Roadmap

Also new in this DCP is a ratings system for the risk elements of all published programs, known as Acquisition Categorisation (ACAT) scores. The DCP preamble states that the ACAT scores have been introduced “in accordance with the recommendations of the Defence Procurement and Sustainment (Mortimer) Review 2008,” and that they replace the previous Estimated Phase Expenditure bands seen in previous DCPs. But the ACAT system is not entirely new, having been used internally by the DMO since 2004, and will “align the complexity of projects with the experience and competencies of project managers.”

But whilst there are apparent internal governmental and departmental benefits for truncating the DCP, industry is likely to be concerned at the lack of longer range detail upon which it can plan its product strategies and ability to ramp up its development and production capabilities, a move the Opposition says “sacrifices capability in Australia for pursuit of foreign military acquisitions.”

“Australian industry is hungry for information about Defence’s future acquisition program,” shadow Minister for Defence Science, Personnel and Assisting Shadow Minister for Defence, Bob Baldwin said in a June 29 statement. “Industry representatives have told me that they are actively engaging contractors to provide advice on Defence’s forward acquisition program because of a lack of information from the Government. If Mr Combet delivers anything less than a ten year, fully costed Defence Capability Plan, industry can not be expected to deliver complex projects on time nor deliver value for money to the Australian taxpayer.”

Four acquisition categories will be used, with the largest, most complex and most strategically significant projects being categorised as ACAT I, down to ACAT IV for those projects with the least technical risk, strategic significance, and operating, support and commercial arrangements.

Six attributes are considered when allocating an ACAT score to a project; the acquisition cost including facilities but not including sustainment; the project management complexity; the project’s schedule; the technical difficulty in delivering the capability; the complexities involved in maintaining an operational readiness and providing in-service support; and the capacity of industry to deliver and support the capability.

PROJECTS

AIR 5077 Phase 4 – AEW&C Sustainment Study

First seen in the 2006 DCP, there is little new information to be seen on this phase. Phase 4 aims to provide a direction forward which will assure the RAAF’s five Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft retain their capability edge throughout their life of type. Because the earlier elements of project are already nearing maturity and this newer phase is just a planning one, this follow on phase has been given an ACAT IV low risk rating. First pass approval of the project is due in the 2012/13 to 2014/15 timeframe.

AIR 5276 CAP 2 – AP-3C Capability Assurance Program (CAP)

The previously listed AP-3C CAP 2 will see the RAAF’s AP-3Cs receive ongoing enhancements to their data management systems, electronic support measures (ESM), and ground support system to address obsolescence issues, and will also investigate acoustic warfare system and data link upgrades, while the capabilities to be added or improved under the previously listed CAP 3 has been rolled into CAP 2.

The CAP has been given a moderate ACAI III rating and should cost about $250 million. First pass approval is due this financial year and will be followed by a decision in the 2011/12 to 2012/13 timeframe. Incorporation of the improvements is expected to be performed by Australian industry and these should enter service in the 2013-16 timeframe.

AIR 5416

Phase 4B1 – C-130J Radar Warning Receiver (RWR)

Phase 4B2 – C-130J Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures (LAIRCM)

Both of these phases are intended to provide enhanced self-protection for the RAAF’s 12-strong (and growing) C-130J fleet for operations in high risk environments. The Phase 4B1 will see the incorporation of the AN/ALR-56 RWR to the C-130J and follows on from the more basic missile warning and countermeasures dispenser capabilities already incorporated. Phase 4B2 will add the more complex LAIRCM to the aircraft giving it a laser-based infrared countermeasure system. Both are expected to be FMS ‘off the shelf’ arrangements through the US DoD.

Both sub-phases have been given a moderate ACAT III rating, although schedule on both has a higher Level 2 rating. First pass approval for both is due this year or in 2010/11, with IOC being achieved in the 2010 to 2012 timeframe.

AIR 5428 Phase 1 – Pilot Training System

Already familiar to followers of previous DCPs, AIR 5428 intends to provide the ADF with a new pilot training system and aircraft to replace flight screening and basic flying training programs at BFTS in Tamworth, and the RAAF’s PC-9 advanced trainers, and will provide initial training for Qualified Flying Instructors (QFIs). The new system will provide an increase in graduation numbers and will train pilots for new generation aircraft.

The ADF has previously expressed an interest in exploring the options for a Private Public Partnership (PPP) on this program where industry would provide the aircraft, training systems and facilities on a lease basic as opposed to a traditional acquisition model, but little progress has been seen in recent months as some areas of industry have found it difficult to obtain finance for such a venture due to the current economic crisis.

Perhaps as a consequence, there is no mention of a PPP in the new DCP, although the range of Australian industry opportunities suggests the project team is still open to a high degree of industry involvement in the project, from the provision of the curriculum, the provision of synthetic training devices and off-the-shelf aircraft, the delivery of some training functions, and in through life support activities.

The project has been given a high ACAT II rating although the overall cost, at more than $1.5 billion, will be in the very high range. First pass approval is due this financial year or in 2010/11, a decision on the successful bidder in 2012/13 to 2014/15, and IOC in the 2015-17 timeframe.

AIR 5438 Phase 1A – Lead-In Fighter Capability Assurance Program

This phase will see the RAAF’s Hawk 127 lead-in fighters remain effective and supportable through to their planned withdrawal date in the mid 2020s. Enhancements will include upgrades to the aircraft and it synthetic trainers to address obsolescence issues and to increase capability. Although the details of these have not been specified, upgrades may include those required to address recently discovered engine low pressure turbine and wing structural issues. The project has been given a moderate ACAT III rating and has been budgeted at around $300 million. First pass approval is due this financial year or in 2010/11, a decision in 2011/12 to 2012/13, and IOC in the 2015-17 timeframe.

AIR 6000

Phase 2A/2B – New Air Combat Capability – 3 Squadrons

Phase 3 – Weapons for New Air Combat Capability

Phase 5 – Future Air-to-Air Weapons for New Air Combat Capability and Super Hornet

There’s no need to go into the Phase 2A/2B of Air 6000 in great detail as this sub-phase will already be well known to regular readers of Australian Aviation and the DCP. But Phases 3 and 5 are new to this DCP, and will see the weapons cache for the F-35 acquired, and look at replacement air-to-air weapons options for the in-service AMRAAM radar-guided missile and the AIM-9X infra-red missile acquired for the Super Hornet. Whilst Phase 2A/2B will acquire an initial inventory of IOC weapons, Phases 3 and 5 will provide weapons stocks for both the air-to-surface and air-to-air missions, including a new maritime strike missile such as the Kongsberg NSM.

And with less than three per cent of the F-35’s flight test program complete to date and an acquisition cost approaching $15 billion, Phase 2A/2B has been given a very high ACAT I rating. Phases 3 and 5 have been given a moderate ACAT III rating as these are basically just follow on orders of weapons to be delivered under Phase 2A/2B or of off-the shelf systems, although the costs are expected to exceed $1.5 billion.

First pass approval for Phases 3 and 5 are expected in the 2012/13 to 2014/15 timeframe, with IOC from 2017 to 2020.

One interesting point to note is the amended IOC date for the JSF under Phase 2A/2B which now reads as 2017 to 2019, a significant slip from previously published estimates of 2013 to 2015, although this may be more a reflection of the flexibility that has come with the Super Hornet acquisition rather than any real slippage in the F-35’s development.

AIR 7000 Phase 2B – Maritime Patrol Aircraft Replacement

Recently promoted ahead of the now delayed UAV-based Phase 1B to now be the first phase of the Orion replacement program to be resolved, Phase 2B will see about eight manned aircraft, likely the Boeing 737-based P-8A Poseidon acquired.

The RAAF has all-but dismissed the possibility of re-winging the AP-3Cs and is keen to progress a manned replacement. The Orion will not only start to have structural issues in the wings late next decade, but also in other key areas which are more difficult to upgrade, as well as various systems obsolescences and supportability issues as well.

Interestingly, this project has been given ‘only’ a high ACAT II rating despite flight and structural testing beginning only in the last few months, and the developmental nature and high cost of this program, believed to be more than $3 billion.

First pass approval was passed in 2007 which also saw the ADF sign an MoU with the US Navy to co-define many of the capabilities that will be seen in the P-8A Increment 2. A final decision on the aircraft is not due until 2013/14 to 2015/16, which means IOC is unlikely to be realised before the 2017-19 (or beyond) timeframe.

AIR 8000

Phase 1 – Battlefield Airlift – Additional C-130J

Phase 2 – Battlefield Airlift – Caribou Replacement

As was outlined in the 2009 Defence White Paper, the RAAF will retire the 30 year old C-130H fleet in favour of at least two additional C-130Js, while the perennial Phase 2 Caribou replacement seems to have slipped further to the right.

The DCP notes the 2006 acquisition of four C-17s has already freed up much of the work done by the C-130Js which have in turn been able to assume the tactical role which was previously the domain of the C-130H. At least two C-130Hs have been parked in recent years, and with the amalgamation of C-130 operations into the super-sized 37SQN, consolidation of the fleet into one sub-type makes sense from a support point of view.

And while the retirement of the Caribou this year and the lease of several interim King Airs to facilitate the training of 38SQN personnel on a turbine engined, FMS equipped platform remains on track, the acquisition of a new dedicated battlefield airlifter, of which the Alenia C-27J is still believed to be the favoured option, continues to be pushed back.

Phase 1 has been given a moderate ACAT III rating, and although the DCP says only two new C-130Js will be acquired, the allowed for budget of between $500 million and $1.5 billion suggests more may follow, especially as the infrastructure and the training and support systems for the type are already in place and won’t need to be acquired. First pass for Phase 1 is due this year or in 2010/11 for a decision in 2011/12 to 2011/12, for service entry from 2013.

Phase 2 has a high ACAT II rating which is somewhat surprising seeing as a military-off-the-shelf solution has always been favoured, but perhaps is a reflection of the uncertainty currently surrounding the US Army/USAF C-27J JCA program which would likely be the RAAF’s favoured FMS acquisition route. First pass approval for Phase 2 is now due in 2010/11 to 2011/12, a decision in 2012/13 to 2014/15, with service entry coming in the 2014 to 2016 timeframe.

AIR 9000

Phase 5C – Additional Heavy Lift Helicopter

Phase 7 – Helicopter Aircrew Training System

Phase 8 – Future Naval Aviation Combat System

With the earlier phases of Air 9000 now settled or nearing service entry, the focus returns to three major re-equipment phases.

As announced in the 2009 Defence White Paper, Army will acquire seven new CH-47F Chinooks to replace the six CH-47Ds currently in service and which have seen extensive service in Afghanistan in recent years. This phase will also include the acquisition of synthetic training devices including Transportable Flight Proficiency Simulators (TFPS).

Phase 7 will see a new Helicopter Aircrew Training System (HATS) acquired to replace Army’s Kiowas and Navy’s Squirrels, but to also provide new courseware, synthetic training devices, and training facilities. Like AIR 5428, a PPP model had previously been mooted for this phase, although finance issues also apply here as well.

Also announced in the White Paper will be a replacement for Navy’s S-70B Seahawk and stillborn SH-2G(A) Seasprite combat helicopters under Phase 8 with at least 24 new helicopters, likely to be either the NH 90 NFH, or Sikorsky/Lockheed Martin MH-60R ‘Romeo’.

Phase 5C has been given a moderate ACAT III rating which is indicative of its MOTS acquisition model. A final decision is due in 2010/11 to 2011/12, while IOC is expected to be achieved in the 2016 to 2018 timeframe.

Phase 7 is also carrying a moderate ACAT III rating which perhaps is a little optimistic considering the acquisition model is yet to be established, although much of the risk will likely be carried by industry in any PPP scenario. A decision is due in 2011/12 to 2012/13, with IOC expected in the 2014 to 2016 timeframe.

Phase 8 is the big ticket item in this group, and has been given a high ACAT II rating. First pass approval is due this year or in 2010/11, a decision about 12 months after first pass, and an IOC in 2014 to 2016, a schedule which reflects the “urgent” nature of the program as it was described in the White Paper, but perhaps isn’t as urgent as some analysts had suggested.

JP 129 Phase 4 – Tier 1 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

Making a re-appearance following the cancellation of the Boeing/IAI I-View 250 system acquisition last year is Army’s JP 129 UAV requirement, now re-jigged to reflect newly defined Tier category designations as used my the US.

The first of these to appear is the Phase 4 replacement of the current Elbit Skylark hand-launched UAV currently employed by Army personnel in Afghanistan, although further phases are expected to appear in future DCPs as the requirements for other tiered categories are defined.

Phase 4 has been given a low ACAT IV rating which reflects the known and mature technologies and a plethora of OTS solutions currently available. First pass is due this year or next, a decision 12 months after that, and IOC in the 2013 to 2015 timeframe.

Beyond 2013

Moving beyond the end of the current DCP’s four year period in 2013, Defence will continue to develop some of the larger ‘big ticket’ items that it envisages will be seen in future DCPs.

“While the Government has decided that this Public DCP 2009 will set out the expenditures we expect over the next four years, significant commitments have been made in the White Paper to Australia’s future military capabilities beyond this period,” the DCP pre-amble notes.

“Some projects related to these capabilities are not included in this DCP, however, Defence may be conducting capability development activities for a number of them during the period 2009-2013. These activities may include: technical studies to determine capability performance requirements and to assess technical risks; simulation activities and prototype development and evaluation; market studies to determine industry capacity and technological expertise in certain areas; costing studies to develop a robust understanding of acquisition and through-life costs associated with the future capabilities, facilities and supporting infrastructure; studies into human factors and training needs analysis; and analysis and studies to develop plans for the future support services and sustainment systems.

The information gathered through these activities will inform the development of subsequent DCPs.”

Some of the projects included in the period beyond 2013 include a new phase/s of AIR 87 to provide system upgrades in order to maintain to effectiveness of Army’s ARH Tiger helicopter; follow-on phases of the AIR 5077 AEW&C project which will see additional capabilities added to the six Wedgetail aircraft which are due to start entering service from early next year; the repeatedly deferred AIR 7000 Phase 1B unmanned maritime and overland ISR aircraft project to replace part of the RAAF’s AP-3C Orion fleet; an additional phase of the JP 2008 satellite communications project which aims to deliver a UHF SATCOM capability covering the Pacific region; a new maritime strike weapon to equip the RAAF’s planned F-35 JSF for consideration from 2016; a replacement for Army’s current RBS 70 Ground Based Air Defence (GBAD) system which is rumoured to comprise a scaled up capability for longer range air defence as well as the capability to counter ground launched rockets, artillery and mortar systems; a new maritime extended range air defence capability which may include a ballistic missile defence capability for the three Hobart class Air Warfare Destroyers (AWD) due to enter service next year; as well as a long range land strike capability, also for the AWDs.