Reece

Enter the politicians and the era of community action groups.

The problem with KSA, as with most major airports, is that it is surrounded by residential areas. Residential areas mean voters and in this case largely State and Federal ALP voters. When the ALP, at both levels, sat on the Opposition benches it was naturally content to win votes at any cost including endorsing even the most illogical demands requested of it by the numerous powerful and well-organised community action groups who had set themselves up with the sole intention of seeing KSA ultimately relocated.

When the Wran ALP State government took power in 1976 it naturally endorsed the anti-KSA rhetoric knowing that the real decision-making power lay with the Federal government of Malcolm Fraser. A game of political football commenced and eventually, the Fraser government found the courage to pursue the logical development of a new parallel north/south runway which would in effect make greater use of the unpopulated approach and departure routes over Botany Bay. This was good news for the beleaguered airline industry and the State Wran government even conceded defeat with grace knowing deep down that (a) it was the only rational and economical alternative available and (b) that in reality it would transfer more noise away from the suburbs rather than increase the problem.

Enter the Hawke Federal ALP government. Exit the second runway at KSA and let’s all form a search party for that rare beast known as ‘the alternative airport site for Sydney. ‘

We of course in the aviation world know that there is no alternative site suitable for a replacement for Kingsford Smith. Remember Galston? Can you honestly imagine the furore that will develop once a short list of sites is announced? Ten years ago both governments were looking towards Bringelly, to the west of Sydney, in those days it looked as if around 1200 people would have been affected by the development of a major airport at Bringelly. Today that population has soared. The people at Bringelly; Galston, Gosford or for that matter any other proposed site have purchased their land and homes . before an airport may be planned for the area. By contrast, it must be remembered that at KSA the planes were there long before 99 per cent of the urban population was. Aircraft have been flying out of KSA since the twenties with relatively heavy traffic flow since World War II. The people who now whinge and carry on about noise from KSA have chosen to live there of their own accord.

The residents of any potential second airport site however do not fall into this category. They will be truly worried citizens – worried about their resale values, worried about reclamation, worried about noise. These citizens will rally and in will rush the hordes of political trends and activist groups just looking for an issue to exploit. The residents will win.

What we are saying is that there will ultimately be no second major airport for Sydney, on environmental, economic and geographic grounds. With the abandonment of the second parallel runway at KSA all hope has now been lost of maintaining a viable situation into the nineties. Congestion will grow, costs to the airlines will soar and the ones who will ultimately suffer, as traffic overflying the suburbs increases, will be the very people who protested so strongly against KSA developments.

Such is the irony of life.

IS RECOVERY ON ITS WAY?

Are the world economies picking up? Certainly, most of the economic data emerging from the OECD would point to an upturn in the production of goods and services by the bulk of member nations. Inflation is declining in Europe, the UK and most importantly, the USA. People are investing again, buying homes, cars and white goods – and flying in planes again.

The strong gains experienced by American domestic carriers through March and April are good news indeed. Western Airlines saw an increase in traffic of 39 per cent during March while the bulk of carriers had no trouble exceeding a 20 per cent growth in uplift as against the same period of 1982. You don’t have to be an accountant to realise that a strong northern summer could transform the entire industry, not overnight but certainly within a year. There really is not a lot of excess capacity available despite the large number of jet transports parked in the Arizona desert. Many of these aircraft will never fly again due to environmental and fuel efficiency considerations while even a 10 per cent overall growth through 1983 will see airlines preparing to sign contracts on the new generation of fuel-efficient airliners.

In Australia the situation is different. We are heading into a cold winter literally, with little short-term promise of industrial and domestic growth and an inflation rate twice that of most of our trading partners. Our dollar is technically weak and unemployment has grown to a problem of insurmountable proportions. TAA and Ansett are looking at further short-term depreciation in the passenger market while a new Federal government is pressing them for genuine low-cost ‘no frills’ air services. If the big two don’t comply then it might be just the incentive the Federal government needs to licence airline maverick, Brian Grey, to do the job.

The introduction of DC-9 Super 80s into the EWA fleet operating an Australia-wide ‘no frills’ service would throw the established two-airline policy into disarray and would change forever the domestic airline system within Australia. It will be interesting to see how TAA and Ansett react to this situation. Certainly, the entire domestic fare structure is grossly overpriced and begging for traffic stimulation via discounted fares. The problem though, as US carriers can ably testify, is maintaining a viable yield in a discounted environment. Fare discounting can only ever work providing the uplift is increased proportionately. In our present economic situation that may be a real gamble.

PROMISES, PROMISES . . .

One could be cynical and hold the opinion that a politician’s promise, particularly at election time, is only worth the value of the paper on that it is written on. Already, a number of stated election pledges of the new government have been publicly scuttled without even a whimper of discontent from the opposition, the media or the voting public In view of this we thought it would be interesting to catalogue a few of the more pertinent promises made by the then opposition shadow transport minister Mr Peter Morris, just prior to the federal election. In three years’ time we will review the list to see how many of these promises have been honoured.

1. ‘High priority will be given to the introduction of low cost ‘no frills’ air services as an alternative to the existing system of expensive air services. ‘ This statement augers well for Brian Grey’s East-West Airlines, though when TAA trialed a ‘no frills’ service last year they, and Ansett, met with a fairly lukewarm response from the heavily discounted, low yield service.

2. ‘The major airlines will be required to reduce the incidence of parallel scheduling to give passengers greater travel flexibility. ‘ This is long overdue and should be relatively easy to organise now that TAA and Ansett operate such a mixed batch of aircraft types.

3. ‘Support will be given to TAA’s plans for operation of intrastate services in Western Australia. ‘ This has been long mooted and TAA has been battling for WA rights for many years, certainly a vote winner for those in the Prime Minister’s home State.

4. ‘An independent inquiry will be conducted into Commonwealth costs attributable to General Aviation and the level of cost

recovery charges. ‘ AOPA has revealed that whilst in the past two years air navigation charges to GA operators have increased by 34 per cent, the Department is claiming that is contributing barely 16. 3 per cent to cost recovery despite the one-third increase in air nav charges. Yet two years ago the figure stood at 17. 3 per cent. Something is wrong somewhere when the cost per aircraft flying hour in Australia (based on the DofA budget divided by hours flown) increases from $118 to over $200 in less than two years!

5. ‘Special consideration will be given to reassessment of the application date of the ‘two pilots’ rule for commuter aircraft on an aircraft-by-aircraft basis. ‘ This ruling will have a profound impact on the viability of many third-level services, particularly in the far-flung rural areas. On the positive side it will provide additional employment for pilots and provide a greater sense of security to passengers. At the time of writing, the introduction of the ‘two pilot’ rule, applicable for all commuter aircraft certificated with ten or more passenger seats, was due to go into effect on July 1st. At early May the DofA was not aware of any change to this schedule.

6. ‘A National Airport Authority responsible to the Minister will be established to plan, develop and operate Australia’s major airports. ‘ Exactly what this means has not been spelt out in any great detail at time of going to press. The progress, if any, of the NAA will be closely watched by all in the industry as it obviously intrudes heavily into traditional Departmental territory.

7. ‘Qantas will be given greater flexibility and freedom of operation in the management of the airline. ‘ Qantas for too long has been over-regulated. The carrier must be able to enter new markets of its own choosing and if it is to fly to southern Africa then it should be able to fly into the nation that 95 per cent of the passengers wish to disembark at and not at a strife-torn banana republic merely for the sake of politics. a. ‘Opportunities for the sale by TAA and Ansett of unused passenger capacity on Qantas flights operated across Australia will be examined. ‘ All three carriers could benefit if a rational and cooperative approach was taken to this long-standing problem. Could this also perhaps see Qantas cross-chartering

Ansett 767 and TAA A300 aircraft for selected medium-haul overseas sectors too small for 747 services?

Well, there we have it, just a few of the promises made prior to Labor’s election landslide. We’ll return in three years and see how many have actually taken wing.

OUT GOES THE FIXED WING FLEET AIR ARM

Gordon Scholes’ announcement during early May that the RAN was to lose its fixed wing air component came as no surprise to most defence observers. The Navy had been fighting a losing, if not well-orchestrated, battle since Malcolm Fraser offered the HMS Invincible ‘back’ to the Royal Navy.

Navy will now dispose of its fixed-wing fleet with the Macchi jet trainers and the two specially converted BAe 748 ECM aircraft being transferred to the RAAF in due course. The Skyhawks will be sold overseas while m the short-term four will remain as target tugs, a role that will probably be taken over by commercial operators at about a third the per-operating-hour expense. What specifically will become of the 19 Tracker ASW aircraft has yet to be decided. There is a move to employ them in the littoral surveillance role in place of the present civil Coastwatch charter fleet though a decision on this won’t be forthcoming till later this year.

All is not gloom for the FAA though. Those aircrew who wish to stay on in the services can transfer to the RAAF or Army Aviation. Certainly most Tracker crew would be better off in the relative comfort of such advanced craft as the P-3 Orions operating out of comfortable land bases. After being constricted in the confines of a Tracker for many long hours and returning to a pitching carrier with its impersonal and cramped accommodation one can understand why so many RAN crew are already aboard much of our LAMP force. The A-4G Skyhawk drivers similarly would be benefited by a move to the RAAF. . 1:he potential of operating the F-18 Hornet in place of the f1ft1es technology Skyhawk would be enough to get any ‘knucklehead’ excited.

In place of its fixed-wing air component, the Navy will concentrate on rotary-wing operations. The present fleet of Wessex and Sea King helicopters will remain, in addition to the introduction of new Aerospatiale Squirrel training helos this spring to replace the existing Bell fleet.

What to do with the eight Sea Kings, three new aircraft of which have just been delivered, has yet to be decided. These are dedicated ASW aircraft and could fit in well with a proposal put forward in April by Carringtons Shipyard of New castle. Carringtons, who built HMAS Tobruk, are offering a variant on that basic design which could operate as a blue water ASW helicopter escort for about a fifth the cost of a traditional aircraft carrier. Perhaps there is life still left in the career debate after all?

CAPITAL INJECTION A BOOST FOR TAA AND QANTAS

The approval of a capital injection to aid ailing TAA and Qantas is a move in the right direction For too many years both these carriers have been bled dry by successive Federal governments TAA was the primary beneficiary with a total allocation of $115 million while Qantas received $60 million, bringing its debt to equity ratio up from a stifling 92:8 to a more rational ?6:24. This will allow our national earner to save in the region of $10 million a year through being able to terminate several high-interest loans. Both carriers are expected to table significant losses for their last financial year while TAA has revealed that it now has two, not one, A300 aircraft up for sale.