing as appropriate to the attention of the ‘managing editor’ via mail@ australianaviation. com. au by July 14.