RAAF JSF buy approved – but only for one squadron

Under the $15 billion Project Air 6000, the RAAF has a requirement for up to 100 F-35s, and the announcement sees this planned buy split into at least three tranches. The first 14 aircraft will equip an initial training and testing unit; a second buy of at least 58 F-35As will then allow the RAAF to equip three combat squadrons; and possibly a final buy of 28 JSFs would replace the ‘bridging’ F/A-18F Super Hornets in the early to mid 2020s.

“Approval of this first batch of JSF aircraft is evidence of the Rudd government’s strong commitment to defence and our commitment to implementing the Defence White Paper,” Defence Minister Senator John Faulkner said in a statement. “By 2012, Defence will have much firmer cost estimates for the remaining aircraft and necessary support and enabling capabilities as part of the planned first multi-year buy that is expected to comprise over 1000 aircraft for the US, Australia and other partners. This will allow for much more effective planning of the final JSF acquisition in the context of the overall Defence Capability Plan.”

The RAAF currently operates 71 F/A-18A/B Hornets in three operational squadrons, 3SQN, and 77SQN at RAAF Base Williamtown and 75SQN at RAAF Base Tindal, and one operational conversion unit (2OCU) at Williamtown, while 24 F/A-18F Super Hornets have been acquired as a bridging capability between the retirement of the F-111C in late 2010 and the arrival of the final F-35As in the early 2020s, and will be operated by 1SQN and 6SQN at RAAF Base Amberley.

The first 14 F-35As will come from Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) lots beginning in Lot 6 and will be delivered from 2014, while the second and third tranches are planned to come from the planned multi-year production which begins in 2015 and is scheduled to run through to the late 2020s. A decision on whether and how to proceed with the follow on tranches is expected to be made in 2012, at which time it is anticipated the program will have progressed to a point of maturity where a significant portion of the flight test program has been completed, the planned IOC of the F-35B with the US Marine Corps has been achieved or is imminent, the anticipated block upgrades have been defined, and weapons system unit cost and delivery schedules can be assured.

The first unit is expected to be one of the operational squadrons which will relinquish its Hornets prior to converting to the F-35A, and will initially be based at Eglin AFB in Florida before bringing the new aircraft home to RAAF Williamtown around 2017. The Minister’s statement said the first squadron will be “ready for operations” in 2018, while all three operational squadrons “are planned to be in service” in 2021. The reference to “three squadrons” suggests this may only comprise sufficient aircraft to replace the existing ‘classic’ Hornet squadrons, as well as 2OCU, on a squadron for squadron basis, but not the two ‘bridging’ Super Hornet squadrons which may be a couple more years behind.

Apart from the first 14 aircraft, the initial $3.2bn outlay will also likely include many program-related non-recurring expenses such as the establishment of new compartmentalised squadron and basing infrastructure at RAAF Williamtown, training and maintenance manuals and facilities, ground support equipment, and synthetic and maintenance training devices. The compartmentalised headquarters structure concept is already being established for the Super Hornet squadrons at Amberley and in many ways has been brought about by US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITARS) requirements for dealing with sensitive military equipment such as weapons, secure communications and low observable materials, and these new facilities at Amberley will be utilised for the F-35 when the Super Hornets are eventually replaced. Special maintenance facilities for dealing with low observable materials and exotic paints will also need to be established before the first aircraft arrive in Australia, as will high fidelity armament and maintenance training devices and facilities, simulators and other computer-based training devices.

But even if the troubled F-35 program is able to meet Australia’s schedule requirements as laid out in the November announcement, there remains some risk to the RAAF’s air combat capability. With plans to draw down the ‘classic’ Hornet fleet as the F-35 enters service, there may be a shortfall in capability from 2015 as fatigue takes an increasing toll on the Hornet fleet, many of which will have been in service for more than 30 years by then.

Boeing is believed to have offered an alternative scenario of additional Super Hornets to the RAAF, claiming the Commonwealth would save up to $3 billion by operating a near 50/50 fleet of Super Hornets and F-35s, as well as reducing risk to the ‘classic’ Hornet fleet. But such a scenario is believed to be unlikely given the November announcement and without the support of the RAAF leadership which strongly favours an all-JSF force.