Debrief

An ultimate fleet around 400-500 19 seaters might support a new type, but it will have to perform. Those hundreds of runways (and thousands more globally) listed as strength “PCN 4/10 PSI 84” are ex DC3 strips sealed to F27 load bearing capacity, and in many cases are now degraded. Any new twin must not exceed those load numbers.

Stage length would also be critical. Originally many places 40-50 nm apart were linked in milk runs, which is now expensive operation where flight cycle costs now rule and thus longer stages of up to 400nm have emerged around the world. So it must be able lift a full load over 350nm, but also 50-60 nm occasionally, each with an alternate maybe 200 nm away when needed. But often they get in first go – meaning landing with alternate fuel on board unburned, thus demanding maximum brakes release, landing and zero fuel weights very close together, as the DC-3s had.

Passenger comfort on longer runs will demand a toilet and wash basin, and others also demand a flight attendant, which could take out two passenger seats. TAA’s Jetstream 31s carried a toilet and flight attendant, while some of Impulse’s B1900Ds used on long stages featured a toilet. The 1900D can carry 18 passengers with both.

Selling a new aircraft raises a big hurdle governing production number viability. Many of this class are now operated by users who could not fund new aircraft acquisition, rather finding niches based on used models flown at low utilisation rates. Thus the market may not support a new type but rather favour a rebuild or life extension of an existing model, similar to that Bombardier has just launched for the Dash-8-100 taking it out to 120,000 hrs (and possibly up to 150,000 cycles). Like the DC-3/C-47 replacement, this niche may take some filling.

Small Airports

No national machinery has emerged to support a viable network of low use airports as many deteriorate- or face oblivion, with Kempsey likely next to go.

Tiny Karumba has won a $2.2m upgrade which will reopen in November, albeit not on a proposed new site but fully sealed, with funds from the local, state and federal governments. But Horn Island International, which is a strategic hub for state and federal security and service base for the Torres Strait and lower Papua New Guinea, has serious runway and taxiway damage. This saw the overload dispensation for Q400s cancelled and an urgent $9.4m repair and upgrade planned.

Horn must be able to accept heavy C-130-J30s and the preferred RPT types at max take-off weight. The project scope has been ‘halved’, but over $3m is still needed to restore the main runway and access areas to Q400 level and to date no matched offer has emerged.

Rex in QLD

To gain a credible foothold in Queensland, Rex will need a vastly different network approach compared to the Maryborough attempt.
The coastal ports from Brisbane to Cairns are all open to Rex, and Torres Council, stung by Qantas’s service cuts and fare rises, is seeking competition at Horn Island which it likely won’t get.

To achieve a viable Queensland network, Rex could fly three daily flights to Bundaberg, four to Gladstone, and two each way via all major stops from Brisbane to Cairns – a virtual rerun of the abandoned Ansett network. Brisbane direct to Rockhampton five or six times daily is an obvious, and Mackay nonstop is a possible although the Q400 has a marketable payload/speed edge over Rex’s Saab 340s. On both stages Rex would also compete with partly with Virgin Blue, but Virgin dropped E Jets onto some Rex runs and will likely do so at Gladsone after it receives its upgrade. It would also compete with Jetstar’s nonstop Rocky and Mackay flights, and Qantaslink’s full service Dash 8s – mostly Q400s.

Such a network would generate near 18,000 hrs per annum, require about seven Saab 340s and 25 crews plus heavier line maintenance base. Rex used to conduct a virtual ferry flight from Lismore to Brisbane to rotate the aircraft used on its Maryborough service, but cannot do this now as it has no RPT link south of Brisbane.

Qantas would not take the competition passively, while rail and bus would dread the fare war. Any relaxation of the three-tiered

Queensland route allocation system might see expanding local Skytrans make a run for some of the subject links.