Update Fokker 70

Market requirements for regional jets

The Fokker aircraft have been designed for what extensive studies show is a rapidly increasing demand for regional jet aircraft over the next 20 years. It is estimated that throughout the world there will be a need for some 2200 aircraft in the 70 to 125 seat capacity range before the year 2012, as airlines look to replace ageing jets and to expand their regional networks. Seat kilometres over the projection period in this class are expected to increase by more than 20%, and with over half of the 2500 regional jets currently in scheduled service between 15 and 30 years old, the replacement market is one which Fokker hopes will bring its production levels back to those boom times of the mid to late eighties.

Airline demand is anticipated to be roughly equal in North America and Europe, with 35% and 31% respectively of the total projected orders. Asia/Pacific is third with 14%, followed by Latin America with 11% and Africa and the Middle East at 9% Demand is expected to peak at 140 aircraft in 1996, and level off at about 90 in 2012.

Bernard Dijkhuizen, Executive Vice President of the Fokker regional jet program says that 70 seat jet operations are becoming more widespread as the majors leave marginal routes to their affiliate regional and feeder carriers. “They have come to the conclusion that they cannot fly smaller equipment at acceptable costs levels”. Major airlines will continue to fly aircraft over 130 seat capacity.

The operation of a regional jet of the Fokker 70s capacity will allow carriers to increase hub feeding by enlarging the hub catchment area over slower turboprop aircraft. Additionally, the aircraft can be used on long thin routes where a larger type would be unprofitable, or serve low density destinations by-passing congested ports to provide nonstop services to secondary pairs.

The United States is seen as a potentially huge market, potential customers being the faster growing regional carriers affiliated with major airlines, and those majors who are looking towards aircraft in the 70 seat class to replace DC-9-10s and -15s and 737-100s and -200s on high frequency regional routes. The sale of Trans World’s ageing DC-9s and Continental’s 737s in the near future will allow Fokker the opportunity to establish new markets and hopefully obtain orders for hundreds of units.

European deregulation will also provide some opportunities for the Fokker 70. “All of a sudden national protection is no longer a safeguard for the future, and as a consequence competition is growing. A specific example shown by Dijkhuizen was the purchase of TAT, a long time F28 and Fokker 100 customer, by British Airways. Air France’s nervousness of the BA encroachment is seeing it consider the purchase of Fokker 100 and -70 equipment to allow it to compete more effectively. It is conceivable that this scenario will be repeated throughout Europe as it adjusts to deregulation, and Fokker, with its long standing reputation in the region and its range of aircraft, is well placed to pick up much of the business.

Without being specific, Dijkhuizen says that many of the European carriers are now looking keenly at the Fokker 70. Further afield from the United States and Europe, South East Asia and the Pacific regions are seen as potentially huge markets as new regional airlines emerge in the burgeoning growth of the area, and as existing carriers look to replace some older types such as DC-9s and F28s.

Indonesia, which has traditionally been a large Fokker customer, provided two launch customers for the Fokker 70 for domestic and regional operations. Privately owned Sempati Air, with an order for 10 plus five options, will use the 74 seat configured (20+54) aircraft to expand its regional network around the Pacific rim area, and will enable the carrier to operate jet services from operationally restricted airports. Sempati’s Fokker 70s are expected to gain the same high utilisation as the seven Fokker 100s, which hold the highest utilisation of the type with averages of seven flights and nine flying hours per day. Pelita Air Service, a non scheduled carrier servicing the state oil company, placed firm orders for five aircraft to replace its existing seven F28s. The capacity and performance of the aircraft is seen as ideal for Indonesia, and Fokker could well see more orders for the twinjet emanating from the archipelago in the near future.

Some early discussions have taken place in Australia, where the 79 seat capacity is seen as the right size for the high number of longer, thinner routes in the country. Market analysts suggest that the Fokker 70 could also be used as a competitive tool where frequency is required. The field performance of the aircraft allows it to operate from ‘unsophisticated’ airfields with a minimum of infrastructure such as those in Western Australia, Northern Territory and western Queensland.

Air Niugini, another established Fokker customer since the late sixties is also considering the sale of its F28-4000s and is looking for a replacement to operate on its domestic and shorter international routes such as Cairns and the Solomon Islands. The performance characteristics of the Fokker 70 would allow it to operate from the highland airstrips. In conjunction with Dunlop, low pressure tyre tests have al- ready been successfully completed.

Fokker’s Director of Marketing and Sales in the South Pacific, Evert Verkuyl, says “The environment in Papua New Guinea is eminently suited to a combination of the Fokker 70 and 100. ” With the family concept of jetliners, the Fokker 70 would be capable of supporting domestic and shorter international routes, and the Fokker 100 could operate on longer, thinner international and regional routes without the need for different infrastructure.

Without commenting directly on discussions with the airline, Verkuyl says, “From the position of the established relationship we have with Air Niugini, together with the combination of the Fokker 70 and 100 which is a big plus in commonality, we figure we would be well placed. ” Marketing studies show requirements for aircraft in the 70 to 100 seat class in the Australasian region as being between 70 and 75 units, and Fokker’s sales target aims to meet a sizeable portion of this demand.

Development and operations

That the Fokker 70 project was commenced without a launch customer ‘did not impede the development of the aircraft’, Dijkhuizen says. Discussions with airlines around the world lead Fokker to believe that the Fokker 70 aircraft would be a successful project regardless of there being no initial launch customer.

With high commonality between the new Fokker jetliners being the main design aim, the airframe, wing and systems of the Fokker 70 are almost identical to those of the Fokker 100. The aircraft’s length is 4. 62m shorter than the original Fokker 100 prototype Q2 from which it was derived, having a length of 30. 91m (101’8″), wing span of 28. 08m (92’1″) and a height of 8. 51m (27’11”). No major alterations were necessary to the basic design to fit the airflow patterns over the shorter fuselage and wing-engine intake areas.

The fuselage, which is manufactured in five sections, has been developed to provide a crack free life of 45,000 flight hours and an economic repair life of 90,000 flight cycles. The main structures of the aircraft are fabricated from aluminium alloys, together with composite materials in areas such as flooring, cowlings, flaps and fairings. Redux metal to metal bonding is used extensively and the fatigue life of some longitudinal joints in the pressurised section of the fuselage has been extended by the use of cold curing epoxy resin. Riveting is performed after the epoxy resin sets to eliminate potential corrosion problems.

Two Rolls-Royce Tay 620-15s (13,850lb thrust each) mounted aft provide a cruise of Mach. 77 at a maximum cruise altitude of 35,000ft (10,675m). The standard range with a full passenger payload is targeted at 1100nm (2040km) with standard fuel capacity, increasing to 1800nm (3335km) with optional tanks. Block time at long range cruise speed on a 1000nm (1853km) sector with 79 passengers is around 170 minutes, with fuel used (including 441kg manoeuvring fuel) around 4500kg.

Takeoff run with full passenger complement of 79 and fuel for a 300nm mission, with zero wind, is 1400m, and landing rollout on dry runway is 1208m.

As with many European jets, the emission controls of the twinjet are designed to minimise noise and gaseous emissions to comply with increasingly stringent airfield criteria. The noise footprint area at takeoff at 70dBA is 9. 2sqkm, and . 91sqkm at 90-dbA, up to 11EPNdB lower than Chapter 3/Stage III limits. Internal noise has been minimised through the application of noise suppressors in the engine nacelles and mounting system, air conditioning units and flap positioning equipment.

Fedde Holwerda, executive vice president for engineering, said of the Tay engines, “In its five years of service on the Fokker 100, the Tay has proved to be very reliable, with a total shop rate of less than . 06 per 1000 engine flying hours, equating to a shop visit averaging once every 17,000 engine hours. ” This assists in the worldwide fleet despatch reliability of the Fokker 100 of around 98. 3%.

“The Tay’s performance is excellent. After 7000 cycles several Tay 620 engines have shown a specific fuel consumption increase of less than . 9%, and only a small turbine gas temperature rise. Performance was then restored to normal levels after overhaul,” Holwerda explained.

Experience from operations on the Fokker 100 also shows that the wide chord fan blades and the positioning of the engines have resulted in no foreign object damage. The engine is constructed in seven modules which can be handled as separate entities during replacement and repair.

When coupled with increased weight savings the RollsRoyce Tays provide the competitive edge for the Fokker 70. When compared to rival aircraft its direct operating costs show significant advantages over other jets in its class. With costs some 16% lower than the Fokker 100 as a result of the lower weights and derated Tays, the Fokker 70’s relative Direct Operating Costs (DOC) per seat kilometre on a typical 400nm (740km) trip, place it up to 35% more economical than the Avro RJ70 with around a 20% improvement on the smaller 50 seat Canadair RJ.

The cockpit design of the 70 is also based on the Fokker 100, featuring an Automatic Flight Control and Augmentation System, EFIS, multi function displays and a flight warning system. A unique feature for a regional airliner, the 70 also incorporates a full flight envelope protection system. As standard the Fokker 70 has Cat II approach capability, but with the addition of an FMS and Cat III autoland, there will be complete flight deck commonality between the new aircraft and its bigger brother.

Numerous cabin improvements have been made since the initial design of the Fokker 100, including more accessible overhead stowage bins and a roomier atmosphere thanks to aesthetic treatments in panelling and lighting. The five abreast seating has the space saving option of wall mounted outer seat supports, a feature which carriers in the United States find useful given the sometimes overwhelming amounts of carry on baggage characteristic of internal air travel. Further customer options include service and catering areas, configuration and public telecommunications equipment.

As a result of the commonality of design between the Fokker 70 and 100, customers have the option to convert orders from one type to the other up to 14 months prior to the scheduled delivery date. In the event that an airline’s operations expand or contract during the waiting time prior to delivery, it is possible, therefore that customers may fine tune the network capacity offered by the aircraft before the fuselage sections are mated.

The prototype Fokker 70, which first flew on April 2 this year from Fokker’s facility in Woensdrecht, had already completed around 85 hours of a 480 hour test flight programme at the time of writing. Prior to its public debut at the Paris Salon the twinjet had completed exhaustive testing of the flight envelope maxima, including high speed flight and stall trails. Certification procedures for instruments, mechanical and hydraulic systems will commence in early 1994, with the first series production aircraft to be flying by August 1994. European type certification is expected in October ’94 with the first delivery to Sempati in March 1995.

Market share

Fokker believes it is in a strong position in the regional jetliner market from the point of view of competitive products.

The British Aerospace/Avro RJ family continues its decline with the rebadged airliners struggling to find a continuing reasonable market share against a superior Fokker product. With more and more of BAe 146s being withdrawn from service and parked in deserts, such is the dissatisfaction with the equipment that airlines are now looking to alternatives to continue jet operations in the short to medium haul regional routes.

Boeing’s competition is the 737-500 will only touch Fokker at the upper end of its family, in the still to be launched Fokker 130. The MD-95, whose development has yet to be confirmed, will again compete with the 130. Canadair’s RJ, because of its smaller capacity and higher operating costs, is considered little competition to the Fokker 50.

In actual direct competition, however, Fokker, Boeing and MDC are less likely to come head to head since airlines are expected to be purchasing the Fokker 130 at the upper end of their fleet, or the 737-500 at the lower end.

Bernard Dijkhuizen says, “In the Fokker 100 class, the Boeing 737-500 is the major competitor, but Boeing cannot offer a 70 seat aircraft, and commonality of types for airlines who wish to operate aircraft below 100 seats means that Fokker is a wiser investment. ” The combination of the Fokker 70 and the 100 will provide a competitive edge that other manufacturers cannot.

It is expected that the introduction of the Fokker 70 will have a beneficial influence on the future sales of the Fokker 100. It is anticipated that a small number of potential 100 customers may opt for the smaller 70, however other customers would consider the aircraft in the light of the family concept, preferring Fokker 100s in combination with the Fokker 70.

Fokker’s future under the DASA

alliance In 1993 an alliance was cemented with Deutsche Aerospace (DASA) which saw the giant company take a 51% share holding in the 74 year old Dutch company. The move, which is significant in strengthening the position and future of Fokker in the regional aircraft market, effectively gives the manufacturer the rights to the development and production of regional jet aircraft in the 65 to 130 seat range, from the Fokker 70 through to the mooted Fokker 130. Under the agreement, there will be no competing products from DASA in this market segment.

At the lower end of the scale, the Dornier 228 and 328 fit just under the capacity of the Fokker 50, which in turn provides a stepping stone between the 328 and the Fokker 70. With Fokker guaranteed the manufacture of jets in the 65 to 130 seat range, DASA is then able to offer aircraft in higher capacity categories in the Airbus family.

The consolidation of DASA and Fokker will place it in a strong position to compete effectively against other manufacturing consortiums which are emerging to attract the substantial orders being placed by an increasing number of mega carriers. Major threats from Italian/French consortia, and those emerging in Asia and South America will now be faced with an organisation that is part of Daimler-Benz, the largest industrial company in Europe, with enormous political clout and the ability to match the technological experience of DASA with the marketing prowess of Fokker.

DASA is a major risk sharing partner in the Fokker jetliner projects, together with Bombardier/ Shorts and Rolls-Royce. The development of new aircraft such as the Fokker 130 needs to be agreed upon by the supervisory board which now also includes representatives of DASA.

With Deutsche Aerospace providing the support to Fokker’s proven marketing and product range, the Dutch manufacturer stands to maintain and strengthen its market share. The debate as to whether high speed turboprops, which are expected to enter the market from the mid nineties, will have any profound effect on the regional jet market, is dependent upon the major developers such as British Aerospace (Jetstream) gaining the funding for such projects in very difficult times. If development is delayed by lack of funding, the turboprop aircraft will come in at the tail end after the likes of the Fokker 70 have been successful in gaining ground in new markets and in the valuable replacement market.

Even though development of the Fokker 70 is in its final phase, it must still contend for limited airline dollars. Bernard Dijkhuizen says, “The interest in the Fokker 70 and Fokker 100 is there, it’s just a matter of the money. ” At least the majority of the aviation industry can concede that there is light at the end of the tunnel within eighteen months.

It is now that airlines are placing orders for this upturn, and Fokker stands in good shape to profit from continuing to provide airlines with reliable aircraft.