It’s all in the timing

Instead, Defence insiders say a change of government was probably always going to result in high profile projects being reviewed.

When asked to give examples of projects which he felt were under performing during the PAC 08 naval conference and exhibition in Sydney in late January, Fitzgibbon named Navy’s Seasprite helicopter and FFG frigate upgrade programs.

While the Seasprite is going nowhere in a hurry and at best won’t be available until 2012, the FFG is more problematic. Three of the four ships have now been upgraded with the Mk 41 VLS (vertical launch system) for their surface-to-air missiles and new combat systems, while the fourth is currently being worked on. But the program has suffered from delays, and “Considerable risk remains to the delivery of contractually compliant capability to Navy, given the maturity of these systems,” the ANAO found last October.

With the air combat review, Fitzgibbon essentially has four choices: to continue the current plan to retire the F‑111C and introduce the Super Hornet bridging capability from 2010, and then introduce the F-35 JSF from 2015 (or so); to cancel the Super Hornet deal and persist with the F-111C and the upgraded ‘classic’ Hornets until JSF is ready; to still retire the F-111 force and make do with KC-30B tanker supported and standoff missile armed classic Hornets (as per the former Coalition government’s plan before the Super Hornet acquisition); or to go down a totally separate path such as request and, if approved, order the F-22.

A complicating factor is that time is running out for the F-111. If the F-111 is to be retained more than a few years, it will require ongoing upgrades to see it through to its revised life of type. Enhancements of the aircraft’s ESM/EWSP system, the addition of J-class GPS guided weapons such as JDAM, and improved communications to give it a semi-networked capability will all be needed if the aircraft is going to successfully operate in a post 2012 combat environment.

Further, refurbishment of discreet components throughout the aircraft will also be required on an ongoing basis. Upgrades take time, cost money, and result in reduced availability and capability during development and production.

And with only two years to go until the currently planned F-111 withdrawal, the training ‘pipeline’ and support for the aircraft is being wound back to free up capacity for a smooth Super Hornet introduction. Once turned off, these are very difficult and very expensive to turn back on again.

Similarly, the deeper the RAAF goes into the Super Hornet acquisition process, the higher the currently estimated $500 million cancellation fee will be. In a recent interview, Chief of Defence Force Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston noted the risks of a drawn-out review.

He said the RAAF would need to be “very nimble” to reverse the F-111 wind down process, which is well advanced (the last of the F-111G trainers, for example, were quietly retired last September).

Not surprisingly, the ever apolitical ACM Houston wouldn’t be drawn on any political shenanigans behind the JSF and Super Hornet decisions, saying only, “I don’t think I will go there. ” Fortunately, it appears as if the air combat review, at least, is being fast-tracked, with Australian Aviation understanding that it could be concluded as soon as May.

Meanwhile, it finally seems the Seasprite will soon be put out of its misery, with the DMO recently requesting urgent RFPs from Sikorsky and Eurocopter for up to 27 MH-60R/S or NFH 90 helicopters respectively to replace the Seasprite as well as the Seahawk under an accelerated Air 9000 Phase 8.

If the requirement is an urgent one, and one suspects it will be if Navy chooses to replace Seahawk and Seasprite at the same time, then Sikorsky with its proven MH-60R/S may be in the box seat due to ongoing delays with the naval variant of the NH 90. Such an acquisition would go against the goals of the Air 9000 rationalisation program. Conversely, it would provide an off-theshelf and US interoperable solution in a shorter time scale.