Newsdesk – Commercial Aviation

Losers will be few but one area of aviation that will most definitely be hit is the helicopter industry specialising in offshore oil support. This sector of aviation has been in the doldrums now for several years and the recent crude price slide only services to speed the decline of this area of the industry. Many major fields, mooted as potential El Dorados in the late seventies, have failed to materialise while activity in the Gulf of Mexico, off China and in the North Sea has declined substantially these past three years. The frenzy of the seventies in the search for “black gold’ has simply waned as oil once more returns to a more realistic price. Closer to home the effects should be good for all, providing the Federal Government is true to its election promise and reduces our parity price accordingly. Unfortunately in politics what goes up does not always necessarily come down in terms of new taxes and cash cows for government coffers. If our domestic production is brought into line with world parity prices though the effects will be beneficial as the drop in the price of avgas could be between 6c and 9c a litre. This would have the effect of decreasing the cost of flying and help offset some of the expected increases that will ultimately flow to all of us from the various cost recovery programmes that are soon to take wing.

Boeing Boosts Sales, Earnings in 1985:

Boeing has reported increased sales of US$13,636 million and earnings from current operations of US$566 million, for 1985.

Comparable figures for 1984 were sales of US$10,354 million and earnings of US$390 million.

Boeing Chairman Mr T. A. Wilson said airline traffic growth in 1985 continued the strong up- ward movement which began in 1984. Generally, the airline’s fuel and labour costs remained on a downward trend. Overall announced orders of commercial jet transports in 1985 showed a significant increase over 1984. The excess capacity that existed previously in the used aeroplane market had been essentially eliminated. The total commercial airliner market for the 1986-1995 period was estimated to be US$140 billion expressed in 1986 dollars.

New orders were announced in 1985 for 390 jet transports valued at about US$14. 9 billion compared to 1984 orders of 169 jet transports valued at about US$5. 8 billion. The 1985 announced orders ranked first in dollar value and second in total aircraft in the company’s 30-year history of jet transport sales. The latter deliveries of the 1985 United Airlines 116 737- 300 and 747 order are subject to reconfirmation by United. The announced orders by the program were: 30 737-200s: 252 737-300s: 42 7478; 45 7578 and 21 767s.

During 1985, Boeing delivered 3 707s (E- 3As), 32 737-200s, 83 737-300s, 24 7478, 36 7578 and 25 767s for a total of 203 aeroplanes compared to 8 707s, 8 7278, 60 737-2008, 7 737-300s, 16747s, 18 7578 and 29 767s for a total of 146 aircraft in 1984.

Current schedules call for the delivery of 6 7078, 19 737-2008, 118 737-3008, 34 7478,34 757s and 28 767s during 1986 for a total of 239 aircraft. Based on current program schedules, sales for 1986 are projected to be in the US$15. 5 billion range.

An Era of Mergers and Takeovers:

We are indeed living in an era of mergers and corporate takeovers. Over the past eighteen months much of the aerospace scene has changed as a number of aviation giants have been merged with often non-aviation companies.

During the early eighties, Raytheon bought Beechcraft, (which has now acquired Mitsubishi aviation interests) Lear Siegler purchased Piper and in late ’85 General Dynamics acquired 51% of the world’s largest GA producer, Cessna. Also in late ’85 giant Boeing purchased an ailing de Havilland Canada while Carl Icahn continued his struggles with TWA, still one of the world’s largest airlines. Signal is now the parent of Garrett while Allied owns Bendix and King Radio. McDonnell Douglas purchased Hughes.

Helicopters while General Motors acquired Hughes Aircraft and Chrysler brought out Gulfstream Aerospace. Canadair, as we went to press, were still available for takeover while closer to home Hawker de Havilland took over CAC. TAA also acquired Air Queensland though Ansett appears to safely have the all-important on-carriage for some time to come.

 Fokker 50 Makes First Flight:

Fokker capped of a brilliant 1985 with the first flight of their ‘new’ Fokker 50 turboprop airliner on December 28th. The first flight went to plan and was used primarily to establish the synchronisation of the various new systems aboard the aircraft. Flight testing will continue at Fokker’s Schiphol facility bill April when both development aircraft will depart for Spain to establish specific runway requirement characteristics and measure noise levels.

Total flight development period is estimated at some 650 flight hours with FAA and JAR Certification being obtained by December 1986. Ansett is due to receive its first of type early next year and to date Fokker hold orders and options for 50 of the new 50 seat airliners.

 British Aerospace Make Second Major Penetration of Californian Airline Market:

BAe wrapped up a highly successful 1985 with the recent announcement of the firm sale of 6 BAe 146-200 aircraft to AirCal in addition to a re-order of 4-200s to PSA. Pacific Southwest Airlines currently operates the world’s largest fleet of 146s and their latest order will bring their inventory of type to 24. The only bad news for Hatfield was the eventual loss of a previously reported sale of 146s to Hawaiian Airlines due to financing problems.

Meanwhile the Scottish Division also had cause to celebrate as Republic Express Airlines ordered an additional 10 Jetstreams to bring their fleet total to 30. Not to be entirely outdone, Metro Express ordered 20 Jetstreams and CC Air 5 aircraft.

Use of the double designator system, whereby small commuter operators feed directly into larger regional carriers in the USA has provided a bonanza for manufacturers producing aircraft in the 18/36-seat category. Over the past two years there has been a virtual frenzy of commuters linking up with larger carriers to enjoy the system-wide reservations system and route networking not previously available to them. The concept of the system has been in vogue for several years now though it has only been in relatively recent times that the rapid spread of hub-and-spoke operations and a sizeable upturn in passenger traffic along with modern, fast and comfortable aircraft such as the Jetstream, Metro Ill and Beech 1900, has made the feeder system work as well as it presently appears to.

Growth of the commuters has been so strong that most this year will double their RPKs of 1981. Furthermore the fleets ‘are expanding into larger aircraft that only four years ago would not have been envisaged.

Will Aerospaceplane Leapfrog the Supersonic Transport?

With the BAC/Aerospatiale Concorde nowadays transformed into a high-profile money earner, the world’s major aerospace companies have been talking more optimistically in recent times of the second generation SST to eventually re-place Concorde. Most feel that if it did occur then a large consortium (perhaps similar to IAE) would get together to maximise technical spinoff and reduce costs by limiting competition and pooling expertise.

By the close of 1985 however the mood had changed to the point where the SST concept is being largely overridden in favour of what is now being referred to as the Aerospaceplane. The Aerospaceplane concept was first ‘flown’ by British Aerospace at the 1985 Paris Air Show when they released details of their revolutionary HÓTOL concept which was aimed more at competing against future versions of the NASA Shuttle and at Ariane. HOTOL is a hypersonic delta planform aircraft that could eventually fly Europe to Australia on the fringes of the atmosphere in four hours or less. BAe and Rolls Royce are actively working on the HOTOL concept and the basic philosophy of the design has won sufficiently backing to now awaken the USA into direct competition- tion.

The American answer to HOTOL is sponsored by the Defence Advanced Research Agency (DARPA) with significant input from NASA and the R&D think tanks of all the major aerospace giants. Called the Aerospaceplane, the aircraft, which looks similar to HOTÓL will also take off and land in a normal aircraft horizontal mode. Power is to be supplied by ramjet derivatives using advanced materials not previously available and pioneered in recent years by NASA in the Shuttle programme.

While the use of both types would be principal, at least in the initial funding stages, as low earth-orbit satellite launchers and surveillance aircraft the use of such vehicles as airliners is assured due to their long-range high-speed flight profiles. McDonnell Douglas foresees the aircraft as an ‘Orient Express’, able to link up New York with Tokyo in less than 2 hours! By the turn of the century, there will be at least two dozen such routes that could support a premium super-high speed aircraft concept in the mould of HOTOL and Aerospaceplane.

 Boeing 757 Programme Gets a Lift With Launch of New Package Freighter:

Boeing’s 757 sales book got a boost during January with the purchase of 20 new 757PF aircraft (Package Freighter) by giant US parcel carrier, United Parcel Services. UPS also took an option on a further 15 aircraft and will use the 757 throughout the US to link smaller hubs not economically catered for by UPS’s larger wide bodies.

In all, UPS operates a total of 362 aircraft, all but 102 of which are leased. The fleet includes 747s, DC-8s and 727s, employs nearly 160,000 people and services 1,300 terminals and distribution centres using some 73,000 trucks. In all it is estimated that there are over 1,000 aircraft presently operating in North America in support of package freight services. The 757PF is a dedicated freighter designed to accept 15 standard 88×125″ cargo containers on the main deck. It also features a large side freight door in the front fuselage and a dedicated crew door. UPS will receive their first 757PF in September 1987 while all aircraft will be Pratt & Whitney powered.

FAA Issues Advisory on 747 Airframe Cracks:

The US Federal Aviation Administration issued a warning to 747 operators in early February following the discovery of substantial airframe rib cracks in the region of the lower deck forward compartment. It was revealed that PanAm, BA and TWA all found evidence of cracking while in one PanAm aircraft the cracking was so bad that essentially the metal had totally lost its structural integrity.

Boeing 747s first went into commercial service in 1970 and today there is estimated to be up to 200 aircraft that are thirteen years or older with many of them having flown in excess of 50,000hrs. Qantas has already inspected its 747 fleet and found no evidence of cracking and will introduce a tougher. more comprehensive airframe check system in line with other 747 operators.

Airbus to Increase A320 Production Goal:

Airbus Industrie is to increase the monthly peak anticipated production rate of its A320 from 6 to 6. 5 units by mid 1989. Airbus have been extremely happy with the acceptance of the A320 design and at end of 1985 held firm orders for 99 aircraft with options written against a further 164.

Both TAA and Ansett have ordered the longer range A320-200 which has a maximum takeoff weight of 72 tonnes as against 66 for the-100 version. Maximum payload range for both types is stated as 3,200nm and 1,900nm respectively. Airbus Industrie took orders during 1985 on 97 aircraft.

 Boeing Moves Closer to Launch- Ing 737-300L to Combat Growing A320 Sales:

Boeing are moving closer to a launch date for their 737-300L (Lengthened) to combat what they see as a continuing stream of sales to Airbus Industrie’s A320. In this class Boeing presently have the 737-300 with 110/ 149 seats and the much larger 757 with 178/ 239 seats. Boeing now wishes to develop a stretched version of the present 737-300 which could accommodate between 120/160 passengers though would more typically carry 145 as against 128 in the standard -300 in two-class configuration.

The 737-300L would be stretched both forward and aft of the wing root and would accommodate a fuselage sixty inches longer than the standard -300. Power would be supplied by either the 22,000lb thrust CFM56-382 or the 23,500lb thrust CFM56-3C. The new aircraft would feature a new Kreuger leading edge segment outboard of the pylon in addition to strengthening of the undercarriage and out-board wing section. Boeing will have to make a firm commitment to launch by this June if they are to meet their own deadline of having the new variant in airline service by late 1988.

Meanwhile, Boeing are hoping to make a final decision on the interior configuration of their 7J7 pro plan project by this May. Presently in the running are à six abreast single aisle arrangement and a two abreast twin-aisle layout. The two-aisle layout is reminiscent of the defunct ATMR of McDonnell Douglas during the late seventies and offers better interior at the expense of fuselage width.

Air India 747 Confirmed Lost Through Bomb Explosion:

Indian and Canadian aviation officials have now confirmed that the Air India 747 lost over the Atlantic last June was as a result of a bomb blast. To some extent, the evidence is still of a probable nature though all investigation points to forward fuselage breakup through unnatural causes. There was no evidence of fatigue failure and it is not thought that the accident was caused by fatigue similar to that recently discovered on several older 747s detailed elsewhere in Newsdesk.

Boeing Acquires de Havilland Canada:

Boeing has acquired de Havilland Canada for SCAN155M and will now make significant additional investments in the Ontario-based company to further strengthen its product base.

The name, de Havilland Canada will remain and DHC will continue to trade and operate as a separate company from Boeing itself. Boeing, will however be able to greatly assist DHC in future commercial dealings by using its considerable financial backing in both sales and after-sales support roles. Boeing also has high hope for both versions of the DHC Dash 8 aircraft and will plan to accelerate investment in the 50-seat Dash 8-300.

“More than 20 of Boeing’s current cus- timers now operate DHC aircraft,” stated Dean Thornton, President of BCAC following the announcement of the sale. Boeing will now seek to establish the Dash 8 as the premier aircraft in its category and will now be able to offer a range of aircraft from the smallest, in airline terms, in the Twin Otter to the largest in the 747-400. Production, and further enhancement, of the Dash 7 and Dash 6 Twin Otter will continue to meet the unique demands that these aircraft have been built to satisfy.

 British Aerospace Have Bumper 1985:

BAe had a bumper 1985 with the sale of 120 civil aircraft valued at over $1bn. Sales leader was the little Jetstream 31 with orders written against 51, including 3 to Australia’s TAA. The 146 jet was next with sales of 26 aircraft while the venerable Super 748 still sold well despite being in the twilight of its years. Total of 748 sales were 11 units with an additional 5 sales logged for the new ATP.

On the corporate side BAe logged orders for 26 125-800s which continues the success story of what must surely go down in history as one of Britain’s most successful aircraft programmes.

Boeing το Upgrade Rear Pressure Bulkhead of 747 and 767 Aircraft:

Following suggestions from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Boeing are to upgrade the rear pressure bulk-head on both the 747 and 767 wide-bodied airliners. Boeing have been conducting pressure tests for some months now and expect to implement a number of modifications designed to strengthen the basic bulkhead structure and allow alternative access to decompressing air in the event of a similar failure to that which occurred to JAL Flight 123 in August last year.

Boeing are also seeking to further protect the control surfaces from “catastrophic failure” in the event of a sudden decompression by enlarging the rear vent door designed for this purpose, modify and strengthen the hydraulic lines and to further strengthen the aft rear pressure bulkhead with radial stiffeners. Boeing will also evaluate procedures used to repair damaged bulkheads and advise airlines to increase their monitoring of the rear pressure bulkhead in an effort to detect any site cracking or fatigue.

General Electric Large Commercial Aircraft Engines Have Best Sales Year Ever:

In 1985 General Electric’s Aircraft Engine Business Group (AEBG) received orders for engines to power more large commercial aircraft than in any previous year.

AEBG received engine orders for 320 aircraft, to be powered by engines in its CF6 or CFM56 product lines. The previous high sales year was 1984, when the group received engine orders for 221 aircraft. The record year was largely due to the remarkable sales of the Boeing 737-300 twinjet, which accounted for 254 of the 320 orders. The 737-300 is powered by the CFM56-3 high bypass turbofan engine, a product of CFM International, a joint company of General Electric and SNECMA of France.

General Electric also met its schedule in certifying the CF6-80C2 and in delivering the first engine to Thai International Airways (refer p29 Jan AA) in 1985. After approximately three months of operation, -80C2-powered Thai International Airways A300-600 aircraft are achieving a 15 to 17 percent lower fuel burn than a comparable -50-powered A300 aircraft. General Electric plans to assemble and ship a total of 685 large commercial engines in 1986.

Concorde Celebrates Tenth Anniversary of Commercial Service:

January 21st, 1986 marked the tenth anniversary of revenue service of the Concorde SST. It was ten years to the day when a BA Concorde flight departed for Bahrain from Heathrow while simultaneously an Air France Concorde commenced its long journey from Charles de Gaulle to Rio via Dakar.

In those days it was hoped that Bahrain would represent the first port in a two-stop supersonic service linking Australia with the UK. The constant victim of political pressure and high fuel costs, Concorde has only really become economically viable these past three years though during 1985 BA alone earned some $A210m from its fleet of Concordes.

Since that day ten years ago over 800,000 people have flown on the BA aircraft alone, more than a half million more have experienced supersonic travel with Air France who presently has four aircraft (plus two in reserve) in active inventory. In that time Concorde has smashed many official and unofficial air speed records, among them London/Sydney. London/Cape Town and New York/London, the aircraft’s primary money-making sector. The existing transatlantic record stands at 2hrs 35mins which was set on January 1, 1983 and compares with a typical subsonic sector of around 6hrs 30mins.

Concorde’s unique speed advantage has kept it in the headlines throughout its ten years in service. Last December it flew at 1,490mph (2,397km/h), the fastest speed of any commercial airliner, thanks to tailwinds over the Atlantic. Concorde has also become a popular charter vehicle and this year is estimated to earn around 10% of its revenue from charters.

One such charter of special interest to Australia is that being promoted by Sydney travel agent, Allways Travel, who have hopefully two Concordes routing London/Bahrain/ Singapore/Melbourne/Auckland on the weekends of April 5/6 and 19/20 in support of Halley’s Comet flights. No doubt they represent excellent value but if you are not a fully subscribed millionaire then you might just find the round ticket, complete with a week in London, a little daunting at SA16,050!

Aerospatiale Press Their Case for a Concorde Successor:

On the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the scheduled airline service of the Concorde SST, Aerospatiale launched a low-profile campaign aimed at sowing the seeds of a Concorde successor. Aerospatiale remains unenthused by both the BritishHOTOL concept and the recently launched US Aero Spaceplane programme due to their immense development costs, the use of engine technologies that currently are unproven and the inability to conform to ever stricter noise guidelines at regular international airports.

Aerospatiale envisages an aircraft around 50% larger than Concorde that would be capable of flying sectors of up to 4,200nm that would include 500nm at subsonic cruise carrying a full payload of 200 passengers. The aircraft, which looks similar to Concorde, only with a cranked-arrow wing planform, would have a wing area of about 500 sq metres supporting a 220-tonne structure on a three bogie undercarriage. Power would be supplied by four variable-cycle engines each in their separate nacelles, these would be developed most probably by Rolls Royce and Snecma who jointly lead the field in this level of techno- logy with their original Olympus powerplants.

Aerospatiale claims that their Concorde successor would also comply with the strictest ICAO noise guidelines and feature excellent SFCs while at subsonic cruise over habituated land masses. Supersonic cruise speed would be Mach 2. 2 instead of Concorde’s 2. 0 while fuel burn, airframe weight, aerodynamics and noise would be targeted at being 50% more efficient than the nineteen-sixties designed Concorde.

Obviously, the proposal constitutes a degree of ‘kite flying’ by the French manufacturer to ward off some of the enthusiasm for the rival next-generation British and US programmes (reported elsewhere in Newsdesk) though as Aerospatiale point out most of the technical capability already exists to commence preliminary design proposals on the new SST so that it may enter service around 1999. Aerospatiale have also stated that it should really be an international venture with the best of American and European technology combining to produce an aircraft that would ultimately sell in viable quantities.

Delta Launch the MD-88:

Long wishing to create their own, purpose-designed 150 seat new generation airliner, Delta has decided to compromise and has joined with McDonnell Douglas to launch the MD-88 Essentially the MD-88 is an MD-82 with the more powerful Pratt & Whitney JT8D-219 and revised avionics. The MD-88 order, for 30 firm and 50 on option, is a blow to Boeing who fought hard to win the order with their 737-300 and proposed 737-300L. Delta presently leases 33 737-200s and will ultimately replace these with the 147-seat MD-88s as they enter service through 1987/89.

According to McDonnell Douglas, the MD-88 will have the potential to become the world’s first propfan airliner as the aircraft will be capable of retrofitting to propfan standards if the technology proves viable. MDC are planning to test fly a number of propfan powerplants aboard an MD-80 airframe next year and like Boeing. hope to be able to ascertain by 1988 whether or not the new technology will be employed in future airliner designs.

An offshoot of the MD-88 purchase is that Delta may well become involved in retrofitting their aircraft if indeed they are converted. Delta has an extremely competent engineering team and were the only carrier to convert their own DC-8-60 series aircraft to -70 specifications several years ago. The Delta order also comfortably places the DC-9/MD-80 ahead of the Boeing 737 in the twinjet sales race.

 First Flight for Boeing’s 767-300:

The first Boeing 767-300 made its first flight on February 3rd to begin an eight-month test flight program towards approval for commercial operation.

The extended fuselage 767 flew for three hours, and eight minutes while the initial flight tests were accomplished. Handling and bulleting characteristics and instrumentation were checked out between 10,000 and 25,000 feet altitude.

With the fuselage lengthened 21 feet (6. 4m) the 767-300 can carry up to 20 percent more passengers up to about 261 seats-and offer a 30 per cent increase in cargo volume. Stronger main landing gear, nose landing gear and wheel well and thicker metal on areas of the fuselage support the aerodynamic changes.

Airbus Looking At Long-Range A300-600:

Airbus Industrie is now making firm proposals to airlines on an extended-range version of the present A300-600. The new variant would carry additional fuel in a tailplane trim tank rather similar to that used aboard the A310-300. This would increase maximum takeoff weight from 165 tonnes to 170 tonnes and would offer a full passenger range of 4,200nm with reserves, nearly 1,000 farther than the current 600.

Meanwhile Airbus are looking to definitely launch their two newest aircraft, the TA9, now designated A330, and the TA11, now designated A340 either in March or at the Farnborough Air Show this September. Australian Aviation will be visiting Toulouse in March for a technical briefing on both types and will bring you a full update on their capabilities in the May issue.

Bae 146 Freighter Launch Imminent:

British Aerospace hope within the next few months to be able to officially launch their freighter variant of the 146 airliner. Development of the aircraft, which is already well underway at Hatfield, has been spurred on by the continuing rapid growth of the US and European overnight small parcel market. UPS recently announced an order for up to 35 Boeing 757 package freighters while more than two dozen wide bodied jets alone serve the US parcel market. The potential market for an ultra-quiet aircraft such as the 146 has never been better quote BAe.

The 146 freighter will use a -200 fuselage and the new Avco Lycoming ALF502R-7 engines, uprated to 7,500lb thrust, for the freighter in an effort to give the new variant field performance similar to the smaller -100 model. Primary benefit of the 146 freighters, claim BAe, will be its ultra-quiet operation, something that could ultimately see the freighter wearing Ansett livery and operating on ICAO aircraft noise-approved runways at Australian airports presently affected by curfews which are applicable to all jet transports irrespective of their actual noise footprint.

Air Show Tours:

Every enthusiast’s dream is to visit at least one of the major air shows in their lifetime. This year for the upcoming Farnborough and Oshkosh Airshows we know of three tours that would appear to be excellent value with air museums and other aeronautical points of interest included in the tours.

Thomas Cook and Yeti Tours are offering tours to Farnborough and regional air museums while Travelaw are offering a tour to Oshkosh, plus the Smithsonian, Boeing 747 factory at Seattle, Expo ’86 in Vancouver, Canada and Pearl Harbour, etc. Details of these tours can be found in advertisements appearing elsewhere in this issue.