Commercial Aircraft Sales

The MDC survey also predicts a series of highs and lows in annual deliveries, suggesting slumps between now and 1996 plus 2001 and 2007. The retirement and replacement of ageing airliners is expected to be a large contributor to the overall total, accounting for some 5000 aircraft.

Airbus Industrie’s forecast predicts the need for 13,500 new airliners during the 20 year period including 5500 larger capacity (more than210 seats) and 8000 100-210 seat aircraft. Like MDC, Airbus’ figures are based on predicted growth and the need to replace older airliners.

Come to Paris and Britain

Following successful tours to Famborough and Oshkosh in recent years, our friends at Tori Tours have put together an exciting trip to France and Britain, leaving Australia in mid June and returning three weeks later.

Escorted by Stewart Wilson, the tour takes in the Paris Air Show, the Duxford show (a warbird fan’s heaven!) and the St Athans show plus other aeronautical musts’ such as visits to aviation museums at Paris, Hendon, Newark, Yeovilton, Tangmere, Southhampton, Duxford and the famous Mosquito Museum. A big plus is a visit to the Shuttleworth Collection at Old Warden on a flying day to see the world’s best collection of vintage aircraft in the air.

Other highlights include visits to HMS Victory, the Mary Rose and the D-Day Museum, while there will also be plenty of opportunities to see the sights Paris, London, the beautiful Yorkshire Dales, the Cotswolds and other delights offered by Britain and France.

This trip is not to be missed and further information can be obtained from Jill Cook at Torli Tours on (02) 233 8500. But be quick, as bookings must close during the course of this issue.

 Boeing Optimistic About Future:

In its annual Current Market Outlook, Boeing has forecasted steady growth in the world aviation market through to the year 2010. The outlook forecasts an average annual rate of growth of 5. 4% through to 2010, with the strongest performance occurring in the dynamic Asia Pacific area, which currently accounts for 25% of all non CIS world airline traffic. This region is expected to account for 40% of traffic growth in the next 20 years, and 30% of all new airliner deliveries, worth approximately $US245bn ($A345bn). Locally, airliners to the value of $US20bn ($A28bn) are forecast to be delivered to Australian airlines through to 2010.

While 3600 jets are forecast to be retired by 2000, and 1500 between 2001 and 2010, three out of four new deliveries will be to cover traffic growth. Small to medium size jets will constitute about two thirds of deliveries, while larger aircraft will account for 58% of the seats delivered. Total world deliveries to 2010 will amount to 12,000 aircraft or 667 per year. This will result in an average per year delivery amount of about $US45bn ($A63bn) through till 2010.

 The Human Touch:

A study into the emergency evacuation of airliners by the Cranfield College of Aeronautics in Britain has revealed some interesting information.

The study into passenger behaviour during an emergency evacuation has strongly indicated that people respond much better to an authoritative and assertive human than to any number of artificial devices such as acoustic signalling equipment on aircraft. A simulated emergency cabin evacuation involving smoke in the cabin and acoustic aids to indicate exits was made a little more realistic by paying a bonus to the first to leave the aircraft, establishing a ‘panic’situation among the volunteer ‘passengers’.

It was found that shouted orders and physical signalling by trained cabin crew could reduce evacuation time by up to 50%, while the artificial acoustic devices made no significant difference.

The proportion of regular flyers on board an aircraft can also make a difference to the speed of evacuation. Those who fly frequently are more familiar with emergency procedures while infrequent travellers tend not to be despite the fact they usually claim to listen to the briefings.

The Cranfield study has also looked at communications between cabin and flight deck crews and found that the former were generally very reluctant to pass information onto the cockpit. The prime recent example of the need to correct this was the January 1989 crash of a British Midlands Boeing 737-400 just short of the runway after the crew