Paris 91-Saved By The Soviets, Again

The latest MiG is itself a distant relative of the once feared MiG-25 Foxbat and is an interesting comparison between the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker and comparable Western types such as. the F-15C Eagle and the F-14O Tomcat. Certainly it is big, slightly larger than an F-111, with a max take off weight in the region of 102,000lbs. Foxhound is powered by two Solovyev D-30F6 turbofans of 34,000lb thrust in full afterburner. This gives the aircraft a maximum speed better than Mach 2. 5 at altitude whilst Mikoyan claim the Foxhound can supercruise at Mach 2. 35 over ranges of 450nm. Without inflight refuelling Foxhound has an endurance of nearly four hours whilst its rugged, if somewhat agricultural undercarriage enables it to operate from semi-prepared airfields. Its very powerful electronically steered synthetic aperture radar (the largest and most powerful on any interceptor with a metre wide antennae) can track multiple targets simultaneously at ranges well beyond 150nm whilst an assortment of up to ten air-to-air missiles cover everything from ultra long range to close-in combat, an environment where this immense interceptor would not wish to be with any degree of comfort.

Foxhound is the only two crew Soviet interceptor in operation and is used in conjunction with the Mig-29 Fulcrum and Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker in the air defence role. Its strength lies in its powerful Flashdance radar, advanced avionics and long range Phoenix-like AA missiles which enable it to act virtually like a mini AWACS and target hostile aircraft and cruise missiles at very long ranges. Whilst, to the observer, usually the Flanker is a masterful work of art, Foxhound leaves one unsure as to its overall standard of quality. The massive undercarriage physically looks crude and unrefined as do its long range AA-9 Amos missiles. Compared to a Hughes Phoenix, Amos resembles something out of a thirties science fiction comic whilst the various metal to metal body joins throughout Foxhound’s vast airframe look rough edged and crude to say the least, almost as if the MiG was built by a blacksmith! We appreciate that these comments are hardly flattering to the Russians, but when the standard of presentation of the aircraft is compared to the latest US products parked alongside, the comparisons are difficult to miss. With equal crews in a head to head engagement between the MiG-31 and the F-15C/F-14D, I know who my money would be on, and that’s something that you cannot say about Flanker.

The other Soviet newcomer was the rather elegant Beriev. A-40 Albatross, which in some quarters is also now called Mermaid. The Beriev amphibian is primarily designed for ASW and SAR missions though it is being offered to the West also in a civil guise. There was talk at the show that a Swiss merchant bank had linked with Beriev to fund development of a 70 seat luxury civil ‘air cruise’ derivative that might be flying in prototype form by 1995. Such an aircraft, particularly if using Western avionics and engines, could be successfully deployed in areas such as our own Barrier Reef, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean. The concept certainly won support at the Salon for its novelty value in what often is a ‘me-too’ industry. It will be interesting to see if anything develops with this unusual aircraft.

Tupolev also brought their Tu-204 757 clone and are hoping for big things with this aircraft once it is certificated with Western engines. To this end, Rolls-Royce will be flying an RB211-535E4 version late next year and it is believed that both Rolls and Pratt powered versions of this aircraft will be available around mid decade if the reengineering programs proceed to plan. Other Soviet programs revealed at the Salon included an Airbus A330 look alike from heavy metal specialistAntonov, designated the An-218 and no doubt a likely candidate for eventual Western engine technology though the prototype will fly in 1994 with 53,000lb thrust class Lotarev 0-18 turbofans.

Yakovlev also publicly revealed their Yak-141, a V/STOL successor to the Yak-36 Forger. The -141 however is capable of Mach 1. 7 and is expected to become operational with the Soviet Navy around mid decade. As with its predecessor, it is powered by a combination of lift and direct thrust engines rather than using the more sophisticated vectored thrust system of the Harrier family. That everything in the once top secret Soviet arsenal is now on the open market was rather surprisingly verified on the fourth day of the Salon when Soviet officials visited the Israeli pavilion and offered that nation its highly capable AF-300 anti-ballistic missile system. The AF-300 is the Soviet equivalent of the Raytheon Patriot and up to now little known in the West except that it has a range of around 40nm and can intercept targets at up to 75,000ft. Though stunned by the overture, the Israelis politely declined as they now have their own inventory of Patriots and are actively engaged with the US in developing the Arrow ABM system. How times have changed.

Visually, the military sector grabbed the immediate attention of the more than half a million show visitors, with the impressive US Desert Storm display taking pride of place in the static park. Present were one of every type of aircraft used in the conflict from the P-3 to the F-117A, with their appropriate weaponry displayed for all to see. Along with each aircraft were aircrew eager to discuss their particular type’s qualities. One imagines that this PR deployment to Paris would have been eagerly fought over back at base! The participating Europeans were also proudly displaying their impressive array of war winning hardware which included RAF Tornado, Jaguar and French Mirage aircraft. The RAF Jaguar,in a soft desert pink with streaks of grime, dirt and oil over its worn airframe, certainly looked the real thing amidst a display of otherwise pristine aircraft.

On the commercial side, Boeing and Airbus tended to use the Salon to sharpen their knives for the inevitable fight over US accusations that Airbus subsidies are ruining the long term viability of the US airframers in a supposedly free trade environment. Certainly the prospective order from Federal Express (which was not announced at Le Bourget) for up to 75 Airbus A300 freighters and the decision by Airbus to eventually build a 747 competitor has raised the stakes in this long running GAT T dispute.

Boeing claim that the individual consortium members of Airbus are heavily subsidised by their respective governments which puts the Seattle manufacturer on an unfair footing when competing for airline orders in an open marketplace. On the other hand Airbus claim that Boeing (and also MDC) have for years enjoyed massive covert R&D assistance via such US government agencies as NASA, DARPA and a dozen other specialist aerospace institutions. Airbus also site the historic importance of large military orders for the US manufacturers and in particular the technology and productivity ‘subsidy’ given to Boeing with the 8-47, B-52 and KC-135 programs which involved the production of nearly 3,000 heavy jets over a twenty year period. With Japan now investing something in the order of 20% of the total capital required to develop the 777 program, and most of it from the Japanese government, Airbus ask, “Isn’t this too a direct government subsidy?” The outcome of this battle will certainly be worth watching.

Trade wars aside, Boeing reported a number of good orders at the show including a 27 aircraft contract from American Airlines and buys from Lufthansa, Euralair, Thai and Delta. The Lufthansa purchase of 737-400s, a direct competitor to the airline’s already strong A320 fleet, was interesting in that these will be used solely to support the new LH Berlin base.

Boeing also hinted that development of an eventual 7 47-500 was under close examination and that the aircraft would feature an entirely new wing, a modest stretch and a continuation of the upper deck hump right back to the empennage. Capacity would be in the order of 600 pax in a three class configuration with an in service date around 1999. In the meantime its 747-400 production line is sold out for years to come and the company is gearing up to produce over 40 airframes spanning four models and eight versions a month by year end, despite the present airline difficulties.

Airbus meanwhile were emphasising that they would most definitely be building a 7 4 7 competitor for an official project launch around 1995 and an entry to service by 1998/99. The A350 will be either a double passenger deck transport in the current 747 style or will be a very wide single deck aircraft using the shape of the flat fuselage as a lifting body (refer p. 7 May 91 AA). Advanced concepts such as very high bypass geared turbofan or propfan propulsion will be used possibly in conjunction with fly-by-light electronicsignalling plus a greater emphasis on lightweight composite materials. The 600/800 pax aircraft will be built at Toulouse in a new facility alongside the recently opened Aerospatiale A330/340 assembly halls at Colomiers. A design objective would be that the A350 would have to offer seat kilometre costs at least a third lower than the 7 47-400 in addition to reduced maintenance costs.

At the other end of the Airbus scale the consortium was still hedging its bets on whether to launch a scaled down A320, now officially designated the A319. This would see seven fuselage frames removed from the basic A320 fuselage structure with derated CFM56 or IAE V2500 engines powering an aircraft of 110/130 seats. A final decision on launch will be taken later this year or early in 1992 for an entry to service during 1995. As the type is merely a basic redesign of an existing aircraft (like the 737-500 and MD-95) Airbus foresee the project development costs as less than $300m compared with over a billion dollars required to develop an all-newjetliner in this class.

And an all new jetliner is what the A319, if it is launched, would be up against if the project currenty being mooted by Airbus partners Aerospatiale, Deutsche Aerospace and Casa in conjunction with Italy’s Alenia gets off the ground.

This group is promoting a two aircraft family of modern jets in the 80/130 seat range that would fly head to head against the A319 (at the top end), the existing Fokker 100 (and proposed F130), BAe’s 146 and NRA, MDC’s MD-95 (a shortened fuselage MD-87) and Boeing’s 737-500. Airbus itself is not impressed that its two major shareholders would be building a direct competitor to an Airbus product whilst BAe consider that their NRA is now in a niche just below the A319 and can live in harmony with the Airbus mini jet. A significantly changed attitude to just a few months ago when senior BAe executives made it publicly clear that they would not under any circumstances build their NRA as a competitor to an Airbus product.

Pretty well all the parties involved agree that between the years 1995 and 2010 a market exists for 2,500 such jets in what would be an $80bn market in current year values. The latest DASA/Aerospatiale offerings in this class are derivatives of concepts that have for several years been bandied about as the MPG 75 (MBB & Catie of China) and the AAC 90/120 by a wide ranging European group headed for a time by Casa. It is generally felt that the latest foray from Deutsche Aerospace, Aerospatiale, Alenia and Casa is beyond their combined resources particularly in view of their commitments to Airbus and the potential loss of long term revenue each partner would suffer if they build a direct competitor to what is in effect their own product.

However, a cynic might well consider this an ideal opportunity for Deutsche Aerospace to do some fancy negotiating with Airbus for a greater share of the long term Al assembly program, as they successfully did with the A321. Similarly, Aerospatiale could well boost its own interest in future Al products, particularly the A350. Don’t hold your breath for the outcome.

Across the Channel at British Aerospace things were much more defined with the company announcing that irrespective of whether Airbus choose to launch the A319, their 120 seat class New Regional Airliner (NRA) will definitely proceed. This is logical for BAe as it is the long term successor to the 146 that has always been so obvious. In fact, the original Hawker Siddeley 146 design back in the seventies only really went with four engines because there were not then engines with the required thrust ratings to allow a twin engine design. NRA would thus be powered

by two CFM or IAE derated engines in place of the four Textron Lycomings. This is more than a logical idea whilst the basic commonality to the standard 146 range is such that BAe already has an established market base from which to derive future sales, just as it does with the two versions of its Jetstream.

The company was also bullish about a runway extension being given the green light at London’s downtown Dockland stolport, something that would see a number of important 146 orders being rapidly signed. The major obstacle to runway extensions was the construction of a very high bridge down river from the stolport. This has just recently been redesigned to allow jet approaches into and out of the stolport and a decision is expected later this year. Australia’s Paris involvement this year was very low key with just a handful of exhibitors displaying our capabilities. Perhaps a sign of the times as corporate budgets shrink and the Asian Aerospace exposition at Singapore takes on greater regional importance. Perhaps a bad omen was the Austrian display having an Australian flag plastered on its headboard! We don’t know how the Austrians felt about this but certainly the Australians were not impressed.

And so another Paris Salon closed. No mega orders, a lacklustre flying display by any standard, saved yet again by the friendly Russians, and little new news. Farnborough ’92 perhaps will be better, boosted hopefully as it will be by an improving international economy, a revitalised air transport sector and the spectre of a number of new planes such as the A340, F-22 Lightning, F-117, B-2, V-22 Osprey, Canadair RJ, Saab 2000 and the J41 making their flying debuts in the sunny skies above Hampshire.

Let’s hope so.