Aircraft of the ADF — A21 MDC F/A-18 Hornet

It’s the dearth of new programs that’s doing it. In the 1970s and 1980s the Pentagon introduced four new fighters (the F-14, -15, -16 and -18), two attack aircraft (the A-10 and F-117) and two strategic bombers (the B-1 and B-2). Looking ahead from 1994 we can be sure of just two new fast jet programs: Lockheed’s F-22 and, if it qualifies as new, the McDonnell Douglas F/A-18E.

The US fighter industry faced a similar, but not chronic, problem back in the 1960s when one builder had managed to fill all air-to-air and most air-to-ground requirements with one aircraft: the Phantom. By the late 1960s the Phantom was the only US fighter under construction for the Pentagon, with everyone sitting around waiting for it to fall off its perch in the 1970s. It’s going to be a long wait for the F-22 to fall off its perch. As the aircraft now may not even enter service till after 2005. So what are Rockwell and Northrop supposed to do in the meantime?

The great hope is JAST, the Joint Advanced Strike Technology aircraft, which is potentially a third major construction program. Launched by the Pentagon’s 1993 Bottom-Up review of post Cold War defence requirements, JAST is the latest incarnation of the on-again off-again plan to replace the F-111 and A-6 Intruder. Succeeding earlier programmes called ATA (later A-12 Avenger), A-X and A/FX, the modular JAST airframe will also replace the F-15E and F-117 and, as unlikely as it sounds, maybe even the F-16 and AV-8B.

But production will not start for at least a decade, assuming it even survives. That means the builders need work in the meantime. Northrop has its B-2 programmed (recently bestowed the official name Spirit), but only for a few years. On the other hand, buying Grumman has meant scooping up the big job of remodelling the USN’s fleet of F-14 Tomcats into F/A-14 “Bombcats”, another Bottom-Up decision that would see attack capable F-14s filling the gap between the rapidly fading A-6 and whatever JAST ultimately produces.

But this does not ensure Northrop’s survival. Probably once the last B-2 rolls through its gold-plated door, the company’s combat aircraft work will be reduced to Hornet components. It could go on indefinitely like that as a parts builder, but it could just as logically become a unit of McDonnell Douglas. JAST would be crucial. Rockwell, inheritor of the great North American tradition, is in even worse shape now that the B-1 programme is over. The 100 Lancers have been delivered and the program will go no further. Which leaves Rockwell with virtually nothing.

But McDonnell Douglas and, especially Lockheed are looking good. MDC is stretching what was once the Northrop P-530 Cobra (a 1960s F-5 successor) beyond recognition into the F/A-18E, a Phantom-sized machine with an expanded fuselage, a bigger wing and lots more internal fuel. Speculating, the F/A-18E might eventually succeed the JAST project if that should lose support in Congress. McDonnell Douglas has a little more F-15 Eagle work to go, plus significant military work in the form of the troubled C-17 Globemaster III airlifter and the T-45 Goshawk trainer.

Lockheed has bounced back from having almost nothing in the 1970s to be the strongest fast-jet builder of the 1990s. Apart from the F-22, which might represent 20 years’ work, it could still squeeze more life out of GD’s F-16. Then there’s Aurora. It’s nice to think there are still big secret projects we have to just speculate about. Judging from numerous sightings and quality press reports, Aurora is Lockheed’s new Mach 5, delta wing reconnaissance aeroplane. Lockheed has received around $US1 billion for a ‘black’ project it is not talking about and analysts say a production run of 24 Auroras would be worth at least $US10 billion.

Lockheed’s position is further strengthened by two successful and long-living military projects in the form of the C-130 Hercules and P-3 Orion. The Hercules in particular will be in an almost untouchable position should the proposed C-130J Hercules II become a reality. A wild card is Boeing, which is again pitching for combat work. In April it got some Pentagon money for V/STOL development. Boeing is currently teamed with Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney, with Rolls-Royce to concentrate on adapting the F119 for STOVL applications.

Lockheed and McDonnell Douglas are also working on Advanced Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing concepts, although Boeing’s design is understood to be smaller and simpler. Both variants could enter service from 2010. With all its size, Boeing might yet be able to push its way back into warplane construction as a prime contractor. But you would have to say it could have picked a better time to try.