Reece

Aviation will see the coming emergence of Japan as a potential major force in aircraft manufacturing initially in partnership with either US or European interests. Japan and Boeing are already involved with the 767 while a decision to build a new 150-seater together will most probably be eventually discarded due to the intense pressure this would place on existing Boeing programmes such as the 737-300/400 and 757. Indeed the latter aircraft, presently a slowseller, should begin to make significant headway later this decade as the ability of major airports to handle the now rapidly increasing demands of smaller high-frequency aircraft becomes more difficult. This is already occurring in the USA and was beginning to happen worldwide prior to the recession. Over the past three years the domestic airline catchword has been frequency with 737 and DC-9 type aircraft. This will begin to shift towards larger aircraft as more and more airports worldwide begin to feel the strain of ever-increasing throughput. That many 727s will ultimately be replaced by 180/220-seat 757s may well eventuate as the decade draws to a close.

This theory could upset the 150-seater market; though on the other hand many of the current sectors served by 100/120 seat aircraft might find themselves-ideally replaced with what today we perceive as the larger aircraft. There will still be a high demand for aircraft in the 100-seat category though. Hub and spoke may be another catchphrase of the early eighties but as any traveller will tell you, they want to get to their destination in the quickest, most convenient manner, which is not what hub and spoke is about.

Many older 737s, DC-9-30s and BAC 111s will be replaced by such new stars as the BAe 146 and Fokker 100. The older jets, providing they can overcome 1987 noise regulations, will be around for a long time though, as the modern well-maintained jet is operationally viable for a longer period than any previous airliner type.

To this writer though, the ‘lost opportunity’ of the previous five years will have been MDC’s decision to abandon the MD-90. McDonnell Douglas had a virtual captive market for replacing the seven hundred or so DC-9-30sstillin service. To have simply given this to both BAe and Fokker is incomprehensible. Not incomprehensible is the sales success of the MD-80. This excellent 150-seater will live on through the eighties as the aircraft that took many sales from the A320, the 737-300 and even the larger 757. MDC in the absence of an MD-90 are still actively looking at a propfan-powered 90/100 seater offering jet speed with turboprop economy over shorter routes. If this NASA/MDC programme should prove successful it would place the St Louis-based company in an excellent sales position through the nineteen nineties. Only time will tell.

Over in Europe, Airbus Industries will be busy cranking out three major programmes, the A300-600, A310 and A320. Next on the list is the TA9, a stretched version of the A300 in broad terms with a new wing. This aircraft fits in nicely with the inevitable crunch in airport slots and will offer seat-kilometre operating costs lower than anything in the industry. Airbus will also launch the four-engined TA11, an A310 fuselage with a new centre section, the TA9 wing and four engines in the 24,000 lb thrust class. This aircraft will offer an alternative to existing DC-10 and Tristar trijets over the long thin routes while its extreme range capability will make it ideal for the growing number of direct flights linking cities on opposing sides of the world. Airbus feel that both of these programmes could be launched before 1990 if economic recovery continues at the current pace.

Down amongst the smaller airliners, the 30/60 seaters, it will literally be a battlefield. There are too many contestants in this category for all to remain as economic programmes. That this market, by all predictions, has already contracted markedly since the pre-recession early eighties optimism of the various manufacturers will make sales a hard fought battle for all concerned. The most salient point in this market though is that few of the potential purchasers of these super commuters really are economically strong enough to sustain the investment required by what are relatively sophisticated airliners.

The used airliner market will always fluctuate wildly from year to year. Two years ago you couldn’t give 727-100s away, now you can’t get them and if you do you pay more than you would for a good condition 707 or DC-8! Upstart US airlines have absorbed large numbers of used 727s and 737s, DC-9s and more recently Fokker F28s. If deregulation should be exported from America then a similar demand could develop from a deregulated Europe, though few feel that realistically this will occur.

More profound will be the effect of a relatively large number of wide-bodied transports upon the market through the late eighties. Airbus, Boeing and MDC all see large rollover deals occurring on aircraft that are ‘too old’ for the up-market airline but ideal for the new or third world carrier. Already this is occurring and who can argue when anew7 47-300costsinexcessofonehundredmillion dollars? Air Lanka, as an example, will get a lot of mileage out of VH-EAA to pay back the best investmentofaround$24million! In some cases aircraft like EAA are barely halfway through their eventual life cycle. With fuel prices relatively stabilised in real terms, the emergence of the used airliner market will be one of the events of the later nineteen eighties.

So much for commercial aviation. The military will as always be seeking the proverbial quart in a pint pot, and generally getting it, thanks to the massive advances being made in electronics in recent years. Affordable AEW aircraft, small strike fighters such as the F-16E (XL), the F-20 and even BAe’s single-place Hawk all promise a high degree of capability in a small airframe. The F-20 as we write is still launched though and the long-term future of the cranked-arrow-wing F-16E is best described as that of a demonstration aircraft. More promising in the longer term is the forward swept wingGrummanX-29 and the aircraft types that will evolve later this decade to replace the F-15 and F-16 in USAF inventory. Weapons themselves will become ‘smarter’ at a more rapid rate due to the affordability of their micro-electronics allowing a wider range of launch platforms to be able to utilise stand-off attack. In essence, it will become easier to defend a position than to take it as the odds move more and more over to the defender, whether he be a third-world nation or a superpower. Some idea of this was gained when an internationally unimportant power such as Argentina was able to destroy Royal Navy warships using advanced (at the time) Exocet missiles. Similarly, the revolutionary AIM-9L all-aspect Sidewinder made the Sea Harriers’ task just that much easier. Technology is changing so rapidly that military aviation will follow the lead of the weapon, and its targeting system, rather than the other way round.

General Aviation will begin to improve on current performance as a demand for new aircraft materialises in the years ahead. Whether Wichita continues to build a wide range of single-engined piston aircraft though has yet to be determined. Many pundits feel that Beech. Piper and Cessna will largely go over to the more profitable corporate aircraft market while the future of private flying will be remodelled by what is presently loosely described as the ‘basic aeroplane’. This concept was outlined in Reece in our March edition and revolves around the fact that two- and fourplace singles nowadays are simply too expensive to purchase. Mind you, much of this is due to the exaggerated strength of the US dollar, which has increased by more than 50 per cent against the ten leading international currencies since 1980. The US FAA is also investigating the relaxation of the rules governing· the construction of home-builts so that they could be possibly mass produced with minimal or no input from the eventual owner. This would appeal to a vast majority of pilots who don’t consider themselves sufficiently mechanically endowed to build their own plane. Considerations of lack of space and time would get many more pilots into home builts if they could buy them largely pre-assembled.

General Aviation will survive the ebbing recession just as it always has, albeit in a leaner and more aggressive form. Flying training will be the home of change in the last half of this decade. The use of ultralights and a new generation of low cost two-place trainers (refer March Reece) will reduce, or at least stabilise training costs to the point where this market regains some of its lost momentum from the past two years. All in all the ultralight will be the vehicle of change in sport aviation, its influence will dominate GA in the years to come as many people venture into ultralights, then GA and ultimately back into a new class of basic aircraft as proposed by the FAA and EAA this year in America.

Australia goes into the later eighties with a united aircraft industry that holds a true promise for the future, certainly stronger than at any period since the early seventies. Offsets and the growing possibility of associate partnerships in viable military and civil programmes provides us with an opportunity that simply did not exist back in the mid-seventies. We will, like everybody else, be influenced by the overly strong US dollar in the coming two or so years which will place a considerable strain upon the funding of new equipment programmes, much of which comes from the US. This is instanced by the fact that this sector absorbed $150 million in the ’75/’76 defence budget as against $1100 million in ’83/’84 and a projected $2000 million by ’86/’87. Whether you buy Cessnas, Boeings or Hornets, in the current market they will cost escalate until our dollar begins to strengthen vis-a-vis the US currency.

Domestically, Qantas have already taken the plunge into a second aircraft type. A long overdue decision that will see them weathering any future recession better than the last where their all-747 fleet was too inflexible in maintaining viable payloads over the entire route network. TAA and Ansett will seek to replace their 150-seat 727s and will opt for either 737-300s, MD-83s, 757s or the A320-200. This billion-dollar order offers no favourites at the present time and while fuel prices remain stable and the US dollar so strong it is safe to propose that both carriers won’t be making any hasty decisions. TAA, while extremely happy with their fully depreciated DC-9-30s will be replacing the type well before the decade is out and this could look good for Fokker’s F100 while Ansett moves into the 146 camp to some extent.

One thing 1989 will see is the end of the two airline policy as we currently know it. Whether this will see East West as a real third airline with larger trunk route equipment remains to be seen but one thing for certain is that the once staid F27operator will ensure that whatever is passed into law it will be referred to more as a three airline policy!

The past few years have been some of the worst, in economic terms, that this great nation has seen in modern history. Hopefully the next five will herald a period of sustained growth, accord and peace. Only time will tell.

DofA CIVIL REGISTER NOW AVAILABLE THROUGH NEW SERVICE

Australian Aviation and the Department of Aviation have teamed to provide a more convenient, and less expensive, hard copy readout of the Australian Civil Register.

The new service commences in our giant 146-page March 1985 edition which will list in alphabetical mark order all aircraft in addition to their owner’s name and address. March issue will feature all aircraft registered A to K while the June issue, also of 146 pages, will list L to Z. Following issues will then list all applicable deletions, changes of ownership and additions to the Register to have occurred in the reporting period. We also hope to be able to introduce a number of additional services related to the DofA Register that will also be of great benefit to all those involved in our industry.

May I also take this opportunity to wish all our readers a very happy Christmas and may 1985 be as great for you as the past year has been for us. We have some great improvements planned for 1985 and we hope to be able to tell you about these in our giant March edition.

Good luck, good health, and see you in ’85.