On track?

Ministerial Discussions

“tom Has Been to Australia Between 16 and 20 Times in the Last Four Years,” Lockheed Martin Australia Managing Director Paul Johnson Told Australian Aviation. “he Was Always Due to Visit Around This Time. We’ve Had Some Useful Meetings With the Government and Feel We’re Giving Them Some Very Positive News on the Program. ” “we’re at a Very Dynamic Point in the Program,” Burbage Said. “we’re Just Past the Half Way Mark of the 12 Year Development Program, and We’re Starting to Scale Back Our Engineering Resources and Ramp Up Our

“The Air Combat Study is a Valuable Effort, and We Believe the Jsf Will Acquit Itself Well in That Study. ”

production Staff Levels. ” Burbage and Johnson Were Tight Lipped About the Exact Nature of Their Discussions With the Minister. Fitzgibbon Has Undertaken to Review the Previous Howard Government’s Rapid, and Some Say Hasty, Decision to Buy 24 Super Hornets From 2010 to ‘bridge’ a Widening Capability Gap Until a Fully Operational F-35 is Available From About 2017. But the Review Will Not Only Look Into How the Super Hornet Decision Was Made, but Also at the Decision to Retire the F-111c From 2010, Whether the Ongoing Structural Refurbishment of the ‘classic’ F/a-18a/b Fleet is Still Viable, and Whether Other Aircraft Such as the F-22 Raptor Should Be Considered.

“the Air Combat Study is a Valuable Effort, and We Believe the Jsf Will Acquit Itself Well in That Study,” Paul Johnson Said.

Schedule Update

“we Had a General Discussion (With the Minister) on the Program’s Status, and Didn’t Go Much Beyond That,” Burbage Said. “i Certainly Didn’t Get a Sense From Him That There Are Any Problems With the Aircraft. The F-35 is Fairly Well Buffered Against Any Production Problems, and There is No Rationale to Suggest We Won’t Be Able to Meet Australia’s Schedule for an Ioc (Initial Operational Capability) of 2015. ”

“A Commitment Isn’t Required From Australia Until 2010 So That Long-lead Items Can Be Funded for the Raaf’s First Aircraft Which Will Come in Lrip 5. ”

however, That Ioc Target Date Will Only See One Squadron of Raaf F-35as in Service, and Not the Four Squadrons the Raaf Will Require to Fully Replace the Land and Maritime Strike Capability of the F-111c, and the Multi-role F/a-18a/b Force.

The More Important Fully Operational Capability (Foc) Milestone, Usually Declared Only When Most of the Planned Aircraft Have Been Delivered and Updated With the Planned Block 4 Software (See Below), All the Training Facilities Such as Simulators and Other Basing Infrastructure Are in Place, and an Appropriate Number of Combat Qualified Pilots Are on Strength, is Unlikely to Be Realised Before 2017 Based on the Ioc Timings Offered by Burbage at the Briefing.

“we’ve Scheduled the Aircraft’s Operational Test and Evaluation (Ot&e) for Late 2013 to Clear the Aircraft for Operational Use,” He Said.

“ot&e Must Be Complete Before the Aircraft Can Be Released for Service. The Raaf is Not Planning to Fly the Airplane Until Ot&e is Complete and Its First Four Aircraft Are Delivered to the Planned Training Unit at Eglin Afb (in Florida). ” Therefore, With Completion of Ot&e Unlikely to Occur Before Early 2014, Raaf Pilots Will Only Start Flying and Training on the First Four Jets Then.

Under the Combined Phases 2a and 2b of Project Air 6000, Lockheed Martin’s Tentative Production Schedule Shows Australia Taking Delivery of Four F-35as in 2013, Eight in 2014, 15 in 2015, 15 in 2016, 15 in 2017, and 15 in 2018. If the Jsf is Also Selected for the Later Phase 2c (as Opposed to a Newer Capability Such as a Ucav, Like That Being Developed for the Us Navy’s Ucas-n Program), a Further 15 F-35as Would Be Delivered in 2019, and the Final 13 in 2020, for a Total of 100 Aircraft.

The 57 Aircraft to Be Delivered to the Raaf by the End of 2017 Will Be Sufficient to Field an Foc of Two or Three Squadrons of About 16-18 Aircraft Each, Plus an Operational Conversion Unit (Ocu) of 12-14 Aircraft and a Couple of Instrumented Test Aircraft for Aosg.

By Comparison, the Raaf Currently Operates Four Combat Squadrons: One of F-111cs and Three F/a-18a/b Hornet Units, as Well as a Hornet Ocu.

If the Super Hornet Deal Survives Minister Fitzgibbon’s Review, These 24 Aircraft Will Adequately Bridge the Gap Between the F-111’s Retirement, the Wind Down in Availability of the ‘classic’ Hornets as They Approach Their Life of Type Around 2016, and the Ramp Up of the F-35 Fleet. But With Production of the First of the Super Hornets Getting Underway Last Month, and Training and Maintenance of the F-111c Starting to Wind Down (See Defence Update, March 2008), the Review Needs to Be Settled Quickly in Order to Avoid, in the Case of the Super Hornet, Substantial Cancellation Fees, and, for the F-111, Program and Life-of-type Extension Costs.

Interestingly, the Latest Schedule for the Jsf Provided by Burbage Suggests Australia Doesn’t Need to Sign a Contract for That Aircraft Until 2010, Instead of Later This Year as Had Previously Been Mooted. “a Commitment Isn’t Required From Australia Until 2010 So That Long-lead Items Can Be Funded for the Raaf’s First Aircraft Which Will Come in Lrip 5,” He Said. The F-35’s Production Ramp-up Will See Seven Low Rate Initial Production (Lrip) Batches of Aircraft Totalling More Than 400 Aircraft Built Before Full-rate Multi-year Procurement (Myp) Production Kicks in.

Meanwhile, Lrip 1 is Currently Nearing Completion With the First F-35b, Bf-1, Already Rolled Out and Due to Commence Flight Testing in May, and the Bg-1 Ground Test Article Due to Be Delivered to the Integrated Test Lab in July. Lrip 2 Will Comprise 12 Test Aircraft Up to the End of 2010, While Lrip 3 Will Have 19 Aircraft Including the First Dutch (F-35a) and British (F-35b) Aircraft.

Manufacture and Assembly of the 32 Aircraft to Be Built in Lrip 4 is Due to Get Underway at the End of This Year and Be Completed by the End of 2012.

Funding for Lrip 5’s 47 Jets is Planned to Be Released at the End of 2009 and Production of This Batch, Including the Raaf’s First Four F-35as, Will Run Until the End of 2013. Lrip 6 Comprises 118 Aircraft, and Will Run From the End of 2010 to 2014 and Will Include Eight More Raaf Aircraft, While the 132 Aircraft in Lrip 7, Which Will Include 15 for the Raaf, Will Be Complete in 2015. After Lrip, Multi-year Production Contracts, Each for Several Hundred Aircraft, Are Expected to Be Awarded.

Lockheed Martin’s Production Plans for the F-35 Will See 205 Aircraft Built in 2016, 230 in 2017, 231 in 2018, 230 in 2019, 219 in 2020, 181 in 2021, 159 in 2022, 150 in 2023, 143 in 2024 and 132 in 2025. These Figures Are Just for Current Us and Partner Nation Requirements, and Do Not Take Into Account Additional Orders From Partners or International Fms (Foreign Military Sale) Customers. The First Fms Aircraft is Due to Come Down the Line in 2015, and While There Are No Orders for the Aircraft Yet, There is Likely to Considerable Inter-est From Program Security Cooperation Partners Israel and Singapore, as Well as From Other Countries Such as Japan and South Korea.

“we Have Already Begun to Talk to Japan About the F-35,” Lockheed Martin’s Vp of F-35 Business Development, George Standridge, Told Aa at February’s Singapore Airshow. “the Question is When and How Does Japan Move Forward. ” on Current Planning the Production Run of the F-35 for Us and Partners is Expected to Wind Down in 2031, but Fms Sales May Take This Out Further.

Unit Cost

Burbage Says He Expects the Forecast Average Unit Cost of the F-35 to Be Realised in 2014 or 2015, Meaning the Raaf’s First 27 Aircraft to Be Acquired in Lrip 4, 5 and 6 Are Likely to Be Substantially More Expensive Than the Us$48m (a$53m) Number Which Has Been Quoted by Senior Raaf Leadership in Recent Years.

“all the Price Quotes Are Done in 2002 Dollars, as That’s When the Us and Uk Contract for the Program Was Signed,” He Explained. “you Then Need to Inflate This Out to Current Year Dollars. The Average Program Unit Cost Should Fall Somewhere in Lrip 6. ” This Means the 300 or So Aircraft Built in the Preceding Lrip Batches Will Be Much More Expensive Than the 2000 or More Which Will Follow in Lrip 7 and the Multi-year Buys, With ‘fly-away’ Unit Figures of Between Us$110m (a$122m) and Us$138m (a$153m) Being Mentioned by Various Analysts and Observers.

But Importantly for Australia, Burbage Says Lockheed Martin May Be Able to Negotiate These Early Build Lot Prices Down. “we’re Negotiating With the Dod (Us Department of Defense) for Australia to Pay One Price for All of Its Aircraft, Whether Early or Later in the Program, Rather Than the Price at Where the Aircraft Falls in the Curve,” He Said.

Australia Will Buy Its Aircraft Through the Pentagon Rather Than Direct From the Manufacturer, Much Like a Traditional Fms Agreement. This “one Price” Will Undoubtedly Be Higher Than the Average Program Unit Cost, but Lower Than What Australian Might Otherwise Have to Pay.

A Quick Extrapolation of the 2002 Figure of Us$48 Million Into Actual Procurement Year (Ie Three Years Before Delivery) Dollars Using a Four Per Cent Per Year Inflation Figure, Sees the Average Unit Cost Rising to Us$65. 7m (a$72. 9m) in 2010, About Us$71. 1m (a$78. 9m) in 2012, and Up to Us$79. 9m (a$88. 7m) in 2015.

Program Progress

Five Aircraft Are Now in Various Stages of Final Assembly at Fort Worth in Addition to the First F-35a, Aa-1, Which is Back in Flight Testing, and Bf-1, the First Stovl F-35b Model, Which is Due to Fly in May. At the Time of Writing Aa-1 Had Completed More Than 32 Test Flights.

Four Forward Fuselages Have Been Delivered and There Are a Further Eight in Production at Lockheed Martin; Northrop Grumman Has Delivered Five Centre Fuselages and There Are a Further 13 in Production; Four Rear Fuselages Have Been Delivered From Bae Systems and a Further Seven Are in Production; and Four Wing Sets Have Been Delivered and Seven More Are in Production With Lockheed Martin.

“we Have Five Final Assembly Tools Working at the Moment, and There Are Three (F-35b) Stovls and Two (F‑35a) Ctols in Various Stages of Final Assembly,” Burbage Said. “ground Testing of Bf-1 is Currently Four Days Ahead of Schedule, Hover Tests Over a Pit Are Scheduled to Start at the End of March, and First Flight is Planned for the End of May. ” “we’ve Also Finished Most of the Software Side of Things,” He Added.

“it’s Really Just the Mission System, the Integration, and the Flight Test Program.

Of Course, You’re Never Risk Free, but Half the Software is Already Flying on Aa-1. At the Sensor Level the Software is Effectively Done, So the Work to Be Done is to Integrate It All. The Software is on Track, and the Mission System is Ontrack. ” Lockheed Martin Has a Test Facility With Numerous Test Laboratories Colocated at Fort Worth, So All of the F-35’s Software Can Be Fully Developed Before It Takes Flight for Testing. The Facility Contains Manned Tactical Simulators; a Mission Systems Integration Lab; a Prognostic Health Management Lab; a Vehicle Systems Integration Facility Comprising Integration Labs for the Hydraulic, Flight Control and Electrical Systems Integration; a Utilities and Subsystems Integration Facility; an Autonomic Logistics Lab; a Vehicle Systems Processor/flight Control Systems Integration Facility; and a Jsf Interoperability Lab.

In Addition, Many of the Aircraft’s Sensors Have Already Been Flight Tested on Other Aircraft. The F-35’s Electrooptical and Distributed Aperture System Has or Will Perform 90 Hours of Flight Test on a Qf-4, Raytheon’s Bac 1-11 and an F-16, as Well as Undergoing 7000 Hours of Lab Testing. The F-35’s Electrooptical Targeting System Will Undergo 78 Hours of Flight Test on a T-39 Saberliner as Well as Lockheed Martin’s Own 737-based Co-operative Avionics Test Bed (Catbird), in Addition to the 5430 Hours in the Lab. The Apg-81 Aesa Radar Will Be Flown for 180 Hours on the Bac 1-11 and Catbird as Well as a Planned 9100 Hours in the Lab, and the Electronic Warfare and Countermeasures System Will Fly for More Than 90 Hours on the Catbird as Well as 18,600 Hours in the Lab.

The Ungainly Catbird is Scheduled to Begin Its Flight Test Duties in July, and Will Provide a Flying Laboratory for Integration Testing of All of the F-35’s Sensors. The Heavily Modified 737-300 Features an F-35 Radome Grafted Onto Its Nose, Forward Canard Wings Which Represent the Leading Edge of the F-35’s Wing, and Long Avionics Fairings on Its Spine. A Fully Representative F-35 Cockpit is Fitted Inside the Aircraft’s Cabin, as Are Numerous Test Consoles.

“we’re Installing the Last of the Sensors on Catbird Now, and This Will Be Complete by the End of October,” Said Burbage.

“from the Software Part of the Program and the Risk Reduction Work We’re Doing, We Will Have the Entire System Integrated and Flying in Catbird 12 or 18 Months Before Its in the F-35,” Added George Standridge.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon, for the Third Budget Year Running, Has Tried to Kill Off the Alternate F136 Engine to Be Supplied by Ge and Rolls-royce by Not Requesting Any Funding in Its Fy09 Budget. The F136 is the Alternate Engine for the Incumbent P&w F135, and Will Cost About Us$1. 5bn to Develop.

But, Proponents of the Alternate Engine Concept, Including Many From Within Congress Who Have Successfully Fought to Have Funding Reinstated in Previous Budget Years, Point Out That Savings Will Be Realised Over the Longer Term of the Program Through Competitive Tendering to Supply Engines to the Us and the Jsf Partners. Having a Second Engine Also Provides a Hedge Against a Design Flaw With One of the Engines Which May Result in a Fleet-wide Grounding. The Usaf Was Hurt by a Series of Engine Failures With Its P&w F100 Engines Fitted to Early F-15s and F-16s in the 1970s Resulting in Several Aircraft Losses. The Problems With the F100 Were Finally Being Overcome When the Rival Ge F110 Was Funded for the Later Build F-16c/d, and Has Also Been Ordered for Saudi, Korean and Singaporean F-15s.

These Concerns May Have Already Been Realised by a Reported Second Failure Recently of an F135 Low Pressure Turbine Blade in the Sixth Lrip Engine During Test-stand Testing Last August, Which May Result in Bf-1’s Hover Tests Being Pushed Back. A Number of Flight Test Engines Were Cleared So Aa-1 Could Resume Flight Testing in November, but a Fix Isn’t Scheduled to Be Tested Until Mid This Year.

“the Engine Issue Will Not Have an Effect on Ctol Testing,” Standridge Said. “we Expect Bf-1 to Fly on Time but the Hover Testing Phase May Be Delayed From Later This Year Until the Engine Issue Has Been Fixed. ” Meanwhile, F136 Program Supporters Have Said That, Because the F135 is Further Along Its Development Path, It Will Be Less Adaptable for Later Developments of the Jsf Should That Aircraft’s Capability Be Increased or Its Designed Weight Blow Out, Particularly the F-35b.

They Say the F136 is a More Advanced Design With Better Airflow Characteristics, and Uses Superior Materials. And With the Uk a Major Partner in the Jsf Program and Likely to Order a Rolls- Royce Powered Variant of the F-35b to Support Its Own Industrial Base, There Are Also Political Issues at Stake.

Lockheed Martin Also Gave Details on a Possible Fix Following the Electrical System Anomaly Experienced by Aa‑1 Inlast February 2007 Which Was Caused by an Overload of the System During Maximum Deflection of the Aircraft’s Control Surfaces, and Resulted in a Prolonged Grounding of the Flight Test Program.

Although the Aircraft Landed Safely, a Full Tear-down Inspection and Test Program Was Conducted on the Electrical System to Ensure It Was Safe to Return to Flight.

“the (F-35c) Cv (Carrier) Model Uses an Upsized Generator With Greater Capacity Than the Ctol and Stovl Aircraft Due to the Larger Control Surfaces, but is a More Compact Design,” Burbage Said, “so We’re Looking at Possibly Back-fitting That Generator to the Ctol and Stovl Models. ” Burbage Was Also Upbeat About the Prospects for Australian Companies to Pick Up More Work on the Program Once the Production Contracts Are Awarded. “every Partner Country Has Parts on the First Aircraft,” He Said.

“there Are Currently 17 Australian Companies Working on the Program, and There is Potential for Up to Us$2. 6bn (a$2. 8bn) in Contracts for Australian Companies Under Sdd, and Up to Us$11bn (a$12 Bn) Through Lrip and Into Myp. ”

Sustainment

Burbage Also Talked About the Aircraft’s Sustainment Program Which Will Differ Greatly From Previous Military Programs. “half of the Contracts Currently Being Negotiated Are Related to Sustainment,” He Said. “we Learned a Lot From the F-22 Program. We Brought Our Lo (Low Observables) Experience Over to the F-35, but We’ve Made It More Easily Sustainable. We’ll Have a Two Year Software Block Upgrade Cycle. Block 3 is Still Being Defined So is Not Frozen Yet, and We’re Planning a Maritime Strike Capability for the Block 4 Package. ” the Block 3 is Expected to Be Available From 2015 and Will Be the First Combat Capable Software Package, While the Follow-on Block 4 Package is Expected to Include the Norwegian Kongsberg Joint Strike Missile (Jsm) Which Has Been Specifically Designed to Fit Within the F-35’s Main Weapons Bay.

“marstrike is One of the 14 Mission Profiles Specified in the Ord (Operational Requirements Document),” Burbage Added.

Burbage Also Addressed Reports That the F-35b’s Weight Had Grown to a Point Where Its Ability to Takeoff and Land Vertically in Anything Less Than Ideal Conditions Was Marginal, and That Qinetiq in the Uk Had Been Asked to Develop a Rolling Landing Concept for the Uk. “the Weight is Tracking on Plan for All Three Models, (So) I Don’t Know Where That Came From,” He Told Aa.

“we’ve Been Working on a Rolling Landing for the F-35b From Day One So We Can Increase the Airplane’s ‘bring-back’ (Unused Weapons, Fuel) Performance, Rather Than Having to Dump Weapons in the Ocean Before Landing. ” Burbage Explained That Lockheed Martin is Looking to Develop a Concept Whereby the Aircraft Lands at About 60kt, Rather Than Vertically, With Wing Lift Adding About 1000kg to What’s Dubbed Vertical Lift Bring Back (Vlbb). But He Was Quick to Add That the F-35b Currently Meets All Partner Requirements, Including ‘bring-back’.

The Numbers Game

Perhaps the Greatest Threat to F-35 Funding May Come From Within Its Own Stable. Elements Within the Pentagon Are Now Pushing for an Increased Buy of F-22 Raptors for the Usaf, but to Fund This Money Would Have to Be Drawn From Other Programs, With the Jsf Being an Obvious Candidate Due to Its Size and Cost.

Us Defense Secretary Robert Gates Was Recently Quoted as Telling a Senate Committee That the Usaf Had Requested a Doubling in F-22 Numbers From 187 to “about 350 or Something of That Order. ” but Gates Added That He Was Worried That “if the F-22 Production is Expanded, It Will Come at the Expense of the (Jsf). The Reality is That We Are Fighting Two Wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the F-22 Has Not Performed a Mission in Either Theatre. ” Nonetheless, the Bush Administration’s Final Defence Budget Does Not Include Any Funding to Close Down F-22 Production as Had Been Expected, So the Political Debate Will Roll Over Into the Next Administration.

But Burbage Remains Confident the Requirements for 1763 F-35as for the Usaf, 650 F-35b/cs for the Marines/ Navy, and More Than 500 Aircraft for Partner Nations and Fms Customers Will Be Realised. “there May Be Some Minor Changes Around the Edges,” He Said, “but We’re Not Anticipating a Major Adjustment of Overall Numbers for the Us or Partner Services. There’s a Growing Need Within the Us Military to Replace F-15s, F-16s, the Harrier and the Older F/a-18s. The Program is Still ‘rated Green’ Against All the Current and Projected Threats, Including (Sukhoi) Su-30/35/37 and Sa-10/12 (S-300/400 Sam Systems). Those Aircraft Just Don’t Compete on Any Playing Field With This Airplane. ”