1988 Farnborough Air Show Report

This Farnborough will really go down in history as being the air show where people were simply too busy working to worry about entertaining the PR hype that goes with most other shows. There were no mega orders announced, no new programmes launched and in real terms little else that captured a headline for more than a day. The situation today is a far cry from those gloomy days of the ’82 and ’84 shows when even a two plane order from Royal Togo Air would meet with a massive fanfare at the XYZ Aviation chalet and be claimed as a major success following years of negotiation amidst cut throat competition from a subsidised competitor! How the times have (fortunately) changed. Today the talk is rather focused upon how to build the airliners that have already been ordered. You can’t, for instance, get delivery of a 737 till around 1994, an A320 till ’95, an MD-80 till ’93 or a 747-400 till ’92 at the earliest. Unless of course you deal directly with one of the mega lessors who just happen to have line positions available for speedier delivery. Boeing has sold more jetliners in the first nine months of this year than any full year in its history (466 worth over $A26bn!), they presently have an order backlog of nearly 1,100 jets with monthly production heading towards three dozen units. McDonnell Douglas has over 600 MD-80s on back order while by 1993 even Airbus will be turning out 18 to 20 airframes a month and existing A320 slots are now being actively sold for profit on the open market!

In fact, much of the talk at Farnborough had turned not to aircraft sales, but more to congested airspace and airports and how could Europe, for instance, deregulate in 1992 if there is not enough concrete from which to operate all these extra aircraft. Summer 1988 in Europe was an aeronautical nightmare, a vision of the future if the EEC doesn’t get its act together to introduce one common Eurocontrol ATC system covering all of Europe and not just the EEC member states. Certainly the changes that are about to take place in Europe will be seen eventually to have been more profound than those which the USA endured from 1978 when deregulation was introduced. Maybe Paris ’89 will have some of the answers to this ‘here now’ problem?

In the absence of mega orders and programme launches, the primary news story revolved around what is interestingly an entirely new type of aircraft – the regional jet.

This unusual challenge in what is aviation’s most competitive market, that of the 30/ 7 0 seat commuter, is being led by Shorts with their all new FJX and Canadair with what is essentially a derivative of the Challenger corporate jet. Both however are tracking in entirely different directions to fill the arequirement for a jet of between 44 (Shorts) and 48/52 seats (Canadair) that will economically cruise at around 400kts over stages of up to 1,000nm with max payload.

The name of the game is to thus be able to bypass the ever more congested hubs, which more and more are becoming congested to the point of not being able to meet their initial goal of operating as crossover points between connecting flights. If most of the flights in and out are delayed, then it is difficult to connect with a plane that either won’t arrive or has already left. On the other hand, if you can fly from say New Orleans to Memphis without having to endure Atlanta (some US airline wags say that even when you die you have to go through Atlanta to get to the land beyond!), then that airline might just be on a winner. And with only two dozen seats to fill for a profitable trip, then jet efficiency takes on a new meaning.

Europe, of course, also has its own bottlenecks – Heathrow, Frankfurt, Paris, the list goes on and it is also here where the two companies hope to be able to sell their new jets as the nineties way to commute. Australia too shouldn’t miss the point. -If you don’t live in either Sydney or Melbourne then to virtually get anywhere else you must transit one of or both of these airports, and we all know how congested Sydney already is with something like half the people landing there travelling on directly to another port. The benefits of a fast 50 seat jet are obvious, IF it can compete cost effectively with the turboprop alternative.

This of course is the bottom line – the cost of operating one seat over one air kilometre – and it is here that one of the manufacturers may come unstuck on their to date published data. Lets’s have a look at it closer.

Shorts are building an entirely new airframe, which will in turn be powered by an as yet unspecified new engine. They wisely estimate a total programme cost in the order of $A1bn and are looking for partners with which to share the risk, at presstime both Fokker and Boeing were evaluating the project. However on top of that, they largely estimate that their aircraft will be capable of using engines in the 5,000Ib thrust class, something that given the size of the aircraft is largely considered optimistic at best. If that wasn’t enough though Shorts are still quoting a flyaway price of $US1Om. Now you don’t get a green corporate jet of that size for anything near that figure, let alone a fully equipped airliner. Our tip is that the real price will be at least 50% greater, something that will also greatly influence the bottom line cost of operating the new type.

The other contender is from Canadair. They have essentially decided to stretch their existing Challenger 601 jet, upgrade the wing and undercarriage and use standard 9,140Ib thrust GE CF34 engines straight from their 601A-3 Challenger. Thus they have an aircraft that is essentially already proven and will thus require about one third the development costs of the all new Shorts FJX. Canadair, despite the obvious programme savings, are by comparison quoting a flyaway price of around $US14m. Now we don’t want to take sides, but what do you think?

Both types will, according to their originators, be launched early next year and will become operational around 1992/93.

Meanwhile, the field they challenge is also still on the boil, though much of what’s cooking has been on the stove for some time! Saab are getting closer to a firm decision on a 50 seat stretch of their successful 36 seat 340. De Havilland Canada (we’re deliberately resisting calling it Boeing Canada, Sir Geoffrey would turn over in his grave at that!) is still toying with the idea of the super fast Dash 8-400 while Fokker is again looking at a Fokker 50 stretch (and also a stretch of the Fokker 100, to 120/130 seats, maybe they will call it the DC-9!) while BAe might still stretch their hot selling Jetstream to a 27/30 seater. There are now no less than thirteen different new types competing in the 19/72 seat regional airliner market yet the amazing thing is that most of them are running near full production lines, with the spectre of possibly another half dozen additions and variants due to be added to the list over the coming few years.

On the military side all attention was naturally enough focused squarely upon the visitors from the East. From the time the two Fulcrums, flying on Aeroflot flight numbers, were intercepted by Tornados from No5 Squadron, RAF Coningsby, over the North Sea and escorted via West Drayton down to Farnborough, then there was little else to talk about. The political magnitude of this decision is indeed of great importance and augers well for the future for all concerned.

The MiG’s put on a fine display, virtually as good as that of their Western counterparts though what made it more impressive is that the Fulcrum (their NATO codename), which first flew in 1977 and entered service in ’83, operates with hydraulic controls and is not fly by wire. The highlight of the Soviet demonstration was a near vertical climb following a loop to 3,000ft where on reducing power the aircraft tailslides before recovering in a reverse turn before a high alpha run over the centreline at minimum airspeed. The Soviets stunned all with this gutsy manoeuver and claim that it is routinely used tactically to break a doppler radar lock. After all, they claim, if you can literally stop dead in flight at low level, as the MiG does for several seconds, then you can break your opponents radar lock which is then lost in the associated ground clutter. An interesting idea but to have zilch energy in a parcel of airspace infested with adversaries (not to mention ground based guns and missiles) might well prove hazardous to one’s health. Let’s hope we don’t have to find out.

The MiG-29 is roughly analogous to the MDC F-18 in size and mission objective. It is believed that around 500 are already in Soviet service and the type is being exported to Iraq, Syria, North Korea, India and the Warpac countries. It has a max takeoff weight of 39,000lb, has 6 underwing pylons, carries both IR and radar guided missiles, has a look-down shoot-down radar and can operate from unprepared strips. To facilitate this, the aircraft features unique intake doors which block off the main intakes while the nose gear is extended, air then being sucked in via large vents above the leading edge extension (LEX). Most observers queried how the two Tumanskys (of around 16,000lb thrust each on afterburner) could get sufficient air via this odd arrangement but it obviously works and also serves to protect the engines from Foreign Object Digestion (FOO).

Fulcrum also boasts a pulse doppler radar with a stated range of 50nm in addition to an unusual IR system that uses a laser ranger slaved to the radar to designate a target. The pilot can then shut down his radar (and thus not be actively emitting a radar signature for a time) and still track his airborne target using the FUR. This, quote the Soviets, works very well. No doubt also working well was every Elint gathering source within NATO as the two Mikoyans transited from East Germany to Farnborough. Everything from the NATO E-3 AWACS to ground based sensors would have been keen to record and document the real time radar and IR emissions of one of the Soviet arsenal’s most important combat types. It was also observed that on the day of their arrival that a Canberra PR. 9 of RAF 1sqn, suitably equipped with sophisticated IR equipment and the Viscount of the Royal Signals and Radar Research Establishment were seen orbiting Farnborough for much of the day!

From the West, meanwhile, came the usual superb flying demonstrations by the Rafale A, Mirage 2000, F-16C, Tornado ADV and an RCAF F-18A. With the long fought over European Fighter Aircraft (EFA) now finally launched, it makes you wonder just how good this aircraft will have to be to be significantly better value than the existing, or improved versions of the current breed of Western fighters. Like the airliners, not much new was occurring in the military environment, a fairly (thankfully) peaceful world, reduced defence spending almost everywhere and the vast cost of initiating new programmes at a time when updates, via new technology electronics, systems and avionics make old aircraft into new at a reasonable cost, has all but quelled the need to replace one’s inventory every decade or so as was the fashion of the fifties and sixties.

The emerging market though was in helicopters. MOH put on a stunning flying exhibition of what their very effective AH-64 Apache can do with their sights set firmly on a collaborative co production plan with West Germany and possibly the Netherlands. Westland also showed off their aerobatic Lynx while the new Agusta/Westland EH Industries EH. 101 Merlin. flew publicly for the first time. This large Chinook class helo is set for a strong future and has already won large orders from Italy, the UK and Canada. For Australia it is a future Chinook successor and may also find favour in replacing RAN Sea Kings and Wessex in the utility role.

Australia was represented by Aerospace Technologies of Australia via their new found affiliation with Brooklands Aviation. Teamed with Brooklands, ASTA are producing an electronics surveillance package for what was the Edgley Optica, now renamed the Scout or Scoutmaster if equipped with ASTA’s proven Searchmaster surveillance kit. ASTA has much expertise in this demanding field and aerodynamically the Scout itself offers a true alternative to the light to medium lift helicopter at around a third of the operating cost. The team is already talking with the US Customs Service (which already operates Searchmasters very effectively) in addition to the Egyptian Government amongst others.

Overall, Farnborough 88 can certainly be judged as a highly successful show. The weather was the best yet, the trade turnout represented a new record and the bottom line was simply that virtually everybody was too busy just trying to meet present commitments to engage in some of the more dubious kite flying that often passes for hard news at similar shows. See you at Paris.