Virgin Value

With Finance Harder to Find These Days, a Private Equity Buyer is Less Likely, Leaving the Usual Suspects as Potential New Owners. ‘singapore Inc’, Widely Regarded as the Most Likely Having Contemplated Australian and Pacific Entry Since Ansett, Would Create Deep International Route Clashes With V Australia.

‘dubai Inc’ Which, Like Singapore, Has Been Busy Acquiring Offshore Wealth Creation Assets Also Gets a Regular Mention. While This Would Offer Emirates Entry on to the Pacific, They May Instead Choose to Simply Run Singapore Up a Few Hundred Million Dollars in a ‘dutch Auction’, Just to Annoy Singapore Airlines, Who in the End May Well Still Get Vb for Far Less Than It Previously Could or Ansett Would Have Cost.

A319s and ‘bush’ Airports

Just as There is No Way Virgin Blue Will Deploy All Its E-jets on Regional or ‘bush’ Routes, There is Little Credence in Reports Tiger May Go Towards a Substantial A319 Fleet (See P25). There Are Only a Finite Number of Suitable Pavements Outside Present Jet Routes That Have the Population or Drawing Power to Support 144-seaters.

Pilot Training

the New Academic Year Has Seen the Annual Images of Lines of New Trainee Pilots Commencing One to Three Years of Higher Education Linked Pilot Training. Many of These Kids or Their Parents Have Gone Deeply Into Debt and While Still Virtually Guaranteed a Regional F/o Job on Graduation, Many Are Concerned About the New Mpl Graduates, the Test Course for Which is Now Underway in Queensland While Casa Makes Up the Mpl Rules. They Fear Quickie Short Course Regional Sponsored ‘gap Filling’ Direct Entry Graduates and Mpls Will Jump Them Into Regional F/o and Long Haul S/o Seats.

Balancing That Are the Many Hard-headed Old Hands Who Think Mpl Holders Will Be Anchored in Those Entrylevel Jobs for a Very Long Time, Which May Motivate Airline Bean Counters to Employ Them Over Traditional Graduates Who Are Quickly Getting Poached.

Meanwhile, Aside From the Dire Warnings of Serious Instructor Shortages (See Right Hand Seat P91), Who is Going to Licence the Trainees? At One of Our Main Training Airports Five Ftos Are 70, and One is Nearing 80! Fortunately, a Love of Flying Keeps Them Going as They Will Be Even Harder to Replace Than Instructors.

Maybe Flying Training and All That Entails Will, Like Local Airlines, Be Forced to Re-cost the Whole Pilot Structure.

Luxury Competition & Reality

Qantas Going Up Market With Its Cityflyer Product Creates a Higher Yield Gap for Virgin to Ascend Into.

This in Turn is Creating a Gap Lower Down, Where Lower Cost Jetstar’s and Tiger’s Base Level Products Can Fight It Out, Provided Labour Shortages or Economic Troubles Don’t Flatten It All Before Lion Gets Into the Same Pit.

Air Travel is Traditionally One of the Most Elastic of All Consumer Products, and Once the Door Has Closed Unsold Seats Can’t Be Recycled.

Provided Yield and Load Factors Can Be Kept in Viable Ratios All Should Be Well, but if Not. . . ?