Air Safety
The Numbers Game
The statistics appear each year – the number of accidents per hundred-thousand flying hours, the percentage of fatal accidents, the five-year averages and so on. The numbers can be juggled, interpreted and analysed depending on your point of view. But, no matter how you look at them, how you smooth the data, how you fit the curves or how you plot the graphs, there are some unavoidably real statistics.
Australian Regular Public Transport (RPT) services have an excellent safety record and with the continuing attention paid by the airline industry to safety, their unequalled record will hopefully continue. ‘General Aviation’ (GA) hasn’t such a distinguished record but it is unfair to generalise. Let’s examine the GA statistics a little more closely.
GA has many facets each of which has its own inherent risk factors and operational peculiarities. This of course must be borne in mind when considering the statistics.
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Commuter services have had 32 accidents in 10 years but, apart from a fatal accident in 1980, they are the equal of the airlines in terms of passenger safety.
The Flying Training organisations have a good record overall which, despite the nature of their operations and the incidence of minor accidents, includes only one fatal accident in ten years. This was in 1979.
The Charter and Aerial Work categories encompass diverse types of operation but together with the Private and Business categories account for the majority of aviation accidents and incidents.
The GA accident record appears to have reached a plateau regardless of the number of hours flown, where we can expect about 235 accidents per year causing about 30 fatalities and having a direct cost of about thirty million dollars. The indirect cost to the community could be as high as one hundred million dollars annually. It’s sad that this year’s statistics will probably be much the same despite all our efforts. I find this hard to accept. We can even predict the type of accidents and the likely cause. I find this even harder to accept if we don’t use this information to save lives.
The statistics for 1983 and 1984 (and the trend for 1985 is similar), show us that:
• pilots with less than five hundred hours total experience are most susceptible to landing accidents and loss of control at low speed.
• pilots with one hundred to one thousand hours total experience are most susceptible to wheels-up landings, overruns, loss of control at low speed and engine failures or malfunctions.
• pilots with five hundred to five thousand hours total experience are most susceptible to wheels-up landings nose-overs, roll-overs, overruns, collisions with wires, poles, trees and fences as well as engine failures and malfunctions.
• pilots with less than three hundred hours on-type, almost irrespective of total experience are most susceptible to ground loops, hard landings and overturning.
• all pilots irrespective of total experience or hours on-type are most susceptible to wheels-up landings, hard landings, overruns, collision with various objects, loss of control at low speeds and engine failures or malfunctions.
The micro view of the statistics even shows why and how each of the accidents occurred. These are analysed and published regularly in the Aviation Safety Digest. Armed with this sort of information we should be able to eliminate accidents altogether except for the tact that humans will continue to make mistakes.
But let’s keep the big picture in view. Almost all the accidents are avoidable. Almost all involve human factors particularly where that human has no back-up, supervision, double-check or assistance and particularly where that one human being is tired, rushed, stressed, frightened, unfamiliar with the aircraft or environment or is not current.
If the environment of each type of operation is taken into consideration, the significant difference that I perceive is supervision or lack of it. I am not referring to Departmental supervision or Regulation, I am talking about Industry’s self-supervision that is Chief Pilot supervision, Chief Flying Instructor supervision, Senior Pilot supervision, Captain/Copilot supervision and instructor/student supervision.
Let’s be more specific. The human factor is the major cause of accidents – human failings, human weaknesses, human limitations and human errors of judgement. The fact that the human machine is limited in the unforgiving airborne environment is well-researched and documented. But to allow these limitations to cause accidents is another matter. The RPT record is as good as it is because their supervisors plan around human weaknesses by systems design, procedures, double-checks, supervision, training and education.
In many instances throughout General Aviation, the pilot is largely on his own – his own supervision, his own double-check, his own procedures, his own training, his own standards and his own education. Further, the design standards applicable to light aircraft are less stringent and pay less attention to ergonomics, that is good cockpit layout, clear markings, adequate illumination and distinct, logical controls and switches.
In this context, it is perhaps surprising that the accident statistics are not a great deal worse. Remember though, we are talking about averages. Individual pilots vary from professional to cowboys, competent to unsafe, mature to irresponsible, caring to inconsiderate, calm to excitable and trustworthy to unreliable. Most pilots are self-disciplined. Some are downright dangerous. While the statistics can predict the likely number of accidents the pilot’s attitude will largely determine who has the accidents.
Safe flight depends on the pilot being familiar and satisfied With:
• the pilot – his own weaknesses and limitations.
• the aircraft – its readiness, serviceability and limitations.
• the environment – and whether that pilot and that aircraft are adequately prepared and equipped for that environment. If doubt exists about any of these aspects the ‘professional’ will eliminate that doubt or he will not go. He doesn’t need someone else to tell him what to do. He decides and he assumes the responsibility for his decisions. While statistics can be misused, the data is sufficiently firm and consistent for us to be concerned about:
• the ability of pilots to safely and consistently takeoff and land their aircraft particularly at unfamiliar ALA’s.
• the number of wheels-up landings.
• the collisions.
• the ground-loops.
• the loss of control at low speed; and
• the engine failures and malfunctions.
But it is misleading to believe that these are manipulative problems alone. These accidents are mostly caused sometime earlier when a particular decision is made or a chain of events was allowed to develop.
While supervisors have a responsibility and while the statistics can show specific areas for concern it is those who operate without supervision who have an even greater responsibility. You may call it self-discipline. You may call it professional integrity.
While we can predict the accidents it is you who decides who has the accident. Don’t let it be you. Please. Happy Landings.
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