Orion to Poseidon

But the RAAF could instead decide to extend the service life of its AP-3Cs to delay the need for acquiring the P-8, providing a bridging capability while it introduces the surveillance UAVs and the P-8 matures.

Back in August 2007, the US Navy and Australian government began negotiating a memorandum of understanding on P-8 procurement for the 2015-2017 timeframe, and an indication on whether the ADF will join the US Navy’s P-8 program is believed to be due soon. This envisaged Australia buying between eight and 10 ‘Spiral 1’ P-8s, after the baseline ‘Spiral 0’ aircraft enters service with the USN, at a cost of between A$3. 5-$4. 5 billion. But an ADF procurement decision is not expected until 2011-12 and with the pending release of the Defence White Paper, it remains unclear whether the Rudd Government will continue the P-8 plans of its predecessor.

It is into this void that Lockheed Martin and Australian Aerospace have sensed an opportunity, presenting their unsolicited offer to Defence last year to re-wing the RAAF’s AP-3Cs. In conjunction with the offer, EADS owned Australian Aerospace, with funding from the Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO), has been asked to study the feasibility of conducting a life extension program for the RAAF’s AP-3C fleet beyond their current retirement date of 2018.

The one-year study commenced in the third quarter of last year. Lockheed is supporting Australian Aerospace with structural and fatigue tests, while Australian Aerospace is looking at all aspects of the platform, including sub-systems, engines and the propellers.

If a decision was made to conduct the extension program, the work would likely be carried out at RAAF Base Richmond, where Australian Aerospace re-winged the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s P-3K fleet, an operation that Lockheed says provided the model for its latest re-wing solution.

Under Project Kestrel, which was completed in 2001, the six aircraft were re-winged over three years, extending their fatigue lives by approximately 20 years.

Orion Aslep

The re-winging proposal comes after Lockheed Martin opened a new outer wing production line at its Marietta, Georgia, facility last March. That line is a major part of Lockheed’s P-3 Aircraft Service Life Extension Program (ASLEP). ASLEP kit components are mainly based on data derived from a full-scale fatigue test program that ran from 1999 to 2002.

Lockheed’s Life Extension Kits replace the aircraft outer wings, centre wing lower section and horizontal stabiliser with new production components. The upgrade kit also provides new inboard upper longerons and new tailpipe exhaust shrouds for the existing engine nacelles, as well as new leading edges for the horizontal stabilisers. Depending on the condition of a particular P-3, the ASLEP kit can also include new fillets for the wing/fuselage joint, new wing leading edges, and new horizontal stabiliser boxes.

A new generation aluminium alloy – 7249 – is used, which has five times greater corrosion resistance than the earlier employed 7075 T6 series aluminium.

When the new wings are mated with the existing P-3 fuselage – which has been tested to 40,000 flight hours – the aircraft’s life can be extended by another 25 years.

Lockheed looks at the history and flight profile of each aircraft and with various tools and constraint inputs can tell exactly how much service life remains in a particular aircraft.

The Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF) became the first customer for ASLEP, under a US$95m (A$145m) contract to re-wing its six P-3 Orions, with thework being undertaken by the Canadian firm IMP Group in Nova Scotia. Delivery of the first set of wings is scheduled for August-September 2009.

The US Customs and Border Protection Service, which operates 16 P-3s for the country’s war on drugs (some of which are ex RAAF P-3Bs) became the second operator to order new wings, in May 2008.

It will re-wing 14 P-3s, with the first modified aircraft to be delivered this October.

Most significantly, the US Navy plans to re-wing 54 of its 150 or so P-3 fleet.

In August it awarded Lockheed Martin Aeronautics a US$129. 3m (A$198m) contract to supply 13 outer wing assembly kits for delivery in early 2010. In addition, on September 2 last year L-3 Communications Integrated Systems announced it had won a US$60. 6m (A$93m) contract to produce four sets of new outer wings for US Navy P-3s.

These two contracts look to signal the reversal of earlier US Navy plans to rely only on a combination of targeted maintenance (inspections have already been accelerated from every 36 months to every 18 months), modification and slow drawdown of its 161 remaining Orions until the P-8 and Global Hawk enter service.

Then in November Lockheed Martin announced it had received a US$156m (A$239m) million contract to provide the ASLEP for 10 (of 18) of the Canadian Forces’ CP-140 Aurora fleet. The life extension kits will consist of all-new outer wings, centre wing lower surface assemblies, horizontal stabilisers, wing and horizontal stabiliser leading edges, and various items to be installed on a conditional basis. A prototype aircraft will be completed this year and the last aircraft will be completed in 2014.

Finally, Taiwan is acquiring 12 ex-USN P-3Cs under a Letter of Agreement from the US, which will be re-winged, while the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is going through a study phase to determine if and when it needs to re-wing its 98 P-3J aircraft.

Lockheed Martin has had no formal discussions nor presented any definitive proposal to the RAAF on re-winging opportunities.

However, in October, the company hosted its annual P-3 International Operators Support Conference (IOSC) where the RAAF and other P-3 operator communities were briefed in general terms on its production plan for its new re-winging operation, and the various re-wing options available.

Hard Working Ap-3cs

Since 2003 the RAAF has had a continuous deployment of AP-3C Orions to the Middle East, primarily undertaking ISR missions. Some 60 per cent of the missions are said to have involved overland flights escorting friendly road convoys, searching for militants launching rockets and detecting IEDs.

By all reports the AP-3C has excelled in the Middle East, but it’s hard work on the airframes. “In some ways flying over desert rather than over the ocean is more severe because you can be getting down low, and you have a lot more buffeting over dry hot land areas,” says Ray Burick, Lockheed Martin vice president of P-3/S-3 programs.

The RAAF AP-3C fleet recently transitioned from deeper level servicing (R3) – a safe-life approach undertaken on a calendar basis and conducted every five years – to safety-by-inspection performed on a flyinghour basis (R2) every year.

If they were to be re-winged, modifications to the RAAF aircraft would likely include refurbishing the nacelles, the replacement of the outer wings, centre wing lower surface, horizontal stabiliser and fillet fairings. Not all of the leading edges would need to be replaced.

Whether the RAAF fleet needs the enlarged ASLEP kit would depend on how long it needed the aircraft to remain in service. An additional 15,000 hours would require the full ASLEP kit, but at the minimum the AP-3Cs would need the new outer wings and lower surfaces.

Existing wing nacelles, the quick engine change nacelles, flaps, ailerons, wing tips, and elevators could all be reused.

The price of one modification kit for each AP-3C would be between A$15-20m, and it is thought at least 10 AP-3Cs would need to be re-winged.

It is the AP-3C’s world class capabilities and planned upgrade path that makes a structural life extension proposal viable.

In August last year Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon visited RAAF Edinburgh near Adelaide to announce the latest series of upgrades to the AP-3Cs under theAir 5276 Capability Assurance Program 1 (CAP 1), worth $68 million. These upgrades are seeing the FLIR Systems AAQ-21 StarSAFIRE III electro-optical/ infrared sensor turret, an enhanced highrate tactical common datalink (TCDL) system, and a new video recorder system installed across the whole AP-3C fleet. The StarSAFIRE III and TCDL are already in limited use on the AP-3Cs deployed to the Middle East.

CAP 1 is the first of three elements of the Air 5276 upgrade program for the AP-3Cs. They will be followed early next decade by CAP 2’s enhancements to the aircraft’s data management system and the CAP 3 upgrades of the radar, mission simulator, acoustic system, datalinks, and ESM systems.

Further, General Dynamics Canada was contracted in August 2007 to replace the existing signal processing capabilities of the UYS-503 Acoustic Processing System.

This replaces obsolete processing cards in the acoustic system on the aircraft with the company’s PA9000 single board computers, which are equipped with ‘Pentium M’ processors. The UYS-503 has also been receiving a new embedded Tactical Acoustic Trainer, which is providing realistic simulation of acoustic contacts and oceanography. Work is being performed in Canada and Adelaide.

Also under consideration are options to upgrade the Systems Engineering Laboratory (SEL). The work will be performed by the RAAF Edinburgh based P-3 Accord comprising the DMO, BAE Systems Australia and Australian Aerospace.

Then there is the upgrade of the AN/ ALR-2001 electronic support measures (ESM) system, which is due for IOC in August 2011 and is being delivered by BAE Systems under phase 8B of Air 5276.

However, Defence Budget papers released last May state the project was at risk due to the contractor having “to draw on the technical resources of this project to rectify technical and performance issues associated with the project Air 5077 (Wedgetail) AEW&C ESM. ” Finally, last June Defence Minister Fitzgibbon indicated that Phase 2 of Joint Project 2070 to equip the Orions with the EuroTorp MU90 Lightweight Torpedo had been scrapped due to concerns over difficulties integrating the weapon with such an old airframe.

Enter Poseidon

The 737-800 based P-8 will have antisubmarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASuW) and overland surveillance capabilities built into its baseline design. The first (‘Spiral 0’) P-8s will beno less capable than current USN P-3s, so arguably in some areas the AP-3C will in fact be more capable than the initial P-8s.

Any Australian version of the P-8 (which recently won its first export customer, India) will likely be very closely aligned to the baseline US Navy version.

Lockheed Martin and Australian Aerospace contend that the RAAF could afford to extend the life of its AP-3C fleet by deferring its purchase of the ‘Spiral 1’ P-8s and buying later ‘Spiral 2’ versions instead, which will be cheaper with less associated development risk.

P-8 T-1, Boeing’s first test aircraft for the program (five developmental prototypes are now in various stages of assembly), began final assembly in March 2008 and will make its first flight in September 2009. IOC for the baseline P-8A is expected in 2013, with added capability from ‘Spiral 1’ due in 2015 and the still more capable ‘Spiral 2’ due in 2017, with full operational capability (FOC) scheduled for 2018.

Boeing has estimated the ‘Spiral 1’ add-on budget at around US$150 million, although it is still uncertain how much of the additional desired capabilities this covers.

Integration with the P-8’s eventual unmanned BAMS complement, the RQ‑4N Global Hawk, will probably begin in ‘Spiral 2’. (The Global Hawk system – FOC for the USN will comprise 15 aircraft flying five [lots of three simultaneous] orbits worldwide – will replace P-3s and provide 360-degree coverage with its Multi-Function Active Sensor radar. The first could fly as soon as mid-2011. ) The US Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) announced on August 5 2008 that it will order 36 P-8As during the first three years of production from 2010 to 2012, which may bring forward the inservice date by one year. An airframe metal fatigue crisis facing the USN P-3 fleet – which saw 39 P-3s, or one-quarter of the fleet, grounded in December 2007 due to concerns about possible structural failings in the wings – has also forced NAVAIR to take up Boeing’s earlier offer during contract negotiations to accelerate deliveries.

NAVAIR expects to order 10 aircraft in fiscal 2010, followed by 12 in FY2011 and 14 in FY2012. Nearly US$6. 3 billion has been set aside in long-range budget plans for the LRIP (low rate initial production) phase to buy all 36 aircraft, averaging about US$175 million for each P-8A.

The USN plans to evolve the P-8 into a far more capable weapon system than the current P-3. From the outset the P-8 has been designed to be part of an interlinked series of maritime intelligence, surveillance, targeting and reconnaissance (ISTAR) networks. The P-8 will be a critical node in BAMS, which aims to create a picture of maritime surface activity on an oceanic scale, able to monitor in real-time all civil and military surface ship activity around the globe. In parallel, the USN is aiming to build an equivalent system for sub-surface activity, known as the Common Undersea Picture (CUP). These two systems are to be linked to the USN’s ForceNet communications network, which seeks to link every ship, aircraft, and weapon system to allow them to exploit in real time the data made available by BAMS and CUP.

The BAMS concept envisages the P-8 fleet operating in conjunction with a constellation of UAVs (the Global Hawk) and occasionally needing to take over control of their sensors to direct them to high interest targets.

The evolution of BAMS and CUP will drive the spiral development of the P-8 mission system, sensors and weapons systems. ‘Spiral 1’ is expected to include extended echo ranging sonobuoys, ‘acoushigh flyer In US Navy service the RQ-4N Global Hawk will complement the P-8 under the service’s BAMS project. (Northrop Grumman) tic rapid-commercial-off-the-shelf insertion’ and mobile acoustic support systems, as well as the automatic identification system to provide real time tracking of merchant vessels and a basic level of control for UAVs.

To Re-wing Or Not Re-wing

So far there has been little indication of how Defence has reacted to the AP-3C rewinging proposal. Much will no doubt rest on Defence’s assessment of risk facing the P-8 program and the cost benefit analysis of spending around $200 million extending the service lives of 10 Orions by around 15 years. Lockheed Martin and Australian Aerospace are no doubt keenly awaiting the publication of this year’s Defence Capability Plan for an answer. n Nick Merrett manages the research program at Australian Defence Business Review magazine.