for expansion oR down gAUging? Virgin Blue has evaluated the use of E-Jets by its Pacific Blue subsidiary on its domestic New Zealand operations. (Michael Dawson)

Debrief

The Third Battle for Guadalcanal.

Japanese forces lost the first, while the now defunct Ozjet and SkyAirWorld (both dead due to wounds) lost the second due to overcapacity as Solomons Airlines flights operated by Air Vanuatu’s (later Our Airline) 737 and Pacific Blue’s services. The third will see Pac Blue take on Solomons’ Strategic Airlines operated A320, in lieu of Our Airline’s 737-300. The latter still holds Brisbane/Honiara rights and may well recommence selling seats.

Announced schedules and the latest loads see about 85,000 seats available for a market of around 45,000 pax each year – barely a 50 per cent load factor, which no carrier appears to make. To deal with this, Pacific Blue could drop to144 seat 737-700s or E Jets – especially with one now wearing Pacific Blue colours. The underfloor freight capacity of 5 A320/737-800s per week (less during monsoon season due to the lack of close alternates) is such that the weekly Pacific Air Express 737-300C service to Honiara might lose out. Is there more bloodshed to come?

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Advertising Spin

As Virgin Blue’s E Jets enter more regional markets, QantasLink is fighting back with more Q400 services. QantasLink’s line that the Q400 “flies higher” begs the question of comparison. Every RPT turboprop since the Viscount had a ceiling of 25,000ft here, unless modified for higher flight, with an unjustified cost/weight penalty. Some European pilots rate the Q400 as capable of way above 30,000ft, but it is not certified in this country to fly so high on RPT.

Mildura-Melbourne falls exactly between Brisbane and Rockhampton or Gladstone distance wise. All QantasLink Dash 8s plan to Gladstone at 18,000ft (19,000ft the other way) and to Rocky at 20,000ft (21,000ft back). Two random local area traffic checks each revealed about 15 RPT turboprops, but just two at 25,000ft (coincidentally both ex Sunstate – now Skytrans Dash 8-100s – on mine runs). Q400s only plan for 25,000ft on the longer flights such as Brisbane-Longreach and Canberra-Brisbane, but it does have superior climb, descent and cruise speed than the short winged Saab 340s. They plan above their smaller siblings on the shortest and longest stages by 2,000ft and can rapidly climb above 20,000ft on short stages to beat bad weather. But in the foul weather and heavy ice a few months back, a Q400 dropped under the weather to 8,000ft on the way to Rocky. Heading to the same destination were a Conquest and a King Air at 29,000ft and an E190 at 28,000ft in clear sky layers above them.

Then there is speed. QantasLink have dropped the “Jet like Speed” ads but in reality the Q400 isn’t shamed by the E Jets. The Q400’s true air speed is hardly “jet like” even if it is faster than other turboprops, but their ground and air flexibility sees them achieve the same block time on a Canberra-Sydney leg as a 737 (or Q300). Virgin posts a flight time of “around 40 minutes” for their E-170 Sydney-Albury services, but the total block time for a round trip is only 5 minutes ahead of the Q400, as it is on Melbourne-Mildura. Thus, there is little difference worth pushing in either’s block times.

In the end most passengers would prefer a nice seat (possibly the E-Jet by a whisker?) and a smooth ride even on a short hop, while greenies and accountants back lower fuel burn where the Q400 wins. Neither go anywhere when in air or ground gridlocks, and many passengers consider their trip time from when they enter the check in queue to when their bag turns up – which at times can be a very different story. Perhaps reliability, service and fares will win out, rather than ‘aircraft spin.’

Advertised fares are the latest spin to be torn open by the ACCC. From now the total all in fare must be prominently displayed, meaning AirAsiaX’s clever “you pay the fee and we fly you free” or 50c birthday fares will now face a far different buyer scrutiny. Flogging empty seats just got harder.

Nowhere is it reportedly harder to sell those seats than on Jetstar’s ambitious Japan services where swine flu is being blamed for the dramatic demand downturn, causing many short notice flight cancellations.

Kiwi magnet.

It remains a mystery to old hands as to why our carriers forever lust after the tiny, crowded New Zealand domestic market- even worse than the crowded trans-Tasman. Ansett started it 50 years back with SPANZ using 36 seat DC3s – the original sardine seaters. Qantas has now passed its 737 operations to Jetstar using bigger A320s at the expense of frequency. Virgin Blue entered the fray with Pacific Blue’s 737-800s, but that may end up largely an E Jet operation. With that and V Australia on its plate, Virgin might find the going tough unless, as Sir Richard says of V Australia they can “get it (or both) up”. It may be the same for Jetstar and also Air New Zealand, which will soon re-equip its domestic fleet.

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